“When you’re sitting there and waiting for gold to move anywhere!”
The ECB takes center stage today, and we’ll see what Super Mario’s got up his
sleeve today … rate cuts on the table, and a dovish presser … will it be enough
for gold to move higher, or does he disappoint? … overnight in Asia sees a very
tiny range of about $5 and change, no doubt due to waiting for the ECB.
Looking at gold trading action minutes before the ECB announced no rate cuts,
you have to ask yourself if gold is an honest market … 2 points here … 1) it’s not
a “market”, it’s a “manipulation scheme”, and 2) LMAO, cuz there is no such
animal.
It should be obvious to anybody with a single brain cell functioning, that the
market pop up to a new high for the day, was a simple “wipe the buy stops out”
to get short or get out of longs … just another “drive by” mugging by your
“liquidity providers”, who prove once again they are stone cold thieves … OK,
now what?
Well, we await the Super Mario presser … where, if he’s not uber dovish, more
disappointment sets in, and who knows what happens next … all I know for sure,
is that the scumbag bullion dealer banks aren’t here to hand out decent and/or fair
fills, and the slippage meters are set on “triple fuck you” MAX. And until we see
some kind of break, I don’t give a shit if this stuff goes straight up to $5,000.
“Well, that escalated quickly to the upside, didn’t it? … Well, that escalated quickly
to the downside, didn’t it”? … and boy-O-boy, did the banks ever do a hit job on
the sell stops going down … anybody thinkin’ you were risking “X”, just found out
and learned what I wrote about yesterday, when you don’t really know what you’re
risking until you get filled at the bottom of the move. Traders who got caught in
this shit … yea, this is gonna leave a mark.
I’ll just point out, for those accounts where bruise marks are readily apparent, that
market history and probability theory aren’t some arcane academic metrics to be
ignored … there’s a reason, why in the modern era, gold hasn’t seen 10 up weeks
in a row … ignore it, and pay the price.
I wrote the other day about the nature of the breaks we’ve seen in these last weeks,
especially in New York … specifically, there haven’t been any except off of
screaming highs … and while those breaks can be somewhat profitable when the
range hasn’t been blown out, they can be awfully dangerous as well when gold
gets extended like 2 people pulling on a rubber band … SNAP! … and we end up
with a day like today, where breaks beget more breaks and things get somewhat
ugly on the charts … when all you see are these breaks off of highs, it’s just a
matter of time until longs get punished and taken to the woodshed … and today
is one of those days.
And now that we’ve bounced a tad off the low, somebody tell me where we’re at in
the scheme of things … right, exactly where we were when the week started … a
little up, a little down … “a little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants”
… both longs and shorts crucified at alternately different times by the scumbag
banks … meanwhile, we go nowhere on the daily charts … and once again, on
paper, there is no justification for the FED to cut rates, unless they’re suddenly
going to “wing it”, and lose whatever little credibility they have left with those still
delusional enough to believe their bullshit … the problem of course, is that they
say they’re “data dependent”, when in reality they are “SP500 dependent” and
want the asset bubbles to continue forever … nobody wants to be there when the
Ponzi scheme implodes and take the blame … and quite frankly, that’s all any
Apparatchik gives a shit about … that and collecting a consulting gig after
propping banks up for years and spreading inside information.
Unless gold is moving higher for a reason, AND the range is relatively tight,
meaning there’s a ways to go before the day’s range can be expected to be put in,
the reward / risk ratio going down on reversal days is extraordinarily high and
large … meaning, you’re not risking what you’re thinkin’ you’re risking … off of
lows that give signals to buy, that’s a different story, but the cold facts of the
situation over these last weeks, is that we’re not getting these market situations
like we should … and that conclusion right there should make longs pause,
although history suggests 99.99% will be oblivious to the risks.
Over these last weeks, New York has had plenty of opportunities to at least probe
the bottoms of ranges coming out of Asia & Europe … on every occasion, it has
refused to do so … that right there implies very heavy long futures positions by
the spec community, something that is most definitely not healthy for higher price
levels … in other words, there is no “wall of worry” or skepticism for the market to
scale higher highs … all we’ve seen is buying panics in the “dark hours” or Asia
on rumors … I’m not in the camp that’s looking for gold to collapse, but I’m also
not in the camp that thinks trees grow to the sky either … they find a way to kill
people, like they’re doing today … and every time this stuff bounces a little, and
you might think the price declines are behind us, along comes some M1’s that are
downright nasty & vicious to the downside, and everything gets taken out in
seconds that took multiple minutes to go up.
To be perfectly blunt, today’s action is not only called for, but utterly stupid … it’s
purpose isn’t “price discovery”, it’s purpose is spec account destruction … I can
look at any group of M1’s from today, and all I see is maybe making “X”, but
risking “5X”, and given the nature of today’s drop, it should be no surprise the
number of algorithm buy signals currently stands at ZERO!
Our proprietary gold buying algorithm isn’t looking for perfect trades … those
don’t exist … simply, it identifies highly probable reward / risk trades … when they
aren’t there, there’s no trade … that doesn’t mean the market can’t go up/down, it
simply means I’m not trading “coin flips” … the very nature of gold when it’s
volatile, is much more wicked than other markets … it turns with a vengeance that
takes people’s breath away, and what once was profit is now a loss … obviously,
we don’t want that.
Noon in New York, and it’s been quite the clusterfark … I don’t see things
improving in the afternoon with Squid & the boys running things … another large
reversal day on the books, with nothing to show for it in terms of price … this is
simply “hurry up & wait” to next Wednesday’s FED meeting … would the
scumbag banks have it any other way?
Well, again, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it? … the entire day,
showed us in potential buy territory on the algorithm for about 25 minutes … out
of 7+ hours, that’s not very much time at all … since then, it’s been a complete
“shitshow circus” on the downside, with the M1’s to the downside particularly
vicious … and while we aren’t making coin on the long side, we aren’t losing
either … it looks very much right now, that the upside weekly gains are going to
stop at 9 in a row, tied with March 2006 for the longest since 1999 … not
unexpected.
While I don’t like sitting here watching paint dry, I’m not crazy about punching
buttons and losing money either … we bide our time and patiently wait … until
tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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