GOLD HANGS IN THERE [FOR NOW]

“It was a glorious weekend, don’t make me go back!”

So here we are, and this morning finds gold playing tag with the 100 & 200 hour

MA … overnight sees an approximate $15 range, which lately is below sub par,

but historically is quite wide … very tight ranges in FX, and oil is dead for now

… stock indices a little softer, but who cares?

Of course, all eyes are on the FED, as we worm our way to Wednesday, July 31, to

find out the latest from the faculty lounge Twits about interest rate cuts … and if

you think they know what they’re doing, please go back to the beach and keep

drinking … key levels going forward are 1440 & 1382, and breaches of either are

likely to pull traders back into action … from where I sit, it looks like heated up

“chop” to the end of July, with a bias to higher highs, as the world figures out

[finally] central banks are full of shit and have no answers.

Well, this day is a bag of wet grass … am still trying to figure out why Asia &

Europe took price higher to begin with, but that’s a different story altogether

given Friday’s NFP report, which was decidedly bearish for gold in the short term.

This is the sickest trading day in the last month or two, except for the 4th of

course, as it’s the Monday after an NFP report, and fireworks comes later in the

week … in other words, it’s nothing but a slow motion train wreck to the downside,

and has been all day … nothing quick and vicious, just a steady sandpaper affect

that wipes longs out after some time. I call this the “stair steps down” affect, and

it’s the worst action you can get.

There were algorithm buy signals today, but I didn’t take any of them … why?

… 1) I could see from the get go, trading action was very subdued, meaning

action could very well be very choppy, 2) very small M1 ranges compared to what

we’ve seen lately, telling me that this Monday is a dud, and 3) Europe & Asia were

higher, telling me New York was more than likely going to show a negative bias.

Still, if we could have seen any nice down move spikes, the algorithm would have

given better signals … as it is, some winners and some losers, and at the end of

the day some very small profits from a day that was most definitely not friendly to

longs … and without that small rally in the early New York PM that lifted price off

the low for New York, that took price back up to the 1398 level, the day would

have been a small loser … so, not unhappy at all I stayed on the sidelines

… reward / risk ratio today simply terrible.

And while it’s not unexpected to see chop after 7 straight weeks up, it defies

expectations to see it just sit here and do mostly nothing from the long side

… oh well, it’s gold!

Back at it tomorrow, and action should be better … until then mi amigos

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas