“That fear ship sailed a long time ago Donna!”
Markets pick up “memes” all the time … they come and they go, but right now,
the 800 lb. gorilla “bogeyman” is higher interest rates. You would think, but
that would be too easy, that the 10YR. Bond futures market would be the place
that the “fear” of higher interest rates would manifest itself … “well, you would
be wrong, cuz the market where the “fear of the fear” is most visible is the SP500
market, and every big money financial market participant on the MT4 right now,
has got their eyes glued to what this index is doing, and whether it’s melting down,
or behaving itself by going up”.
Most traders still don’t understand the modus operandi of the “Plunge
Protection Team” [PPT] in stock indices; it isn’t to absorb the selling … hell,
they aren’t gonna step in front of a wave of institutional selling … no,
they’re “job” is to punish the bat guano out of you when you’re done by
ramping stocks higher after it’s over, thus making you look and feel like an
idiot for the panic you sold into … nothing like sharp losses, and when
you’re done, the market explodes back higher … “yes, your hedge fund clients
will be thrilled to see you sold the bottom … nice job Mr. Expert”!
There are a million ways for the central bank manipulators to hide lower rates
on the 10YR. Treasury … the FED, for one, simply buys futures contracts and
takes delivery of bonds … all they gotta do is hit the CNTRL-P button and
print the money; sooner or later, though, the reality will eventually sink in if
higher rates are in the cards, but not so when it comes to stock indices, where
fear manifests itself quicker than any other market … that used to be the job of
the gold market, but that market is so heavily manipulated to the sell side, and
they’ve lost so many traders to other markets, it’s simply a ghost of its former
self and has become almost irrelevant.
But here’s the thing you need to understand; “it’s not the fact that interest rate
increases are being reflected, in a 2nd derivative sense to the stock indices, cuz if
you’re trading anything in FX right now, just cuz the SP500 is higher doesn't
necessarily mean EURUSD is gonna be higher as well … the CRITICAL KEY,
is the “GAMMA” of the fear of the fear index [SP500]; in other words, it’s the
rate of change in the fear of the fear index that matters. For example, the SP500
is only gonna affect EURUSD as it’s “screaming” in one direction or the other
… when that rate of change slows down, if you’re in a position, you got to
liquidate; cuz if you wait, you’re gonna be toast. That’s what “GAMMA” means
… and when it goes down, the market is gonna either top or bottom out. This is
what matters, and you must know this to be successful … it’s not enough for
stock indices to be inching along … they got to be screaming to be effective!”
Scanning the markets today, even the Chuckleheads in Asia look to the SP500
first before they ramp EURUSD higher, cuz they think “risk on” is back in play
… of course, these morons are wrong 90%+ of the time, so maybe they need
another yardstick, The problems start the second these markets decouple, and
it makes for some rowdy trading sessions as we’ve seen these last weeks, cuz
there are still an awful lot of traders, who like Generals, are fighting the last
war.
And from a volatility perspective, it’s only gonna get worse, simply cuz the
FED has painted itself into a nasty corner trying to massage the bubbles
they’ve created to deflate “softly … yea, good luck with that, as I’m sure
everybody will exit in an orderly fashion … if we do in fact get 4 more interest
rate hikes in the U.S. in 2018, I can almost guarantee a world-wide depression”.
And the impact on the U.S. Dollar and equities will not be kind & gentle with
low volatility.
Turning to today’s market … “hang on, let me check the SP500 first”
… extremely low ranges overnight, as it appears nobody wants to play in
EURUSD until U.S. stocks open … the entire MT4 universe of markets now
held hostage to the ups & downs of the SP500 … and getting caught positioned
in FX, on the wrong side of a stock indices melt up or “Thelma & Louise” only
exacerbate the moves in whatever FX pair you’re trading. We’re not quite
there yet, but the European session is becoming a joke; they’re simply “passing
the buck” to the U.S. session and in essence saying, “hey, we don’t have a clue,
here you do it … go ahead and do what you want”. And of course, the New York
based scumbag LP banks will be only too happy to oblige.
FED Chairman Spicoli speaks again today … “can he put his foot in his mouth
again for the second time this week and rattle markets some more”? With all
that’s going on today, it’s apt to be like waltzing through a rose garden naked
and blindfolded. “Well, that escalated quickly to the upside, didn’t it”? All it took
from Spicoli was the phrase, “I don’t see any wage pressure right now”, in his
Senate Q & A clown show, and BOOM!, the shorts in EURUSD are scrambling
for cover.
Yesterday, I mentioned a market’s “fingerprints” as an important criterion you
need to think about in your trading … in EURUSD, as I’ve discussed in earlier
blog posts, it has a retracement “fingerprint” in the range of 15 - 30 PIPS the
majority of the time, before the trend for the day resumes, and has the most
popular time frames of the cell values greater than 13 on the “Cardinal Cross”
of Gann’s ‘Square of Nine’ table. Directly below, another example of how these
cycles play out during trading, from earlier today.
And for newer readers, directly below the website URL to create your own
‘Square of Nine’; simply enter your start number [1], and how many levels out
you want the table to be.
When POLS of any stripe talk, markets get roiled … “why should today be any
different”? And here around Noon New York time, we’ve been in a tight range
with the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], and now new highs for the day
… EURUSD has been to the highs and lows multiple times, and the highlight
for the day has been the vicious down spikes off every rally. And now that the
scumbag LP banks have run the buy stops, the market retreats … same old
shit, different day.
Markets are tough enough on their own, but throw in a new FED Chairman
that nobody knows what’s coming next out of his mouth, and you got a recipe
for extremely quick, vicious spikes in every direction that make risk control
almost impossible … you know people are panicking in spades, but what you
have no way of gauging is the scope of the panic and what comes next, cuz if
you’re wrong, you will pay a heavy price in terms of loss.
I made two trades today … PAMM up a few bucks under 0.1%.
This is the third day in a row of tough trading from the long side, and even
though my bull/bear trend indicator has gone slightly bearish, from my
perspective EURUSD will have to break the 1.19500 - 1.20000 level for me to
turn bearish or neutral, from my current bullish stance on trading positions.
In long bull runs, it’s not unusual to see slight turns in the indicator before the
bull trend continues … we’ll see what happens.
EURUSD provided a couple of good “setups”, but the panic activity of down
moves and their subsequent spikes make holding long positions, while stocks
alternate between getting “monkey hammered” and vicious mini melt-ups, very
hard while maintaining risk control. Throw in FED Apparatchiks speaking as
you trade, and it’s a real possibility you’re literally 3 seconds away from
something nasty … so, when the market rally stalls, I liquidate … and of
course, after looking like a genius for a minute or two, EURUSD screams in
my profit direction … ho hum, trade for living and you’ll either get used to it
or go insane … [“I think I’m OK … Fido, what do you think? … why is he
running”?]
Meanwhile, new “monkey hammered” lows in the SP500, yet EURUSD is near
the high … how does this happen? Well, it’s going down mostly in a slow
manner, and not plunging … the “gamma” of the decline is not high, it’s steady,
so the “big money” in the EURUSD universe says, “who cares”? [so far at least]
One thing I want to correct from yesterday, is that tomorrow is not NFP Friday
… that comes next Friday, which means maybe we can finally have a normal
day without either a double reversal, “doji”, and/or FWD … yea right.
While intraday volatility in the Asian & U.S. sessions is very good, Europe
sucks … daily ranges are still running rather low, making getting long near the
bottom very tough, cuz you’re risking new lows on spikes that can come so fast
it makes your head swim … just take a look at today’s interim lows, for
example, to see what I mean, and if you’re long, the stop takes you out and when
you literally “blink your eyes”, the price is back to where you got long from and
you’re wondering, “WTF was that”? So, while I’m not disappointed in today’s
results, given the trades general insanity today surrounding FED Chairman
Spicoli’s Senate “chit chat”, I’m hoping ranges can expand to the more normal
70 - 90+ PIPS, cuz I really don’t like fighting low probability events. So, we’ll
see what tomorrow brings, but the main thing from today is this; “we’re up
money in a very tough trading environment … that’s all that matters” … it’s
afternoon in New York, and trading has slowed, even with the SP500 getting
whipped lower 15+ handles quickly … I’m outta here … ‘till tomorrow mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
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