A ‘GOLDEN RULE” DAY

 

“When you make the rules, you can order anything you want!”

“Them that has the gold makes the rules”... and with the ECB on tap 

tomorrow morning for the week’s big market moving event, today sees 

scumbag LP banks & their hedge fund pals shove the market anywhere they 

want with abandon … and when the balance in their equity run has more 

commas than you have zeroes in yours … “yea, they can pretty much do what 

they want”, and that “want” means plenty of stop hunts & mystery ticks to 

screw with the retail spec community … you can forget any kind of trend 

today.

This was one of the worst trading action days I’ve seen in a while … very tight 

range until Europe closes, and then a little downside just to pick off some sell 

stops … no, what makes today a horrible trading day is the intraday action; 

very “choppy” with extremely thin conditions … more times than I can care to 

count, we saw EURUSD go 5 - 7+ PIPS up/down within a second or two, and 

then come right back … rinse, repeat a gazillion times, and you got a decent 

synopsis of the day’s activity … a very hard day to judge with almost … almost 

… zero “setups” that meant anything.

Tomorrow, of course, is the big event of the ECB interest rate meeting and 

presser, starring Super Mario, and from where I’m sittin’, EURUSD is primed 

for a big move … if we go significantly lower, there will be some serious blood 
in the street, as the fourth trip up to 1.25 has failed … If we go significantly 
higher, the stops above 1.25 could be potential “gang busters” … sitting here 
around the 1.23850 - 1.24100 area, it’s a real possibility some major fireworks 
get set off tomorrow morning … in any event, it will make today’s pitiful 
trading range and action be forgotten quickly.

One trade today … PAMM up slightly, but nothing significant.

Throughout the entire day, I only saw one “setup” I thought gave me the edge 

… everything else was a literal “coin flip” … but again, considering the day 

we’re in, my long position moved in my profit direction but immediately stalled 

… and again, once I liquidated, I looked like a genius for about 1 minute before 

it took off to the upside, albeit only very modestly and briefly. No regrets on my 

part, too be sure, cuz you should know by now what happens when you hesitate 

to liquidate when you’re supposed to. It’s about an hour after my trade, and 

EURUSD is sitting right where it was an hour ago when I got long … “yea, it’s 

that kind of day”. Now, though, Europe is closed and it’s simply the U.S. session, 

where I don’t expect much to happen … yes, we’ll get some position squaring, 

but who knows how that shakes out … it looks to me the range for the day is 

in, and all that’s left going forward into Asia tonight is trouble.

Outside of the “Nork” news yesterday, today is what I expected yesterday to be 

like before SHTF. ECB tomorrow and then NFP on Friday, so definitely some 

market moving events that will shape things going forward into next week as 

well … looking at the week on Sunday night, I figured Tuesday and Wednesday 

to be pretty much nothing days, without much in the way of drama … we got 

the “Nork” news, and Cohn’s resignation from President Trump’s Cabinet, but 

markets aren’t paying attention to that right now, and instead are focused on 

what to expect from the ECB and the NFP on Friday. Quite frankly, walking 

away today up a “penny” is a victory in and of itself; this day had “trouble” 

written on it before Europe even opened.

Some days, you just have to bring “situational awareness” to the table and 

realize it’s going to be a nothing day … that doesn’t mean, however, you can 

ignore the probabilities of a “doji” or “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] and take 

the other side … doing that opens you up to tremendous stop risk on the wrong 

side of the market … “just ask some shorts today how that high for today was put 

in, and where their buy stop got filled … ditto for longs with stops below 1.24000 

on a couple of occasions … there’s only about a 3% - 5% probability of a “doji” 

on any daily candlestick, so why take a trade that only has a 5% success rate? Yea, 

it’s the day before the ECB meeting … so what? … show me the rule that says 

“doji’s” always happen right before the ECB meeting, cuz the last 2 meetings it 

didn’t happen either”!

Bottom line is simple: “take the setups if they are present [they weren’t]; make 

some money … run for the exit”! Now, leave it alone ‘till tomorrow’s “main 

event”. As I have said and written before, all that matters is “up money” 

… how much doesn’t matter, cuz getting rich from trading is a function of not 

getting “whacked”, and not counting profits while you are in some position; let 

the market tell you when to leave. “And trust me, some folks today got 

“whacked” … needlessly so in my opinion, but you simply can’t fix stupid in some 

traders who consistently do “stupid shit”; and when you talk to them as they are 

crying in their beer, they swear they’ll never do it again … fast forward some 

weeks or a month or two, and it’s the same shit all over again … problem isn’t 

trading, the problem is mental, and they simply can’t give up bad habits that 

destroy themselves … they mistakenly think every day is “Christmas” when it 

comes to markets, and whether they realize it or not, their risk profile goes 

exponential at exactly the wrong time, and then … BOOM! … the hammer of the 

trading Gods comes down and destroys those they first blind with greed … you 

think I’m kiddin’? … if you’re a losing trader, changing your trading habits is 

one of the toughest challenges you’ll ever face”.

And it’s the purpose and premise of the website, not just with my published 

papers and research, but with this blog as well, to shine light on what matters 

in trading, and how to get all of you who are serious about markets, out of the 

 “Pudding Business”, and doing that starts with your first priority 

… successfully control risk by only putting money at risk in high probability 

of profit success trades … you do that, and you got no worries going forward.

EURUSD has slowed down here in the NY afternoon … day is over as far as 

I’m concerned … we’ll see what Super Mario brings to the table tomorrow; as 

always, with him you just never know what comes out the Pie Hole when he 

starts the “blah blah yada yada” during the presser … I’m outta here … until 

tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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