MARKET PERSPECTIVE

 

“I WANT to see; I THINK I see … reality is a little different!”

What do you see when you look at an M1 EURUSD candlestick chart? “And 

while I will get a thousand different answers from people across the trading 

spectrum, there won’t be one out of ten thousand who can accurately predict 

what my answer will be”. To end the suspense, here’s my answer; “What am I 

looking at? I’m looking at a chart 10 million other eyes across the world are 

looking at, at the exact same time as me, and they all have one goal … figure 

out where price is going next. So, how’s that workin’ out for the 90%+  of 

people who supply the market with money”?

Cuz what the vast, vast majority of people see when they look at a chart, is 

exactly what they want to see, not what they need to see. “And like the guy in 

the pic above, you’re already thinkin’ it before you even see it. You’re thinkin’ 

of profits, and how everything is lining up for a nice move, cuz all of your 

textbook indicators, which by the way 5 million other people use as well, are 

saying go … until price violently jerks the other way some minutes later and 

stops you out, right where all the other retail stops are as well … and now that 

you’re out, the market comes roaring back and makes a new high/low, and you 

feel like a chump … congrats! … you’ve been played like a violin”.

When I was on the trading floor all those years, the majority of traders in the 

pits were dumber than a bag of carrots … yet, they consistently made money 

over the guys who would wander in from the business world, scientific 

community, or the legal and medical professions, who got “whacked” 

consistently and then were gone … how is this possible? “It’s possible cuz 

trader A, who barely graduated High School, and couldn’t tell livestock from 

preferred stock, and can barely utter 3 words in a string without an “F bomb” 

of some kind, has discipline & patience, knows the “setups”, and has a fear of 

having to be in the “Pudding Business” if he screws up. Trader B is a biz 

professional, with an MBA, and thinks he can 1) outsmart the market, and 

2) can “think” his way out of trouble at crunch time” … usually within 1 -2 

months, they’re gone.

Today, all anybody has is the electronic trading platform, and whether you 

use MT4 or some other platform, we all see the same stuff. And while I could 

probably write an entire 500 page book on the subject, let me condense most 

traders losing money problems into a single thought … one way or another, 

stripping away the bullshit, you get to the core of the onion, and here it is;  

“you absolutely cannot buy a rally, or sell a break in price and expect to 

consistently make money for a living”. And quite frankly, I don’t care whether 

you use my algorithms or not or whatever else you use for your criteria 

… when in fact do you get long and when do you get short? … “go ahead, take 

a look”. And after you get into a position, do you use the spikes in your profit 

direction to liquidate, or do you get greedy and want more? “Raise your hand 

if I’m hittin’ a nerve here? … hmm, that’s a lotta hands in the air”!

Cuz the dirty little secret about being a professional trader, is that you’re 

never satisfied with your day … there’s always things I coulda done better, 

but didn’t … “Hint: go put on your big girl panties and deal with it, cuz it 

comes with the territory 24/5/365 … and those that dwell on profit, instead of 

controlling risk, don’t really understand the fire breathing dragon they do battle 

with every day  … this biz is simple, it ain’t easy; and the reason it ain’t easy is 

cuz of all the failure you have to internally deal with day after day, all the while 

making money … it’s why I have said before, you have to learn to successfully 

fail … but, this isn’t a genetic trait, it’s very much learned, and the biggest part 

of that “learning” is to not care about price in the market you trade, and don’t 

buy spike rallies or sell spike breaks and “chase” price like a dog chases a car 

… instead, buy breaks in bull runs and sell rallies in bear markets, and use the 

spikes in your profit direction to liquidate … it’s where you get your best fills 

from the scumbag LP’s, and it’s how you make money”!

Turning to today’s market … well, the Italians voted for their 90th 

government since the start of the twentieth century on Sunday… yea, amazing 

… and almost like the other 89 times, nothing gets resolved … all they voted 

for was confusion & chaos … a little volatility in EURUSD as a result, but the 

800 lb. gorilla in the room this week is the ECB interest rate policy decision on 

Thursday … like last time, Super Mario will figure out what to do and say at 

his presser Thursday morning, about 5 minutes from crunch time.

A very weird trading day … it seemed like trading action was in slow motion 

… a very herky-jerky flow to the bid/offer for most of the day. Of course, as 

I’ve written previously, what was once “tail risk” is now normal trading 

activity, and what once was normal trading activity is now “tail risk”, so it 

shouldn’t be any surprise to see our friend the “Flying Wedge of Death”  

[FWD] for almost the entire European session … only the SP500 melt up at 

the European close to click off buy stops in EURUSD saved the session from 

being without zero drama.

Three trades today … PAMM up a few dollars under 0.1%.

All three long trades had decent “setups”, and none presented any sort of a 

problem against the position … the problem came once it moved into profits 

… it simply refused to move any further … “and I can tell you right now, just 

like in the trading pit, when it’s supposed to be moving in your profit direction 

after entry and it isn’t, you don’t “think” about liquidating, you liquidate 

… thinking will turn you into “roadkill” … I’ve already done the thinking away 

from the market, and there isn’t room for further thoughts about “what if” … it 

has to be instinctive”!

Tomorrow and Wednesday are apt to be like today, most likely with a smaller 

daily range, but we’ll see … as we work our way towards Thursday mornings 

ECB clusterfark, conditions should get a bit more choppy and chaotic. In any 

event, I’ll deal with it and move forward … another day another dollar 

… we’ll see what tomorrow brings … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi 

amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below. [Note: Consolidated PAMM results for 

2018 are now in the “Download Links” section over in the right-hand column 

for January & February.]

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND

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“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN

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START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO

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