“EURUSD: Testing your sanity each and every day.”
There are only 2 rules in FX; 1) check your sanity at the door, and 2) there
are no rules in FX … and as the intraday volatility picks up to levels not seen
since the Greek crisis in EURUSD, it only makes things more insane …
Today being a very good example.
I got to my computer screen a few minutes after the European open … I
missed the low at 08:15 server time, and got to trading about 5 minutes later.
And while the low today came off quickly, that’s the only thing about it that
you could look at and say, “well, that might be a low”. No bullish engulfing
pattern, no nada … simply a quick move of about 10 PIPS … and then the
rocket climb upward, that saw no retracement whatsoever until we are about
110 PIPS higher above 1.24 … “Oy is an element best avoided”!
And the speed & scope at which up spikes go higher off very small
retracements [3 - 10 PIPS] lasting a couple of M1’s, is truly astounding … if
you look at today’s M1 candlestick chart, there are dozens of M1 up spikes
10+ PIPS and higher that dot the landscape … truly treacherous &
dangerous. Add to that, as I’ve said before, if you happen to buy on the uptick,
the slippage from the scumbag LP banks is horrible … and quite frankly, even
if you buy on the downtick, it doesn’t guarantee a decent fill, only a better
chance at one … ditto with liquidations as well.
And here we go again with POL’S opening their Pie Hole; today’s installment
of abject stupidity, none other than Mnuchin, who now says, “Of course, I
absolutely favor a strong dollar over the long term”, and it’s a race to the
downside in EURUSD… nothing like 80 PIPS down, 120 PIPS up, and now
60+ PIPS down, with very little in between … “Any of you bigger players got
any capital left, now that both sides of the order books have been taken out and
shot in about 3 hours”?
Meanwhile, now that we are in the New York afternoon, trading has ground
to a halt around the 1.23850-ish area … so far, the market isn’t seeing any
more big spikes, up or down, but a slight drift sideways to up, and the “talking
heads” I’m sure, will now say everybody is waiting for the “State of the Union”
address tonight with President Trump … and with the market officially up for
the day, about 5 - 7 PIPS as I write, “hey, just another unchanged day … right”?
There’s no way I can predict intraday volatility, just as there is no way I can
predict when one of these asshat POLS shows up in front of a camera and
says something stupid that roil markets … “apparently, Mnuchin owes
somebody some money, otherwise why state the obvious? … what’s the point”?
Simply put, volatility begets more volatility, and today is a good example of
that … once shorts felt trapped, and we passed the early 50% retracement
line around 1.23610 on the upside, volatility ramped higher again. Remember
what I have always said; “he who panics first, gets to panic again later”. Not the
best choice, obviously, when you’re getting “monkey hammered”, but better
than waiting for far worse results. And if you weren’t participating in
EURUSD today, trust me, things went out of control rather quickly.
A couple of trades today in this hyperbolic volatile clusterfark … neither got
what I consider good fills on either entry or liquidation ...not that they were
horrible, except to say they weren’t the usual “right on the money” I am
accustomed to getting even when it’s volatile … no matter, the PAMM is up
just a couple of bucks short of 0.1% on the day. And while I would have loved
to capture more, this is the kind of day where about 99.99% of traders got
‘whacked” one way or the other, and wish they had stayed in bed … to be up
anything in this clusterfark is a miracle, that’s how bad the price action was
earlier.
I have said before, but it bears repeating until I’m convinced you have it
tattooed on the back of your eyelids so you can see it while you sleep:
“successful trading begins and ends with risk … identifying it, controlling it, and
then trying to eliminate it the best you can … only then does profit matter, but it is
always secondary. Risk can be sharply curtailed by concentrating on “trade
setups”, and not by traditional technical analysis or the “fun-der-mentals”; those
only allow you to win enough to get you to come back after you make another
deposit into your account after you got whacked, for the umpteenth millionth
time. Think about it … no trade is worth getting whacked … why? … cuz the
market will be here tomorrow and every biz day after, and opportunity is always
infinite … your capital, though, is finite”. And what this means, is simple;
“don’t chase a market … look for the setup, cuz that’s where the highest
probability of profitable trades lie … do you end up missing some? … sure, so
what? … would you rather get whacked and lose money, but you were right it
was going up today”?
And while I’m not happy about the lack of setups today to get long, it is what
it is, and we just move on to tomorrow … yes, still made money, and sure,
there are tons who would trade places after getting whacked, but I expected
more from today and didn’t get it. Tomorrow’s another day … back at it to slay
the market dragon once again … I’m outta here … ‘till tomorrow mi amigos …
Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!
No comments:
Post a Comment