“Surf’s
up … and the 2017 “Magnificent Seven” volatility stats are available!”
Over
in the “Download Links” section of the website, in the right-hand column, I’ve
posted the “2017 THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN SUMMARY
VOLATILITY TABLE”. In this table are volatility stats on 2 key time
periods; 1) 6 year [2012 – 2017] weekly data, and 2) 2017 results for the 08:00
– 16:00 server period [the busiest 8-hour period of the day], from the MT4 Turnkey
Forex Live server. This table is from my shared folder file at box.com, and is
available to anyone free of charge, no strings attached; simply follow the link
and decide whether to view online or download to your PC, laptop, tablet,
and/or phone. The file is in Adobe PDF, and supports any and all OS platforms
you may be running with the free Adobe PDF viewer.
There
is a wealth of data in this table I’ll be commenting on in the next few days …
I urge everyone to 1) read the data, 2) study the data, and 3) THINK about the
data for your FX market and the ramifications for your trading. I got to tell
you, “Cousin It” burned the midnight oil getting this thing done over the
Holidays while I was sick with the flu … it’s a shipload of work and compilation,
and I make it available to traders, not because I’m loading my website up with
useless data to impress Newbies, but because there is very valuable information
for you, that otherwise on the surface of things, you would entirely miss. I’ll
start tomorrow with an analysis of EURUSD & USDCAD, and point out some of
the things hidden in the data. As always, any questions/comments about the
table or the data, simply email me and I’ll get back to you ASAP with a
personal response.
One
last thing: the raw data for each market, that makes up the table, is being
packaged and formatted for easy viewing and/or download. Again, it’s a ton of laborious
work, and takes more time than you know, and there weren’t enough hours in the
weekend to complete it. I’ll be posting the raw data, for those interested in
studying it, next weekend … most likely on Sunday, the 14th via a “Special
Update” blog post.
Turning
to today’s market … so, the trading world comes back today from a long
Christmas & New Year’s Holiday … bosses from the scumbag LP’s are back
making life miserable for the “Pudding Business” hacks who inhabit the FX
trading desks, and it’s back to general thievery, as somebody’s got to pay for
the debauchery in Ibiza … well, here we are almost 4 ½ hours into this cluster fark from the European
open, and the market is about a handful of PIPS away from where it started. The
“Chuckleheads” in Asia goosed EURUSD early, then faded themselves late, so that
at the open we got about a 60 PIP range; which, is large as of late, but more
importantly it pretty much ruins the “setup” for short positions; why? … cuz
unless you think EURUSD is gonna put in an 80 – 100+ PIP range today on the
downside [possible not very probable], a great many algo short signals aren’t
going to work below the 50% retracement line, simply cuz the spikes up will
drive you to liquidate … ignore the spikes up, and you risk the 3rd
or 4th spike up as your liquidation point, and a loss a lot bigger
than you had anticipated.
And
if this is the great return to trading, the world is in trouble … sure, some
spikes, both up and down, but 90% of the M1’s are pathetically small in scope …
in other words, outside of the long liquidations, short covering, and very small
sell stops, there isn’t a damn thing here of interest … maybe that changes come
the New York open, and/or today is just a “resting day” from the “thievery ramp”
seen since Christmas morning … in any event, with no news due for release, and
a daily range that is already around 70 PIPS, about the only hope for any tradeable
action comes from potential sell stops from position longs; the bounce off
these lows, if the dealers can get the market there, should be good. Other than
that, I don’t see a sustained move higher, back over the current 50%
retracement line @ 1.2017 area.
Well,
knock me over with a feather … after 4 … count ‘em … 4 new lows from 84 down to
59, somebody show me any sell stops … what we got was as painful a move lower
to capture a profit that you will ever see … no stops, but simply an orderly
move lower like watching paint dry; I might as well have been at a penny ante
bridge tournament at Aunt Bea’s house over in Mayberry … and what amazes me,
especially after these last weeks of a frenzied move higher of over 400+ PIPS,
is that on the way down there are no stops of significance … we had 4 new lows,
and after each one, the market just sits there minute-after-minute within a PIP
to PIP and a half of the low … “sure,
take your time deciding if you want to get long here at the low; walk the dog,
grab some eggs for breakfast, scan the financial press, and get back to us … we’ll
be here for you, OK”? Wait … what?
I
kept waiting for a spike down … something “unorderly” … something fast &
vicious, to the tune of approximately 10 – 15 PIPS, that bounces quickly at
least 6 – 8 PIPS to get long for a decent rally. Being short the whole of the
day from the European open is dangerous; quick spikes up will kill you [or at
least make you feel like you’re being mugged], and unless you’re willing to
trade ALL the algo short signals, you have no way of knowing which will work
and which won’t; in short, you’ll need those couple of nice small moves down to
make up for the losses on the others that got squeezed. Add it all up, and you’re
right around break even. Instead, it’s better to “special situation” any new
lows with long positions on stops … “there’s
only one problem today; we didn’t get any sharp moves lower … none, zip, zilch,
& zero. Ok, but if you take long algo signals near the low for the day, you
run the risk of getting stopped out on a new low via a stop hunt … the very low
you want to buy … and that’s the problem below the 50% retracement line, if you
choose to get long via the M1 signals”.
I’m
sitting here, and watching EURUSD sit within a PIP or two of 1.19600 for about
15 minutes, and I’m left wondering, “where
the hell are the stops? We gonna just sit here and go lower still? Ok, let’s do
it, cuz I’m ready when you “Thelma & Louise” this stuff lower … and then
nothing but a slow ramp up to the low 80’s, leaving me stunned. Is George Costanza
in the building”? Cuz here’s the deal: “no
way am I getting long in the 60’s, with a stop in the 50’s, only to get blown
out at the bottom on a spike down, and 2 seconds later EURUSD is back to the
mid 60’s … now what? Get long again? How do you make this back going into the
NY afternoon, with Europe close to closing? It’s called getting “played” by the
scumbag LP’s & large hedge funds … no thanks, I’ll wait”.
And
so, from the looks of the daily candlestick, a large down day that hints at a “slam
dunk profit-a-rama” by being short,
only there are 2 very big problems; 1) 60 PIPS of the 93 PIP range was in the
Asian session, and 2) every low made during the European & U.S. sessions
[so far, 5 in total], was by tenths of a PIP before rallying some, and every
low saw trading action that stayed for multiple minutes at that low; the low of
the day at around 1.19590 saw trading action within a PIP to a PIP and a half
for 15 minutes! And this is a low? “I swear,
some days I think I’m living in another universe, cuz trading action is so
weird. I realize that in the hyper dimensional world of probability theory,
everything must happen eventually … otherwise, events could be considered “guaranteed”,
and all of us know that in financial trading that is impossible … but still,
highs & lows are NOT distributive [price over time], they are unique “singularities”
where almost nobody has the time to make the trade at the extreme price of the
day. And today we get this BS? George Costanza to the white courtesy phone
please”!
Well,
another new low … however, just like all the others, there’s nothing below the
low to drive it lower, so that only means a rally, which we’ve seen in the last
few minutes … we’re at that point of the day, where from here on out it’s a
waste of time.
I
did make one trade today … a long position with a very small profit that came
back and I liquidated … other than that, I waited for the “special situation”
trade from the long side that never came. As it stands now, the market is about
10 PIPS from the low, so there is a real possibility late in the day EURUSD
could get bombed to a new low on sell stops … don’t know, we’ll see. The market
feels like there is more to the downside … “trust
me, the scumbag LP’s know where the sell stops are, and they will get them …
either later today or tomorrow … all that selling they did last week up between
1.20500 and 1.20800 has to be bought back somewhere, and retail & institutional
sell stops are what they look for to liquidate”. A very frustrating day,
but welcome to the club … I’ll attack it again tomorrow … I’m outta here …
Onward & Upward!!
PAMM
spreadsheet directly below.
Have
a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW
OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION
IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR
JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE
TO SUCCESS”!
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