IT’S A MAD WORLD

 

“Some days, it’s better to not ask questions.”

Today starts off a round of U.S. employment numbers, first with ADP later this morning & then tomorrow’s Department of Unicorns & Fairy Tales report on how many bartenders were hired by Applebee’s & Chile’s last month. So far, about 4 – 5 hours into this clusterfark, it’s been another strange day; you would think that with ADP at 8:15 A.M. EST, market players would be hesitant to shove EURUSD higher, given the fact that a good solid number above consensus of 190K would probably see the pair take a tumble.

I’m not one to pay much attention to “fun-der-mentals”, simply cuz you can’t tell me what they are in totality … nobody can … but seeing EURUSD challenge 1.21 again today seems like a stretch … whoever is muscling this market higher into buy stops [and they been doing it all morning so far] either want to get short on the other side, or has a major opinion that EURUSD is going much higher. All I know for sure is that the “Christmas Heist” down to the 1.15500 – 1.16000 level was no accident of the “machines”, but was deliberate market manipulation. Other than that, it seems odd you would want to buy billions before U.S. employment … somebody here is gonna get hurt, and you can bet your last dollar it won’t be the scumbag LP’s. “Here’s hoping the Dukes have better luck in EURUSD than they did in orange juice”!

ADP out much better than forecast 250K vs. 190K jobs added … yet, somebody is bidding EURUSD higher … appears to me like someone is “doubling down” on getting the buy stops above 1.20820 & maybe even 1.21000 … given the very strong data, and tomorrow’s “official” report, which most likely will confirm ADP, it’s amazing to me EURUSD isn’t 100 PIPS lower down in the 1.19’s somewhere. Fact is, Europe can’t compete with the U.S. in terms of jobs, economic growth, or rate hike increases, so why the massive buying spree since Christmas?

I’m not one to stick my “head in the sand” and say it can’t go higher … it most surely can … by the same token, this is a market that needs “give & take” from the dealers to the traders … granted, for most, it’s give and the LP’s take … but this straight up ramp, with no end in sight via these stop hunts is gonna end ugly if it keeps going like this … this isn’t a cross pair that goes 1000 PIPS, and sooner or later, and my guess is a lot sooner than most think, if EURUSD does in fact breach 1.21, you’re gonna find all kinds of Apparatchik Pie Holes from the ECB suddenly “talking down” EURUSD and throwing “cold water” on inflation expectations to future rate increases … what could possibly go wrong?

Ok, whoever was “gunning” for the stops @82 … well, now you got ‘em … now what? … market moves to 84 and is immediately back to 80, and then into the 70’s … quite frankly, this makes no sense whatsoever … I don’t want to be long up here and I don’t want to be short either; neither position looks good from a reward/risk standpoint. The amount for sale between 1.20800 and 1.21000 has to be staggering, and given the ADP numbers [blowout] & tomorrow’s NFP, I’d be shocked to see any kind of move through 1.21 today … tomorrow, of course, is a different story.

I made one trade today for about a 4 PIP profit … caught one of the moves up before it retraced … I would have liked to see today’s action try and go lower first out of Europe … make a new marginal low below 1.20 or fail … then start the climb … small reversals off the European open have the largest market power in terms of scope; these one-way shots are very hard to capture. In any event, tomorrow sees NFP [oh joy] … should be good for some kind of move we can capture … we’ll see.

I’m posting early & calling it a day, cuz this afternoon sees me at the doctor’s office for a post flu checkup … the Mrs. insists, and that means I go whether I like it or not … New York action into this afternoon should quiet down, and that’s why I agreed to the checkup … should be simply a “chopfest” not worth anybody’s time or effort, and besides, there isn’t anything I want to be in today up here at these levels anyway.  If it goes through 1.21, then it does, and quite frankly I don’t care … tomorrow’s another day, and I’m not getting caught in some pre NFP bullshit in Thursday New York trading.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below, as the “bugs” are worked out … I’m taking the spreadsheet from the start of the 2018 year, since December didn’t add/subtract much anyway, and also because we finally have a market to trade going forward … it makes things simpler going forward. Onward & Upward!! I’m outta here ‘till tomorrow.

   

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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