MAN FLU, DAY 6

 

“Time to get better or die … at this point I don’t care!”

Almost there … almost … not 100% today, but better than yesterday. It’s taking its sweet donkey time in leaving.

This is one of the strangest trading days I think I’ve ever seen … the trading action in EURUSD is downright bizarre, not the least of which is we spend almost an hour hugging the low of the day [so far], bouncing up and down a couple of PIPS, before staging a crawl … literally a crawl, like a snail along the floor, up to the 1.2020 - 30 area. Granted, we got ISM & FED minutes later, but the lack of any kind of coherent trading market is disturbing. They call them “tops & bottoms” for a reason … and that reason is, you don’t get but a second at either before it moves away, usually very quickly … and now you’re tellin’ me, “sure, take a nap or go eat breakfast and come back … we’ll wait for you so you to can be a buyer at or near the bottom of the day … how’s that sound”? Right, and one George Costanza has a “hot” date tonight. Or, and this is important, we haven’t seen the low yet, in which case my guess is the ISM @10 A.M. EST or the FED minutes @2 P.M. got something to do with it … we’ll see, but for right now after about 6 hours, it’s “deadsville”.

Then there’s the first 2 hours of trading, where Asia did nothing, somebody flips a “switch”, and EURUSD goes literally comatose, until hours later somebody can’t take it anymore and sets off some stops that take us down to where we are now … where we can’t break or rally of any significance … you literally can’t be short or long, as the market bobs up & down a PIP or two endlessly. “Good grief, I’m not the only thing that’s sick”.

ISM out, and a little stronger than forecast … EURUSD makes fractional new low, and then what? … well, Nada that’s what … beware being short when 1) it stops going down, and 2) news that should send it lower doesn’t. After the runup for 4 straight days, selling EURUSD today “in the hole” doesn’t make sense; that doesn’t mean it has to go up, cuz it doesn’t … how does sideways sound to frustrate the “bat guano” out of you?

It’s a little before Noon in NY, and so far in this lackluster approximate 36 – 38 PIP range [low 40’s down to 04], we started the day out around 1.20400 … down to the 10 area in fits & starts … rally up to low 30’s in an excruciating crawl … break to new low by fractions … and now rally to the 20’s … and what do we call this? … that’s right, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] that kills so many traders, week in week out ad infinitum nauseum. Quite frankly, I don’t know if the FED minutes will have any impact … personally, I seriously doubt it … but again today, we see a low volume trade with tiny ranges that go nowhere … “Oh, and if it stands, the lows of the day everybody and their brother had a chance to buy if they wanted to … and truthfully, I can’t ever remember seeing that kind of scenario … maybe it’s the remnants of the fever I had, but seeing that simply freaks me out, cuz in this universe that doesn’t happen [yet it did o far]”.

I came into the day, after surveying the action in the Asian session, looking for long positions on sell stops below the market … nothing major, but the interim low from the other day at 1.20270 looked vulnerable … I’m thinking teens would be a good low area from which the market should bounce. This led to my first long trade, where after I got long it just “sat” … minute after minute trading between 16 – 19, and the longer it goes NOT rallying, the more worried I get, cuz I know there should be a bounce, yet there isn’t one … finally we get a very weak rally attempt, but it fades quickly and I liquidate … small profit again, but if it doesn’t want to go, I’m not hanging around to take a loss. And so far, that’s been the day … start at high, go to low, sit for an hour, rally back almost to high, go to new low, rally back to middle … all inside the FWD of about 35 PIPS. Yuck … meanwhile, we’ve spent the entire day below the 50% retracement line … not exactly an algorithm recipe for long positions that aren’t “special situations” off the low.

After 4 straight days of strong upward price gains, getting short on a lower opening isn’t something that I think has a very high reward to it … it isn’t that the market can’t go down, it’s the fact that there will be quick spikes up that shake you out and force you to liquidate … ultimately, it simply leads to bad trades.

So now, it’s time to waste another couple of hours “hurrying up & waiting” for the clueless FED minutes … Grandma Yellen’s last meeting, and I would be shocked if there’s anything in it that moves EURUSD for more than 2 or 3 M1’s, if that much … if there ever was a “non-starter” minutes, this one is it. Twenty minutes after it’s released, I’d be surprised if the market even has a pulse.

Nothing good at all about today as a trading day; very small range from the European open, with moves back & forth inside the FWD … and as we all know, the only thing you can really do with the FWD is survive it and move on to the next day. I got exactly what I wanted out of the early action lower … thought my buy was excellent … didn’t count on the market spending hours hovering above the low before moving up some … well, it is what it is … hang around long enough and you see everything; been here a very long time and never seen this crap before. “Anybody seen Costanza’s “Jon Voight” car around the parking lot”? Onward & Upward!!

Fed minutes = yawn … day is over. PAMM spreadsheet most likely tomorrow, as I get better and am up to editing it. I’m outta here … again, a very light dinner and it’s off to bed, and hopefully 12 -13 hours from now I’m at or very near 100% … until then, “I think I’m gonna die honey”!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

UPDATE: And right after I post, here comes the selling down to a new low … on a spike … in a somewhat delayed EURUSD reaction to the FED minutes. The low put in at 1.20012, and then it’s immediately above 6 … now that’s a low, and what we should have seen earlier in the day but didn’t. Good news is I’m not crazy [the dog gets no vote here], but it would have been nice to see this type of action before the clock runs out … typical FED BS, and why they can’t release this stuff before the open is beyond me … all they do is ruin a trading day. We’ll see if this carries over into the Asian session and into Europe … until tomorrow mi amigos.

 

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