FOMO in the 2 big crypto pairs in full swing, as both the m1 and m15 go into
orbit … what’s surprised me is not the extent of the rise or how quick it’s
happening, but rather the consistency of the bid/offer spread in both has
remained somewhat stable at low levels compared to the past … during the first
few seconds of an explosion upwards, the spread in both expanded a tiny bit,
but not much before going back to normal … this is a welcome development at
Coinexx, where ETH continues to offer better trade logistics and trading action
than BTC, IMHO. … we’re getting the usual “blah blah, yada yada” from analysts
& gurus talking about the BTC ETFs and their “tail wags dog” effect and the
upcoming BTC “halving” coming April 14 and how in the past a halving always
has produced “bigly & yuge” upward pressure on price up to 3 - 6 months later,
and so the FOMO crowd is piling in early this time before the move … “welcome
to the party pal, YOU are the move!”
One of the algorithm’s areas I’m highlighting today is the m15, with the “vegas
mq4 code” for support [buy] & resistance [sell] for use in conjunction with the
m1 for scalping, or standalone for day trading … for ETH, I use RM=3 & RM=4
… use these “zones” for day trading, but unless the market is volatile enough,
you might have some wait … in that case if there’s a shift lower in session VIX,
shift down to RM=2 & RM=3. Directly below, today’s look at the m15 in ETHUSD
at Coinexx with algorithm overlay … The other algorithm component is the m1,
which I will cover in tomorrow’s blog.
Sixteen [16] trading days ago, ancient history to today’s crypto crowd, ETHUSD
was approximately $1000 lower in price … for you Biden voters, that’s about a
30%+ increase in such a short time … FOMO is nice, but trees don’t grow to the
sky, and when they do what comes next is usually butt ugly in the extreme going
“Thelma & Louise” … it only hurts when you hit the quarry bottom! … in other
words, caution up here in the ETH stratosphere is warranted … at present, given
the rapid rise in price, I’m looking for m15 values hitting RM=4 on the downside,
AND/OR EARLY [BEFORE 1 PM EST.] m1 values hitting RM=2 … these will offer
the best scalps when very short term sentiment is negative … later than 1 PM
EST drops have the potential to be bigger problems, simply cuz time is running
out in the day and scalpers / day traders have a tendency to not want to take
positions cuz of time constraints … and when SHTF, which it will in the days
ahead at some point in BTC & ETH, more than likely the steepest drops will come
in the EST afternoon. [As for the “Spoos”, I’ve seen bigger ranges and better
trading action in oat spreads … right now, they are far away in third place
getting lapped by crypto.]
As with any volatile market, just cuz price hits a line in the sand doesn’t mean
“Mr. Market” pays any attention to it … panic selling always burns itself out,
but that isn’t the problem … the problem is it can be greater than any human
thought, and if it continues will destroy an account quicker than burning $100
bills … and in crypto, especially BTC slightly more than ETH, it can spell
disaster … so, what needs to happen in order to initiate a long trade off
appropriate bottom RM levels is for price to stop going down and stage some
kind of initial rally … then and only then do you have something to “hang your
hat on” [with a mental stop underneath] … depending on the particular
environment of the trade, though, fills can be a problem on entry, but it is
what it is.
This is like the umpteenth day in a row, where trading action in NYSE hours lags,
and lags badly, action in Asia and early Europe sessions … it’s not the ranges,
it’s the trading action up/down … this is born out by the stats I keep and release
on Sunday’s blog update … on 2/2/2024, the ratio of NYSE daily range divided
into the NYSE MEDIAN RANGE was a hair over 81% for ETH … this week, it’s a
hair under 63% … almost a 20% drop!, in a frickin’ month!, and about the same
for BTC which is slightly better but not by much … NYSE cash hours still offer
the best session VIX, but I’m not likin’ the latest trend … doesn’t matter if you
consider yourself a scalper or day trader, or anywhere in between, if you don’t
learn the proper behavior of how to buy corrective activity “CORRECTLY”, the
volatility of these markets will eventually come for you like the Reaper!
Although the m15 didn’t hit RM=3, we did have an m1 move to the red line of the
RM=2 line, and when it stopped and started to rally, I hit the buy button
… another great fill from the Coinexx LP HFT whores, who filled us
approximately $6 higher … thanks fellas … PAMM UP FRACTIONALLY after this
clusterfark, and since then the day slowed significantly … onto tomorrow.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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