Not much to report from overnight, although GBPAUD had some good algo
signals in the Asian session into the European session … since then it’s been
dead as traders await data today and tomorrow’s NFP Idiocy report from the U.S.
… many traders heading to the exit gates as the world gets its only official 4 day
Holiday which is the Easter weekend, starting on Good Friday and going through
Easter Monday … typically this is the worst stretch of low volatility you’re ever
gonna see, but this year Good Friday falls on an NFP report … as always lately,
we’re all bond traders now, and the only thing people are looking at is the yield
on 2 Yr. or 10 Yr. Treasuries … especially in FX, as the flows are all a one-way
street with each tick of bond yields … Bitcoin not so much.
One thing I am going to do, both with the PAMM for FX & gold, and for
“The Syndicate” in BTCUSDT starting next week is trade the Asian session to
late in the night, get some sleep, and then awake for the U.S. session … I don’t
need or wanna move to frickin’ Thailand in order to trade, just rearrange my sleep
schedule to accommodate the most active times of the day in this new world
order run by the ChiComs, Indians, & Ruskies … all the U.S. is good for is money
laundering gains seen in other parts of the world, and instead of being the most
active session of the world’s 3 sessions, it’s becoming the supreme laggard filled
with nothing but bullshit moves where markets are either completely dead or
move in one direction for hours on end, then magically switch and go the other
direction in some kind of “V” shaped horseshit that only traps traders.
The focus today is on Bitcoin [BTCUSDT], where we’re not using the BTC coin as
collateral for trading and margin, but rather Tether [USDT] stablecoin … the
advantages of this should be rather obvious … I want to trade BTC, not
collateralize my account that has to be tied to BTC … it’s all roses if BTC does
nothing but go up, but as 2022 showed the trading community, BTC goes down as
well … $66K down to about $17K is quite the “haircut”, and if your account was
held in BTC, I’m thinkin’ you may have been slightly suicidal watching your
account go south even on days when you made money … I think it makes the
most sense to trade BTC, and then if you want to take some profits and actually
hold the coin, then put some in your cold wallet for a rainy day, and HODL the
shit out of it … at IQCENT, you can hold your account balance in either dollars or
Euros, you pick at account setup.
Generally speaking, the USDT BTC trading is a couple of dollars lower in price
than BTC price where the coin is the collateral for margin purposes … and unlike
FX or other exchange traded markets, there are plenty more market platforms for
BTC trading than the couple of scumbag banks that dominate and control FX
… and that means a wide berth of prices as each platform has its own dynamics
in a free flowing marketplace of bids / offers where everybody is equal … I said
before and let me repeat, just cuz the spread at IQCENT is usually 1 penny, this
market moves … and if you buy the spike up, you can expect a fill higher than you
expected cuz the offers are being bought and then they change higher … and
likewise on the sell side only reversed … but, even if your fill is slightly off from
where you wanted it, it’s still light years better than shitholes like Coinexx [and
their thieving LP’s] where you’ll get the slippage as well as a $35+ spread to have
to beat … imagine a person trades a 1 lot volume 5 times a day for the month,
which is 100 trades for the month [M-F, no weekends] … you wanna give $3500+
to the frickin’ brokerage house and scumbag LP? … why? … you don’t get shit in
return for that money you shoved out the window, versus the $1 you paid at
IQCENT … I used to get the very best trading deals in the world when I was on
the floor trading from a pit, but this makes that look like garbage! … take any
metric you want to throw up, and given these conditions, it’s impossible to beat
BTC given its 20 Day Range MA, as well as 24/7/365 [never closes] trading hours
and activity … nothing comes close! … you can sign up at IQCENT via the link
in the right hand column … easy & fast!
I didn’t really have any expectations for today for Cable/Aud, except to note it’s
been flying higher on a tear for these last weeks … since I got to my screens this
morning it hasn’t done Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat, being in about a 45 PIP yo-yo
from Hell inside a “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] … “Trading Ratio” [TR] barely
acceptable, it looks and feels like the world is out ‘til next Tuesday after the Easter
Holiday and all that entails [Good Friday, Easter Sunday, & Easter Monday]
… quite frankly, there isn’t anything here but mindless chop.
Bitcoin looks to be coiling for a fat move on the daily chart … although ranges
over the last few weeks or so have been steady around $1,000 [excluding
weekends], it’s been a choppy last 3 weeks of trading action with neither highs or
lows giving way … it looks like a classic flag formation on the daily, which
traditionally indicates the move up is half over … so, another leg up? … we’ll see,
but I will remind folks of one important thing about Bitcoin … before it goes higher,
it goes lower, and before it goes lower it goes higher first … short squeezes and
long liquidation traps are a favorite trick of the “whales” for getting their price on
volume at the retail spec’s behalf.
When things slow down, generally speaking option payout ratios will drop
… today, BTC binary options are at 40% as I write, which is ridiculously low … but
it ain’t moving and is stuck in a tiny range … when it starts moving the payout ratio
usually rises to about 75% … and in FX, USDJPY binary options usually run at 75%
payout ratio cuz it’s the most volatile FX major pair right now … in the updated
binary trading manual coming this Easter Monday, both BTC and USDJPY
are covered.
Tomorrow sees NFP, oh fun oh joy, and I’d expect if it’s not a sigma miss and
pretty much in line with expectations, traders will hit the exits “el quicko mucho”
… I think most of FX is open, but gold, crude oil, and “Stock Bellies” are closed
… the bond market I’m not sure of, but we’ll see … in any event, whatever happens
price action will be over within an hour … again, we’ll see … I don’t expect much
overnight … BTC as always, doesn’t give a shit cuz it trades 24/7/365, rain / shine /
Holiday /whatever, so anything can happen in BTC … no trades today in GBPAUD
for the PAMM, simply cuz it was stuck in a crappy 40-ish PIP range the entire 8+
hours I’m watching it, and while there are always algo signals, when it gets this
shitty “false positives” creep in and it can get messy … and I don’t like “messy”!
… cue my personal broken record Pluuuuuueeeze! … “WTF!, I got to move to
Thailand to get decent trading action?” … well no, just stay up for most of the
Asian session, sleep during Europe ‘till the U.S. gets going around 7 - 8 AM EST,
and take it from there … and that’s what I’ll be doing come next week for the
PAMM as well as “The Syndicate” in BTC … onto tomorrow!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment