Quite frankly, I’m a little disappointed that crude oil closed yesterday almost
exactly where it opened Sunday night … given the OPEC+ news of a surprise
1.77 mpd barrel production cut, I thought it should have been higher than it was
… one thing it will do is undercut HODL short positions if price starts to move
higher from here and definitively break $82+ to the upside … hello “stagflation”,
and super hello to a falling dollar … next domino to drop sometime in the near
future is OPEC’s willingness to accept and deal oil in Yuan, and when that
happens look the Hell out, cuz markets will go full retard basket of kittens
on meth!
Along with oil going north, the question in FX will be which currencies go north
faster or slower than USDJPY … a new bull / bear market every other day in the
YEN crosses seems logical … and while ALL MARKETS have warts, pimples,
blemishes, and scars, it’s hard to see how FX crosses in YEN can be any worse
than the shit going on in gold … gold in its present form, an absolute nightmare
to trade due to 1) relatively high variable bid/offer spread that can and does go
wild too often, and 2) severe, heavily FUBAR slippage on fills that make anything
in oil or FX crosses look extremely tame by comparison … quite frankly, you’re
risking far more than you think on a gold trade if it goes sour … and if your stop
is where other specs got theirs, it could easily get much worse.
The straight up / down bullshit continues unabated … traditional markets don’t
trade any longer, it’s either panic [up/down what’s the difference?] or it’s dead
… today it’s FX’s turn, as the YEN crosses go bat shit crazy [BSC] higher … by
the time I hit my screens, Cable/Yen already has a 200+ PIP range on its way to a
range of 221 PIPS [so far] and the 20 Day Range MA for this week runs about 187
PIPS … now into the New York afternoon, and sure enough, buying panic has
turned into selling panic in Cable/Yen, gold goes orbital in classic FOMO panic,
“Stock Bellies” crater, and bond yields are going tapioca lower as the econ stats
from this morning go “soft” … more to the point, nobody at the FED has a F-ing
clue what they’re doing, and at the White House Biden is doing a jigsaw puzzle
in the basement in his pajamas … in other words, situation normal.
Very close to a double reversal day in Cable/Yen on gigantic range, with every
classic panic move known to man … as is almost always lately, it’s USDJPY that
turns around while Cable doesn’t do shit … what a shitshow circus across the
board … from an algorithm perspective, the day is over before it began in both
Cable/Yen and/or EUR/JPY, take your pick … ranges blown to shit through 20
Day Range MA’s … a different story in crude oil, where after Sunday’s big open
to start the week, crude hasn’t done Mr. Jack Squat either … given the news flow,
I certainly expected more from oil than sub par daily ranges well below its 20 Day
Range MA … that leads me to be very cautious about oil right here … is it just a
new level to die at, or is oil “coiling” for a big move higher?
Gold going FOMO BSC on weaker econ stats and yields moving lower
… somebody got skewered trying to defend the 2000 level and puked … puked
hard! … since that panic, gold has gone sideways natch … my first priority today
was GBPJPY, and while it traded OK from the time I came in, once again the big
movement action came in the Asian session towards the European session open
… cue my broken record … “WTF?, I got to move to frickin’ Thailand to see
decent trading action?” … well, probably yes but that ain’t gonna happen, so
about the only thing I can do is get up a little earlier to be ready to go around the
European open at 3 - 4 AM EST … although today was somewhat of an aberration
cuz of the size of the range before I even got up, the Cable Yen cross does do
better in the New York session than one might think … that’s cuz of the role of
the YEN in “risk on / risk off” [RORO] bullshit that permeates the mantra of
financial trading when nobody has a clue why something moved … “Oh, it
moved cuz of RORO! … right, sure it did [as my eyes role back in my head]”.
It’s important to realize that in trading crosses, you can’t think about them as
you would the dollar pairs … they’re their own deal with their own dynamics,
and picking a point on a chart and saying, “OH, it’s got to stop here!, is “stupid
shit” … fact is, the trading algorithm nails the cross pretty “Hoover Dam” well
… quite frankly, I didn’t see the big double reversal [almost] coming, and once
we topped out, I was ready / willing / and able to get long on a buy signal … and
those signals never came cuz of the big move down starting around 7:30 AM EST
… before that we had a little time of mostly chop, but once the down move
started, it was like an avalanche lower … I don’t usually like to switch sides intra
day cuz you stand a greater probability of getting chopped up … As it was, I only
had one trade in GBPJPY today … PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … I’ll be somewhat more
aggressive starting tomorrow, as this cross looks to remain volatile for the
foreseeable future … YEN is what it is and has been BSC for a while on the
denominator side, and now Cable looks to be awakening in the numerator
… so, VIX looking promising … onto tomorrow.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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