THE BEST OF TIMES … THE WORST OF TIMES

“Look Ma, I’ve discovered trading!!”

Looking at the daily charts and pre-judging daily range volatility [VIX], one could

think that there’s plenty of “oomph” in price action … after all, VIX is much higher

than 6 - 12 months ago, and in some spaces it has really exploded [e.g., in

USDJPY and FX in general, not to mention “Stock Bellies”] … making money

must be a “slam dunk” given these higher VIX readings, right? … ahh, the best of

times! … the devil is always in the details, and a closer look sees 1) most of the

day’s range far too often occurs in the Asian session, and 2) explosions in price

come on spikes from Hell, both up and down, and far too often after that it’s the

“Loser Formation” afterwards of sideways trading action … WTF is this?!

… ahh, the worst of times!

And what we’re left with is bullshit markets across the spectrum that seemingly

won’t behave, giving something one day, and then back tracking back to bullshit

for too many other days … energy seemingly being the only place where there’s a

modicum of decent VIX, but that lately is starting to weaken week after week

… today for example, WTI crude oil with an approximate 4+ hour session range

[New York 7 AM EST to just after 11 AM EST] of an approximate, whopping range

of 85 cents … to be sure, there’s still half a day left so anything can happen

[please?], but so far it’s chop horseshit … and when chop shows up things can

turn ugly quickly, as traders abandon discipline and patience and go with the

“ever profitable” gut feeling syndrome, and get their ass handed to them … if I

had a nickel for every time I’ve seen it, i wouldn’t need to trade, simply stack the

nickels to the Moon. 

And what’s an easy way to tell if chop is present? … the “Trading Ratio” [TR],

where TR = (60 period range of M1’s / total cost to trade the pair), which as I write

is barely above 3 [11 / 3] and from crude or Natty Gas, what we want to see is a TR

consistently above 4.5 to maybe 5 … get that and trading is good … don’t get it,

leave it the Hell alone … “but hey, since when do people listen and follow

directions?”

With today’s lackluster price movement [so far at least], spreads in crude oil have

been OK, but Natty Gas is having heartburn, with a spread that fluctuates

between $0.004 - $0.015, which is bullshit … however, considering we’re at

“SLIPPAGE FX” [a/k/a Coinexx / Turnkey], that $100 value per 1 lot leaves a lot

of room for “scumbaggery & fuckery” … and until I see a more reasonable AND

CONSISTENT spread, I’m not giving money away to these LP assholes … a great

market, but thieving market makers ruin it.

I got no problem trading oil over Natty Gas … and with “SLIPPAGE FX” giving me

a non answer answer, and trying to resolve us getting screwed on 2 oil fills last

week, I have to be really careful when I hit the trading buttons … if the VIX is there

we’re OK, but if conditions are anywhere near what we see today, you just have to

sit and wait it out … we’ve gone from $3.50 - $4.00 ranges in the New York session,

as measured by the 20 Day Range MA, to the pitiful bullshit we see today where

it’s 80 some cents … one set of oil inventories [API] at 4:30 PM EST, but by then

who cares? … tomorrow sees oil inventories [EIA] at Cushing, OK., which is

what WTI oil cares about the most … of course, today is hopefully Biden’s

comeuppance with midterm elections … anybody that votes for a “D” is an idiot

beyond hope of intelligence … “Libtards ONLY win if they cheat” … Libtards are

a disaster for everyone, and lower your standard of living at every opportunity,

while promoting anything & everything morally deviant & abhorrent … hopefully,

San Fran Nan & crew get sent packing and the Senate as well goes “R” … Hell,

even the RINO’s are better than any Libtard DEM … what effect this has on

crude oil remains to be seen, so we’ll see how this shakes out.

About 90 minutes into NYSE “Stonks” trading, and by the reaction of “Stock

Bellies” to the upside, it looks like we could be seeing on the ground a

“red tsunami” … that would, should be good for equities, although who knows

how the Lounge Lizards at the FED feel about it … they keep trotting out PIE

HOLES to discredit rallies via talk of higher rates for longer, but again we’ll see

… for now, though, the DOW30 is in rally mode.

Then comes the afternoon, and everything shits the bed as crypto collapses via

the FTF / Binance clusterfark … dunno if that’s the catalyst, but DOW30 goes

“Thelma & Louise” down almost 300 index points [so far] in 16 minutes, and oil

goes south as well, about $1 per bbl. … don’t see anything else on the wires that

could account for this, as news is most likely the culprit cuz it’s multiple markets

being affected at once and in the same direction … and if you got stubborn &

stupid you got whacked … like I said before, markets have no rules anymore

… NONE … panic & FOMO are all that’s left thanks to central bankers and the QE

bullshit of the last decade … even gas and oil get whacked, as traders push

buttons first and ask questions later if even the slightest bit of price erosion starts

too take place … they FOMO panic on the way in, and panic fear on the way out

… how many traders got sucked into the “cold blast will be here in 6 days” bullshit

and bought willy nilly? … is it any wonder price collapsed today in Natty Gas as

we headed lower? … ain’t nobody hanging around to see if the temps go lower

when they are losing their ass … same type of argument in oil … tightest supplies

EVER, but the ChiComs manipulate demand via their COVID lockdown bullshit

… again, oil traders aren’t gonna sit around and watch account destruction take

place … hit the “Hoover Dam” buttons and GTFO! … and when it happens in

straight lines, it makes trading almost impossible cuz it won’t correct, and when

it does it goes the other way faster than Biden’s brain going soft … now you got

the problem in the other direction …. Rinse, repeat, and WTF is this?

Oil today in one of the tightest ranges I’ve seen in a while, until all Hell broke

loose early this afternoon to the downside … and afterwards? … straight sideways

into the “Loser Formation” … corrective activity, what corrective activity? … of

which market do you speak of? … if this ain’t “The Twilight Zone” then we’re all in

big trouble if this is the new “normal” … no trades today for the PAMM, as

conditions were so bad up into the break, it was simply chop city with no

movement anywhere … I looked at the DOW30, but as so often happens after a

nice rally with no discernible breaks, when it does break you don’t want it … and

today, you certainly didn’t want it! … no worries, crude oil can’t be kept down

for long, and Natty Gas pricing will hopefully resolve itself … onto tomorrow.   

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas