How many times have we seen this? … “speed of light … crickets!” … as the
world discovers slightly higher nominal interest rates and freaks out … an
entire generation of traders that don’t even know what a “tightening cycle” looks
or trades like … and quite frankly, it’s not even really a tightening yet cuz with
inflation easily running over 10%+, somebody tell me how the 10 YR. Treasury
at 1.82% “throttles” inflation? … crypto for its part, up ‘till now hasn’t ever seen a
tightening cycle, having been born in 2009 … so how does it react? … nobody
knows! … other more traditional markets, though, aren’t trading like they did
back in the day before the ‘08 crash, and the reason is government manipulation
of VIX we see today that didn’t exist back then … shit actually “traded”, it didn’t
go straight down / up and then sit … in fact, what has always been the case is that
the biggest rallies in history happen in bear markets, not bull markets … and so
here we are this morning with oil up, rates going up, and everything gets monkey
hammered the second Europe opens, and now it sits … the Asian session as I’ve
said before taking the month of January off like they almost always do to
celebrate the new year.
So how do you capture “alpha” [yield] in an environment like this? … good
question, when there’s literally nothing but lightning strikes and then sitting
and waiting for something to move again … except for some specific alt-coins
[e.g., ADA], everything on the board is seeing 20 Day Ranges trending LOWER,
with an occasional outlier, but for the most part they are losing VIX, not gaining
VIX … think that’s a coincidence?
And then I get up and hit my screen a little after the European open, and
everything is blown to shit cuz the 10 YR. Treasury yield is higher and oil is the
highest price since 2014 … the DAX40, right along with the other “Stock Bellies”
get mauled and now have higher ranges than their respective 20 Day Range MA’s,
and Europe is barely open … oh wonderful, will the “Plunge Protection Team”
[PPT] stick save everything once the criminal, money laundering NYSE opens?
… meanwhile the 2 “big dogs” of crypto acting like 2 major FX pairs getting
manipulated heavily … and they are, but for different reasons, cuz now the “open
order book” [OOB] platforms have tight “forced liquidations” on your BTC & ETH
trades, NO MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY YOU HAVE IN YOUR ACCOUNT … you
could buy $100 worth of Bitcoin, and if it went to frickin’ ZERO, you’d lose $100,
but you have $5,000 in your account … too bad, it doesn’t matter! … BTC goes
$210 against you, and they automatically liquidate your long position … ditto in
ETH as well, and you’re seeing a substantial loss of volume in these 2 as traders
move to other alt-coins … the “whales”, just like the central banks in FX, don’t
like it when you make money trading … that’s their money don’tchaknow!
… wanna play now, they’ll run your “forced liquidation” stop and there ain’t a
“Hoover Dam” thing you can do about it … well wait, yes there is a “thing” I can
do about it … it’s called STOP TRADING IT AND FUCK OFF! … there traders at
ALL crypto houses, I solved it for you.
Meanwhile back in crude oil, I think we’re getting really close to the current end to
the rally that’s seen oil go UP about $18 per barrel in 20 trading days … this $85
level should provide some near term stiff resistance, and we’re probably days
away from some nice corrections and buying opportunities, and a generally more
conducive trading atmosphere than we’ve seen lately, with a strong bias to the
upside … this type of parabolic price rise cannot be sustained this fast … think
there’s any sell stops below this market? … and as soon as we get out of January,
we’ll see much better trading conditions for oil … as long as the idiots at the HFT
LP at Turnkey don’t get greedy and blow the spread out, this will be a very good
market for us going forward … meanwhile, everything else from crypto [ETH] to
the DAX40 simply an embarrassment to trading … what a pile of shit, where you
to can risk dollars to make pennies, and outside of a very small time window
today, not a “Hoover Dam” thing is happening … quite frankly, the manipulators
manipulating VIX is all ya need to know.
Into the New York afternoon, and ever since the “Thelma & Louise” bloodbath on
the European open, 20 minutes after that and for the next 9+ hours, nothing has
done Mr. Jack Squat … can’t rally, can’t break, can’t do shit as VIX leaves the
building and traders face severe chop … Monday’s in New York these last months
being simply terrible for any kind of trading action … oh sure, you can get some
one-way moves, but they aren’t any help to a trader, unless you wanna buy rallies
and sell breaks, which is something I don’t do and never have … ranges over the
last 9+ hours simply pathetic, most notably coming up short in “Stock Bellies”
and the “big two” of crypto BTC & ETH, where you’d be hard pressed to see
weaker action in the July / Dec corn spread.
Meanwhile over in alt-coin crypto land, ADA shining like a bright star in the night
sky, where so far today, a 2,103 TICK RANGE … and in this roller coaster ride of
UP / DOWN, plenty of 100 - 300 tick rallies “el quicko” off bottoms that scream
higher, on a day that sees ADA open near its high of the day and start to move
lower throughout the Asian session, and then pick up plenty of downside
“monkey hammering” as the U.S. session sun came up … so why here and
what the hell is wrong with ETH? … well, it’s easy IMHO … it’s harder to hit the
“forced liquidations” in ADA, than it is in BTC & ETH, and traders have simply
migrated … looking at the “stats” from several different perpetual futures
exchanges, and volume for the day is 100+ TIMES LARGER THAN OPEN
INTEREST … and that clearly shows scalping / day trading the swings … with a
2000+ TICK RANGE, and a very active market, getting the moves ain’t the
problem … keeping yourself disciplined and taking what the market easily gives
you, and not acting or trading like “Porky Pig”, is the problem … more than
traditional traders, crypto traders are cut from a different cloth … if the moves
ain’t there, or if there’s the perception they are being screwed, they walk and
take their money and go into another coin that’s friendly … quite frankly, that’s
what we’re seeing in many of these alt-coins … hell, I don’t even recognize
BTC & ETH with their respective paltry ranges.
Oil today very frustrating … there are plenty of reasons to be bullish oil, and
practically no reasons not to … trees don’t grow to the sky, and oil won’t either
… yes, it’s frustrating waiting for a good enough break to buy that’s tied to sell
stop liquidations, and we haven’t seen ANY since the “Omicron” scare sent oil
from the low 80’s down to mid 60’s “el mucho quicko” back at the end of
November 2021 … I’m not looking for that kind of break, simply cuz it’s got a
very low probability of happening bordering on JUST ABOVE ZERO! … however,
the trade knows when specs are too long, and the big oil traders know when to
run stops … we haven’t seen any of that … trust me, we will see it coming up
… and I can almost guarantee it comes out of nowhere when people least expect
it, and it sets off an avalanche lower … I doubt seriously that happens in the
Asian session, more likely in Europe and highly likely in New York trading
… from where the market is positioned right now, there are simply too many
longs along for the ride … “not every dog gets to ride on the firetruck!”
And they won’t ring a bell or send out emails first either, it’ll just be a good old
fashioned sell stop hunt where longs get buried and your fill is near the bottom
… just think of gold when everybody is long and you get the idea … and that’s
what we need to see … these teeny weeny breaks tell the story of nervous longs,
so we’ll see what happens next.
No trades today in the Turnkey PAMM, simply cuz after the European open
there’s nothing to do! … no ranges, no moves except the tiniest bullshit chop
… and oil stuck in about a 70 cent range for over 11+ hours, chopping around
with ZERO direction with an occasional “fakeout” move to the upside that gets
beat down quickly … algo parameters & metrics sitting on top of each other and
simply giving us no clues for buying … nothing we can do about it, it’s onto
tomorrow … over in ADA for “The Syndicate”, we’re up APPROXIMATELY 0.6%
on a very big range day with plenty of movement … back to the grind.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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