When anybody says “trading”, you have to define WTH you’re talkin’ about cuz
an awful lot of scenarios can unfold depending on how you define it … I’ve
NEVER been one for longer time period positions … too many bad things can
happen, and in order to be successful you have to be able to bypass tremendous
error rates from your model or algorithm, which I have always found
unacceptable … when I say “trading”, I mean short term trading, and again you
need to take the scalpel and separate “scalping” from “day trading” … scalping
can incorporate day trading under certain conditions, but if you’re a day trader,
you can’t really effectively scalp markets.
So, under my definition of “trading” [salping … 0 - 4+ minutes], there are only 3
criteria that matter for success … 1) an acceptable level of VOLATILITY of the
market you’re trading, , WHEN YOU’RE AT YOUR SCREEN TRADING IT, cuz
without it you can’t get the proper movement over short time periods, and thus
are left “stuck” holding positions for far longer than you want without acceptable
profit levels, and an overabundance of losing trades … 2) the absolute
LOWEST COST OF TRADING [LOW bid/offer + RT commish] OUT THERE, relative
to what market you’re trading and its VOLATILITY … and 3) VERY HIGH SPEC
PARTICIPATION RATE, cuz it’s the specs [both retail & institutional] that FOMO
and buy rallies, and also completely PANIC SELL breaks to a short term bottom.
OK, so let’s look “under the hood” at the various market sectors available to
“trade” short term … all of FX gets a grade “F” for #1, an “A” for #2, and a “D-”
for #3 … world stock indices [a/k/a “Stock Bellies”] gets a grade “C’ for #1, a “B”
for #2, and a “B” for #3 … precious metals gets a grade “B+” for #1, a “D” for #2,
and a “D” for #3 … CRUDE OIL gets a grade “A” for #1, a “C+” for #2, and a “B+”
for #3 … CRYPTO [BTC & ETH] GETS A GRADE “A+” FOR #1, A “B+” FOR #2,
AND AN “A+” FOR #3!
And, if Turnkey had an acceptable LP for crypto, that rivaled and actually
competed with the “open order book” [OOB] platforms, the PAMM would be
trading crypto [BTC and/or ETH] … sadly, they don’t, NOT EVEN CLOSE! … too
high bid / offer spreads that fluctuate wildly, and slippage that would choke a
horse … and for precious metals, specifically gold, even with the grades above,
it still doesn’t take into consideration the massive slippage along with what I
consider an expensive bid / offer spread … that leaves the PAMM with either
“Stock Bellies” or crude oil, and the grades for crude are better overall most of
the time than anything the SP500 can offer … and there’s also the factor of
government manipulation, which doesn’t affect crude per se, but is an overriding
factor in “Spoos”, as said manipulation is used to KILL VIX … and this is the big
“bugaboo” I have with the “Spoos” as a trading vehicle, cuz you simply don’t
get the UP / DOWN price movement CONSISTENTLY ENOUGH for multiple
trades.
Make no mistake, central bank manipulators LOVE TO KILL VIX, cuz it hurts specs
and doesn’t allow them to make decent money often enough to matter … then go
look at crypto, and it should be plain as sunshine in your wide open eyes, as to
why it’s the clear winner when it comes to “trading” … and every passing
week / month sees new technologies being introduced on OOB platforms with
more competitive and cheaper “gas fees” [commissions], so that BTC specifically
is very close to having grades of “A+” on all 3 criteria … and if you’re sitting there
wondering why FX can’t move, or gold is stuck in mud or goes down when it
should be going up [hello Friday!], the facts of the matter are quite clear … both #1
& #3 are falling and can’t get up, and as time passes these markets simply keep
getting worse … and the traders that used to trade them have disappeared
completely and gone over to crypto, ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT in the Pacific
Rim, and to some extent Europe … quite frankly, nobody gives a shit about FX
rates cuz they don’t move … the reason is simple … central banks coordinate to
keep ranges tight & simple so they can EACH keep on the CNTRL-P machine and
printing money forever without consequence vis-a-vie other fiat, or so they think
… meanwhile actual commodities [like oil] and crypto not only see explosive
moves, but traders moving money to trade them.
And given the nature of the beast today, it should come as no surprise at all why
Governments the world over HATE CRYPTO … they hate it cuz they can’t control
or manipulate it for their own Elitist benefit … they can’t inflate it away, nor can
they stop people from using it … in the case of crude oil or Natty Gas, the
CNTRL-P machine can’t produce or deliver shit … all CNTRL-P can do is give
favored, scumbag government banks [JPM, Squid, & the other usual suspects]
money to control “cash settled” markets … well guess what? … that ain’t gonna
work in oil. lumber, coffee, etc., or crypto!
You can raise all of the “straw dogs” you want while hating on crypto, but they’re
all without substance … my favorite is ‘what if the internet goes down forever”?
… uh huh, and now try going down to your JPM / Chase local bank and using the
ATM or getting cash out … gonna buy a loaf of bread with that 1 OZ. gold coin?
… sure, walk into WalMart and make them an offer … bwahahahaha! … or, “the
government is gonna make crypto ILLEGAL”! … “ohh, please do! … and they’ll
find out what China, Nigeria, & India have found out, which is all it does is make it
more acceptable to normal people, cuz people figure out pretty quick government
is here to “Fuck you”, not help you”!
The next evolution of trading will come when brokerage houses start offering,
and traders start trading, BTC or ETH dominated “Stonks” and physical
commodities … already I’ve seen in the last month a “spot gold / BTC” perpetual
futures contract that’s growing in popularity … how about “crude oil / BTC” or
“crude oil / ETH”? … I got news for all of you! … it’s coming! … or how about
“AAPL / BTC” or “AAPL / ETH”, on an OOB platform with complete transparency
for order flow? … the real “killer” though comes with crude oil, cuz when that
transition is made and adopted, you can kiss the CORRUPT CME “adios” on it’s
well deserved path into bankruptcy and oblivion … quite frankly, it can’t happen
soon enough, and the U.S. Dollar simultaneously most likely losing its “reserve
currency” hegemony it’s had since the end of WWII … and it’s coming!
How many of you know that right now, there are brokerage houses that offer &
trade “BTC DOMINANCE”? … it’s an oscillator derivative that is defined as
“the total capitalization of Bitcoin / by the total capitalization OF ALL OTHER
COINS [currently about 3,000 in number]… as such, it can’t go below 0 nor
above 100, and is currently trading around 44.50 - 45.00 … in the last year, it’s
been as high as about 80.00 and the low was in the high 30’s … this started
trading in MAY 2021, and volume keeps growing with each passing week!
… by contrast, what does FX or gold offer traders?
Directly below, the 20 Day ange MA’s for selected pairs.
I’ve added Bitcoin [BTC], Ethereum [ETH], and Cardano [ADA], cuz these 3 are the
pairs most likely to be traded by me for “The Syndicate” … as you can clearly see,
the volatility of all 3 overshadow anything offered in traditional trading, except
crude oil, which trades most of the time like ETH.
Looking forward to the week at hand in crude, and of course BTC for
“The Syndicate” via algorithm trades … outta here … “the future looks so
“crudely” bright, I need sunglasses”! 😎 … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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