Time for another excursion into NFP stupidity … but before the casino opens and
all hell breaks loose, here’s a question to ponder … “In the 1960’s through to the
financial crisis of 2008, banks and brokerage houses the world over lost money
in droves that forced mergers, bankruptcies, and the loss of untold billions to
shareholders and bondholders … the amount of money floating through banks
now as market makers, as the middleman in everything traded, is 100X+ greater
than anything conceived only a few decades earlier … forget billions, it’s trillions
and QUADRILLIONS! … OK, how come NONE OF THEM EVER GET IN FINANCIAL
TROUBLE ANYMORE? … Why, cuz they’re brilliant? … no, cuz the system is
RIGGED for their benefit, and that of the POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators who
share in the “skim” off the public … just look the last month where 3 FED
governors have traded millions right before FED decisions that they are part of,
and just recently we find out that the corrupt DOJ head, one M. Garland, who is
siccing the FBI on parents as “domestic terrorists” cuz they don’t like the
bullshit of CRT being taught to their kids has a big conflict of interest … his
daughter and son-in-law own the company providing school districts with CRT
materials … see my shocked face … there’s even an app now that tracks the
Pelosi’s financial trades, since she’s such a financial genius that never loses
money … get the picture Skippy? … you ain’t part of the club!
Here pre NFP, everything very quiet, where gold is stuck in mud [nothing new
about that], and crude oil down slightly drifting around … spread in crude from
the European open has been 2 - 3 cents, so we’ll see how long this lasts once the
math whiz kids over at the Dept. of Unicorns & Fairy Tales release their fantasy
job numbers … my guess is not long, but we’ll see … pretty much everyone is
looking for a positive beat to the expected 600K job gains … whisper numbers
are all higher … a miss to the downside will cool rates on the 10 YR. Treasury
and help gold … a bigger miss to the upside will put pressure on rates to rise,
and that will hurt gold … for oil, not sure anything matters right now, except a big
“sigma” miss either way … fact is, winter is coming, supplies are extremely tight,
and suppliers are hoarding … that is not a scenario for a bearish move lower in
oil by any stretch … only when we actually get into winter and can gauge temps,
is there any chance of sustained down moves in oil & Natty Gas … and if
economies pick up from the COVID hoax subsiding, that is gonna strain
supplies even more … $100+ crude here we come by the end of the year!
Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … another “sigma miss”, this time to the
downside … and in the process, sucks in all of the gold bugs cuz this is a
“breakout” to the upside! … how do you know that? … Easy, “my moving
average crossover says so”! … and instead, it’s a “monkey hammering”,
Thelma & Louise bloodbath to the downside once the specs piled in long … so
what’s the real learning lesson of today’s excursion into trading hell for gold
longs? … again, that’s EASY PEEZEE to answer: “It’s a rigged Ponzi scheme
market! … you would get higher odds of winning sitting in front of a penny slot
machine in Las Vegas pouring in dollar bills … and with today’s NYSE open,
that saw “Stonks” rally and gold get “smoked” right in unison, it should be
obvious to anyone with one functioning brain cell, that the “Rally Protection
Team” [RPT] is in the market to “SELL, Mortimer, SELL”! … and given this sigma
miss, gold should be skyrocketing, and instead it’s getting tanked … but, but,
Basel 3! … FUCK Basel 3, it’s nothing but words from shit weasel lawyers to make
you think things have changed … they haven’t! … I wonder how many people
will now sit up and listen, and forget gold and turn to crypto or oil? … probably
not as many as should, but IMHO this is a “nail in the coffin” for gold … look for
more specs to abandon this horseshit … quite frankly, people under the age of
35 could care less about gold, especially in the U.S. … what’s it done since I’ve
been in 7th grade? … NADA … OK then, not much of an inflation hedge is it
… sorry gold bugs, they’re into crypto! … and here’s their argument: “in 2011
gold was at 1750, today 10 years later it’s at 1750 … in 2011 Bitcoin was at $1,
and today Bitcoin is at $55,000+ … tell me again about the power of yellow pet
rocks”! … and it doesn’t matter what you say, they’re right and you’re
dead wrong!
Today in spades simply proves beyond a shadow of a doubt IMHO, that gold is a
waste of time … it’s a rigged system where bullion banks ALWAYS WIN, and
specs always lose … quite frankly, I’m flushing gold down the toilet after today,
cuz it’s not simply the “bigly & yuge” reversal, it’s the blatant manipulation that
sees it tank “wicked fast” on red spikes lower, that if you’re selling you ain’t
gonna like the price you get at all … and if you’re the “deer in headlights” type,
your account gets carried to the “Trader’s Graveyard” toes up mighty fast … and
that’s the problem … high relative spread, slippage, and wicked fast down moves
when the manipulators strike … RIP gold.
Meanwhile, mid morning and crude finds itself in a relatively tiny range of less
than a $1.40 … pretty skimpy when you consider its 20 Day Range MA is
approximately $2.21 … the scumbag HFT LP at Turnkey behaving today with a
3 cent spread [it was 2 cents pre NFP], but the market isn’t choosing to move
very fast towards any destination … resistance in the upper 79’s and $80
psychological level, the market isn’t able to find the buy power to go through
… it’s early yet, so a lot can happen still, but the market feels like it’s content to
sit here in the low to mid 79’s and go into the weekend … I would be happier to
see crude back off some and take it’s time going higher, since parabolic moves
always end the same way … they blow off up, then they crash … but make no
mistake, there ain’t no CNTRL-P machine that can produce or deliver crude, so
the FED’s machinations and “scumbaggery” isn’t gonna work in this complex,
and the scumbag banks are pretty much helpless when it comes to crude oil or
Natty Gas … crude isn’t usually a supply driven market, it’s usually price driven
by demand, and coming out of the COVID hoax demand is “pent up” in many
places around the world … and while Vlad & crew talk a good game, they’re as
ruthless as anybody when it comes to sticking it to you in the pocketbook.
Crude oil is a ruthless market, filled worldwide with less than savory people
… it’s got “hitters” on both sides, along with tons of “hot money” from dubious
sources … and in relatively tight ranges, you have to be very cautious cuz the
“hitters” love to run stops and chase the “hot money” to do what they don’t want
to do, which is buy rallies if short, and/or sell breaks if long … in this respect it’s
a mirror image of crypto, especially Bitcoin [and yes, BTC is worse!, and I love it!].
The high & low of a relatively tight range, defined by being 35% - 40% or more
BELOW its 20 Day Range MA, sees those values become “magnetic attractors”,
simply cuz as the market price moves closer to one or the other people on the
wrong side of the trade get very nervous & worried their stop is gonna get run
… and in these volatile markets, that run has the potential to be a lot larger than
you think, which WILL LEAD TO CATASTROPHIC LOSSES AT SOME POINT, and
so they act, thus driving the market into a self fulfilling prophecy … and the big
dogs in the market will help make the pain as bad as they can!
And especially as you move through the day, the tension behind these low
extremes becomes enormous, cuz everybody knows somebody is gonna get
crushed and it won’t take much to deliver the blow cuz the market doesn’t have
to move very far … so, looking at crude today as we enter the New York afternoon,
with such a tiny range somebody [or even both sides on a fakeout first] is gonna
get smashed, and at this point it’s up in the air which side that will be … and it’s
why I haven’t made a trade in crude today, cuz everything else has held up nicely
from the HFT LP perspective with the spread … another factor is it’s Friday, and
that could be a big reason for lessened interest.
And Bingo!, Bango!, Boom!, my lips to the trading God’s ears, and crude goes
south to hit a new low for the day by a penny or two before a dead cat New York
afternoon bounce … somebody drove it South to hit sell stops, and once
accomplished, nothing but buying although it’s been light … I’m not interested in
the environment we find ourselves in with being short crude oil … there’s a time &
a place for being short, but this surely ain’t it … and so, not being able to rally, and
then heading South, there isn’t the chance to be long unless it turns around, and
it hasn’t done that.
The algorithm’s critical key element is always CONFIRMATION … i.e., you get a
move up, it corrects to its “fingerprint”, and now we need to see a move up … so
far today, we’ve gotten all of these but the last point, cuz there haven’t been moves
up after corrections, to the point they were either significant enough or extended
the range, and therefore there aren’t any algorithm signals to buy … and why
should there be, price either isn’t going anywhere on the upside or it’s going
down? … last time I checked, this isn’t what you want when long.
There is something seriously wrong with gold … on a day it should be UP $30+
minimum, it’s now lower than before the NFP number … it’s a FUBAR market
thanks to the RPT and FED manipulators … bang your head against the wall in
rage all you want, but the message is quite clear … gold ain’t gonna be allowed
to go UP, and in fact is nothing more than a “meat grinder” for the banks to take
all of your account … quite simply, it’s a PISS POOR MARKET!, and I’m jettisoning
it off my trading list up & until the FED stops manipulating it.
I’m somewhat surprised to see the spread in crude today holding the 3 cent level
… more surprised to see a double reversal day with a smallish range[so far], some
40% under its 20 Day Range MA … I doubt things will change much in the next 2
hours or so ‘till the close, and the weekend is upon us … I think going forward
that crude will perform well for us in the PAMM … all we need to see is the
scumbag LP not go bat shit crazy [BSC] and jack the spread … certainly gold &
FX aren’t going to perform like I want or need via the algorithm, and the “Stock
Bellies” [“Spoos”] are far too inconsistent in terms of tradeable volatility during
the day … in reality, they’re terrible … no trades today for the Turnkey PAMM, and
as we head into next week I’ll be trading WTI Crude Oil exclusively … we’ll see
plenty of trading action in this complex I’m fairly certain, and I’m looking forward
to the algorithm trades.
Meanwhile, over in crypto, another day another dollar so to speak, and
“The Syndicate” UP APPROXIMATELY 0.6% from multiple BTC trades … the
volatility the last couple of days has slowed some in BTC, for whatever reason(s),
but it still is light years better than anything on the MT4 / MT5 when it comes to
“trading” action … nothing comes close … the key to getting rich trading is
CONSISTENCY, and that’s what “The Syndicate” is achieving for participants.
I’m gonna say it again cuz it needs repeating … there is help coming for you
wannabe traders out there to make your fortunes, and it’s gonna be ‘RISK FREE”
for those who want to participate … whether you want a “career” in trading, or
you simply want to augment income on your own terms … doesn’t matter to me
… what matters is what you want! … stay tuned!
Blog update on Sunday … outta here … “the future looks so “crudely” bright, I
need sunglasses”! 😎 … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment