“You only got two hands and so many fingers!”
So I applied and got the job! … then I got fired cuz I used a steel net to catch the
knives and not my hands, so whaddaya gonna do?!
Perhaps no better metaphor exists than this one, of those who attempt to buy
“Thelma & Louise” bottoms, only to find out it wasn’t the bottom … cuz here’s
the dirty little secret … if you go for that spike low without “confirmation” of the
low, that one or two M1 slight move higher may look like money in the bank, but
when the panic isn’t over, it bloodies your account far worse than any profit, and
you need about a 90% win rate of picking bottoms just to break even from that 1
out of 10 that beats you to a comatose pulp … no better example than today’s
action in either GBPUSD AND/OR GBPJPY.
Today also sees another market phenomena … that happens when a doofus
central bank filled with worthless Twits sitting in the faculty lounge, simply go
“soggy bread crumbs” on your lunch salad and come to an interest rate meeting
and then “match” but don’t exceed market expectations … shit weasels that they
are, they don’t want to “upset the apple cart” from major bank recommendations,
and prefer to let the banks decide where the market should go … as a result,
disappoint sets in, the banks after the reports come out and they’ve screwed
accounts for a solid 12 minutes with “Vito Corleone” spreads and slippage, now
come back and lower the proverbial Bingo!, Bango!, Boom!, and it’s a long way
to the bottom for “Thelma & Louise” … MESSAGE FOR THE BOE: “go large or go
home, and ALWAYS come with surprises that get the desired result … instead, you
people are fucking idiots! … literally, a group of 3rd graders could manage the
affairs of state better than these pompous asshats”!
“You want action Skippy”? … well today you get it in spades cuz not only is
Cable moving LOWER, Yen is moving HIGHER, and that spells some wicked
action In GBPJPY … several factors in play today … 1) CHICOM WUHAN KUNG
FU FLU cases in the U.K. higher, which isn’t good, 2) “risk off” around markets,
as AUDJPY got smacked as well, although U.S. “Stock Bellies” not doing
anything, and 3) a central bank meeting that disappoints for Cable … add it all
up, and it spells trouble if you’re long GBPJPY … as well, some key technical
levels on the longer term charts taken out and shot in the head today, which
means of course the usual gaggle of retail spec sell stops, which of course the
banks run with impunity every chance they get … no different today than any
other as to running stops, so why should anybody be surprised?
I do want to mention that the “buy signals” trading algorithm I have used for the
PAMM / MAM, does utilize as well a “sell signals” trading algorithm, and starting
with tomorrow’s trading will be used when appropriate … up to now, I have been
waiting for a day like today to show its ugly face in the market I’m trading, and
today we got it in spades in GBPJPY … “it’s one thing to create & develop a “sell
signal” trading algorithm and “think” it will work, I need to evaluate it in REAL
TIME, so as not to be unduly influenced by a chart I know is going to go my way
down the road, and the only way this happens is to get a day where it’s basically
straight to the rabbit hole with only minor bounces along the way … did it operate
& function like I want it to for being “SHORT” … and today I got the answer
… YUP! … what this means quite simply is that I should catch most moves
going forward, not simply up moves.
This isn’t an issue I have ignored, it’s an issue I have been researching for quite a
while … this came into focus after the March / April debacle that saw FX go
batshit crazy on the downside, and then turn on a dime and go bat shit crazy on
the upside … and then again just recently when Cable & GBPJPY had 10 days in
a row up, and anybody simply doing sell side shorting opportunities either spent
a lot of time sitting on their hands, or getting their ass handed to them with losses
… simple enough, neither is what anybody wants to see.
I want to be clear here … “if I knew where this shit was going 100% of the time,
within 3 years I’d have all the money in the trading world sitting in my e-wallet”!
… everything is a probability wave function, and the best anybody can do, no
matter the level of money to spend or have math Ph.D.’s on your staff, is to give
yourself the highest probability of success on a trade within “reason”
… meaning, what good does it do to get a signal once every 4 years, that is
99.99% profitable? … what the “total” algorithm strives for, and achieves IMHO,
are more trading signals long & short, overall better profitability through more
signals, while keeping losses very small a very small percentage of the time.
One algorithm buy signal in GBPJPY today … TURNKEY PAMM / MAM UP
SLIGHTLY.
There for a while, it looked like there wasn’t gonna be any buy signals … even
before the 7 AM EST BOE decisions on interest rates & QE, GBPJPY was headed
lower right along with Cable … I thought it might be another one of those “the
Dukes [banks] know something”, and they’re clicking off spec sells in order to get
long … and as the decisions were announced, it looked that way for exactly 3
minutes, and then all hell broke loose to the downside … shorts got stopped out,
and longs quickly got slaughtered … it wasn’t until the final hour into the
European close that we got our first buy signal … and it was “sloppy” cuz while
Cable rallied smartly up past some previous resistance, USDJPY decided to go
hit a new low as well … so while Cable rallied 30 PIPS, Yen went up 20, and the
cross literally crawled up 10, and IMHO offered very little “buy fuel” for our long
position … at the first hint of Cable sliding back, I was gone … and while it went
up another little bit it wasn’t the kind of action you want to see if you’re long on a
day like this … still, the buy side of the algorithm did its job and pinpointed the
very tiny rally that ensued.
Onto tomorrow … outta here … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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