“The European trading session hard at work!”
Yea, I know, it’s August … but it feels like EURUSD in the first half of the
European session has been in “August” for the last 10 years … does anything
happen anymore, or is it simply Asia & the U.S.? And for like the 4 millionth
time, once the Asian session is over, the market feels like it’s “sleepwalking”
through to the point the U.S. traders start hitting their desks around 7 - 7:30
A.M. EST. … then, once the U.S. wakes up, I guess Europe can go back to
being elitist idiots giving their cultural heritage away to refugees … what else
is there?
Today sees very limited volume flows, worse liquidity, and “worse-er-er”
volatility, and pretend this is a market. What a joke … “shut the shit down and
we’ll see ya in September”!
Today sees the first trading day of the EURUSD algorithm … and one of the
important criteria I developed specifically for this algo, is the concept of a
“volatility heat map” to guide trades … without going into specifics cuz I can’t,
the point is I developed code for measuring volatility, where certain intraday
thresholds have to be met for trades to occur … if intraday volatility is too low,
then all trade signals have to be ignored, simply cuz when activity collapses,
even the tiniest moves will trigger “false positives” nobody wants to see … and
believe me, seeing 3 PIP moves over half an hour isn’t something you want to
get involved in or have a trade outstanding, wondering when the next
explosion will occur and which way … cuz if it's against you, you got no chance
getting the money back in slop like this.
Turning to today’s EURUSD market … “let’s be honest, shall we? This is a
bucket of warm bat guano” … a couple of spikes, the last one being from one of
President Trump’s tweets, and then … “crickets” … mind numbing boredom,
then TNT going off … back to mind numbing boredom until the next random
act of market violence occurs.
Only 2 trades today … PAMM up about $50, or a hair over 0.1%.
There were only two [2] short windows of opportunity where volatility had
expanded to the point of making any kind of trade worthwhile … I made both
trades, and that was it! … the rest of the day, a complete waste of time, with
ZERO going on, and price movement insulting the word “pathetic”. Sure,
there were other signals during the day, but I ignored them due to the fact the
“volatility heat map” was below my proprietary level for trading … some
worked and some didn’t, and that’s the reason they have to be ignored … too
damn many false positives that hurt profitability … the 2 signals that the
EURUSD gave when the “volatility heat map” said “OK”, were both 2 for 2 in
profitability and were immediate winners.
Today looks to be the worst day of the week for trading action … at least let’s
hope so … FED minutes Wednesday, ECB on Thursday, and the annual
Jackson Hole snob get together on Friday, should keep things better than
today. More than likely, I don’t see trading conditions getting any worse than
today, and we’ll probably have a lot more trades during the other days of the
week … only 2 trades is awfully small, but you take what the market gives you.
All told, I’m exceptionally happy with what I saw today, notwithstanding the
terrible trading conditions already mentioned, and how the EURUSD
algorithm responded to these highly challenging market conditions … yes,
we’d all like to see 100+ PIP range days, and let the good times roll … the
challenge comes with “shit days”, when volatility is severely compressed and
price appears to be drifting to nowhere in particular … what happens then?
“Today, in every instance, the algo showed the way with 1) being on the right side
of the market, meaning the easiest side to make money, 2) buying very near the
low, and 3) selling the spike up for the best fills, which were right on the market
with zero slippage … I simply can’t ask for better than that and expect to
consistently get it”!
Volumes today at the low end of our spectrum, simply cuz the market is not
conducive for higher volumes due to the lack of liquidity … so, while the
dollar amount profit today made up for Friday, considering the conditions
seen today, I’m not terribly disappointed … granted, I’d like to see better, but
remember, we’re in late August and half the world could care less, and the
other half has the beach on their mind as Summer dwindles away. Onto
tomorrow mi amigos! … Onward & Upward!! PAMM Spreadsheet will be
back soon.
Have a great day everybody!!
-vegas
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