“Misspells word … understates Indian threat … long stock indices!”
Every generation of trader and/or investor, the difference between the two, of
course, is that investors hang on to losers and traders don’t, get to relearn the
meaning of the word “risk” … as I have said before, throughout history, only
the names change. “Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it”? Checking the
scorecard and surveying the damages, we got BTC [Bitcoin], world stock
indices, and a blizzard of VIX ETF’s [Exchange Traded Funds] & ETN’s
[Exchange Traded Notes] that are either severely damaged in price, or
downright dead in the water … billions upon billions lost in less time than a
4 day weekend.
As long time readers/clients know, I’ve said since last summer that the stock
indices were a complete train wreck waiting to happen … that the complete
and utter destruction of those markets by central banks, so smug in their
hubris of being able to control volatility via manipulation, would be a
nightmare when it ended. Was there any doubt it would end? Add “crypto”
to the list, and watch in horror as your new found “tulips” wilt away to
nothing. Welcome to risk, up close and personal … where it’s a fuzzy concept
as long as the “pain tolerance” isn’t too bad … but after the “Genie” is out of
the bottle, controlling it is another story altogether, cuz you won’t be able to.
Then, once you wake up and “smell the coffee”, it’s too late … looking back,
you get to be like all the others back through the centuries and millennia, and
cry in your milk. Now maybe, you understand risk and why it’s so damn
important when you make trading a career … any Chimp can control a
“winner”; how do you control risk and navigate the terrain, so you can be here
in the future instead of back in the “Pudding Business”?
And through it all, you can count on the scumbag LP’s to 1) raise slippage
levels on fills, 2) widen the bid/offer spread, and 3) fill the marketplace with
all kinds of mystery ticks and stop hunts. And as I have stated before, and will
keep repeating until you recite it in your sleep, “it’s the setup stupid … nothing
more, nothing less … get the setups right in the market you are trading, and
success over time is a slam dunk”! Trade on news, your efforts as an “analyst”,
or what some assclown on CNBC says … “well, you’re toast Skippy, that’s all
there is to it”.
Turning to today’s trading … overnight saw the usual Chucklehead suspects in
Asia, do what they do best, and that’s bid anything higher … of course, when
they’re done they get it shoved up their collective donkeys until their teeth hurt
… it’s what they do, and never seem to learn the lessons of trading. I said
yesterday, the key here in EURUSD is the 10 YR. Bund rate … any sharp
selloff in EURUSD almost has to be accompanied by a reduction in yield and
the subsequent “flight to quality” in 10 YR. paper … map today’s EURUSD
moves against the 10 YR. Bund, and you’ll see what I mean. And in case you
missed it, since Turnkey Forex doesn’t offer government bonds on the MT4,
HOT Forex does, and you can easily open a demo account and follow US, UK,
and German 10 YR. government paper via the CFD’s. [And just as an aside,
take a look at the HOT Forex spreads and RT commissions versus Turnkey
… why anybody would trade there is a mystery to me, unless you like giving
money away.]
With the semi “crash” in stock indices, and the fact EURUSD is in its
attempted 8th week of moving higher, it’s not gonna be easy to get the “bull
ball” rolling again to the upside … we need to see at least this week, and
more than likely 2 - 3 weeks of backing and filling in EURUSD price that
threaten sell stops on the downside … sure, we’ll get the rallies, but they will
be brief and won’t have the “legs” we’ve seen the last 7 weeks … simply put,
it’s probably gonna take a while before this stuff challenges 1.25380 again
and is able to move higher. In addition, any threat to Merkel’s coalition
government with the SPD that falls apart, and you can kiss the bull market
in EURUSD goodbye … so, plenty to keep your eye on and be cognizant of
the ramifications, all the while evaluating the “setup” to make profitable
trades.
One trade today, as we caught a move higher … PAMM up 0.3%.
All I can do is laugh at the way stock indices are trading … here at the NYSE
open, a strong rally … the absolute worst thing you want to see … early buyers
are chumps at the poker table, cuz when they are done tripping over
themselves buying stocks again in the familiar BTFD mode, the sellers show
up and take it lower … my point is simple: understand and learn the setups for
bull & bear markets, and never buy rallies or sell breaks … patience &
discipline is the key to doing this, and last I checked, these two qualities are
free to everyone.
Because of the great unwind in world equities indices and the spike in volatility
across the board, things are getting a tad “nuts” on the trading conditions
front; no matter your market, spreads and slippage are up “bigly & yuge”, and
nothing is being spared the carnage. Both Cable & EURUSD right now are a
crapshoot, and no move is lasting in duration. It’s a good time to back away
some and let the dust settle, and not do “stupid shit” and let the scumbag LP
banks clip you in the afternoon New York trade … if it’s like this just before Noon,
wait ‘till any of this stuff gets to the New York close today … ice your machine
down, it’s gonna be a wild afternoon. In any event, they’re gonna do it without
me, simply cuz “risk” [there’s that nasty four letter word again] is in orbit and
looks like it could get worse this afternoon. We’ll see what happens tomorrow
… I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!
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