“New FED chief to speak … markets on suicide watch!”
The U.S. has a new FED chief … although, Spicoli could do just as good a job
as any of the clueless Twits they march up to Capitol Hill to lie through their
teeth … somebody explain to me why 2% inflation is “good”? It robs people
of savings and devalues the currency, and makes passing an inheritance to
future generations a joke … you realize since the FED was formed in 1913,
the value of the U.S. Dollar has been debased over 98%? … “who says we
aren’t Venezuela”?
“Oh wait, I forgot … the middle class are supposed to be “worker bees”
… you’re not supposed to accumulate wealth over time, cuz your job is to be in
the “Pudding Business” ‘till you drop from exhaustion … your family and kids
don’t get free health care, government benefits, free college tuition, etc. like
illegal aliens & immigrants do … nope … your job is to STFU and take it, while
assclowns that run large U.S. corporations into the ground and thus kill your
job, get “golden parachutes” worth hundreds of millions of dollars for the
worthless effort … meanwhile in D.C., the POLS run the country into the
ground while opening the borders to every dirt bag who wants in … sure, what’s
not to like while they destroy traditional institutions, destabilize the country with
asinine policies, and then to rub salt in your face, they then devalue the worth of
your money and wealth”! It’s been this way since I graduated from college
many years ago … why do you think I became a trader?
And since the website gets a lot of new readers, and it’s been a while since I
put the image up, directly below is your application for the “Pudding Business
… if the shoe fits, wear it”!
“I’m sure this was your dream job when you were in 8th grade … right?”
We’ve all been in this position … question is, what do you do about it? I’ll put
up with all the bullshit trading puts on my plate, cuz it’s my plate and I call the
shots … I never was, nor will ever be, the kind of guy who can diligently work
for some assclown company and take marching orders from a clueless manager
who is more like an SS Commandant, simply for a measly paycheck.
So, the world is in “hurry up & wait” mode ‘till Powell makes his first
statements as the new FED chief, taking over from Grandma Yellen, where the
countdown to a seven figure “gig” at JPM or Vampire Squid as a “consultant”
has commenced … his prepared statements to Congress will be released at 8:30
A.M. EST. My only question is, “has he learned the proper way to speak
“bullshit”, or is he a little rough around the edges … soon enough we’ll find out”.
Turning to today’s market … the first 13 hours plus a complete waste of time;
first, the Chuckleheads in Asia did “their thing” [“buy Mortimer, buy”!!], and
coming into the European open, EURUSD is on the high of the day … “you
know what this means, right”? … and then it’s “4 steps down 3 steps up” to
below even [1.23000] 5 hours later. A ton of news hitting the wires affecting
EURUSD, but the main event for today is Spicoli giving his virgin FED
Chairman “snowjob” to Congress … and sure enough, he puts his foot in his
mouth and rattles markets … apparently, he hasn’t learned the fine art of
talking for an hour and saying absolutely nothing anybody can understand,
while everybody within earshot reaches for the aspirin bottle. So, a non-event
until 13:30 server time. Basically, today trades like it’s an NFP Friday, which
by the way, we get in 3 days [oh joy].
“Well, that escalated quickly, didn’t it”? And here is where “situational
awareness” means everything; you simply got to know that EURUSD price
under 1.2280 spells big trouble for being long … that doesn’t mean it has to go
lower, but you have to know that the last 5 days has seen this level hold, and if
price gets underneath it and your long with a cozy stop, you run the risk of
getting filled nowhere near your stop price … reward/risk ratio is definitely not
in your favor here, cuz any long position gain is dwarfed by potential stop loss
selling … “you simply must pass on the temptation to get long; all you’re doing by
getting long is hoping to make some money that will someday go towards a large
loss in the same situation … that’s it … and more than likely, the money ain’t
gonna be there to eat the loss … therefore, you lose and lose big”. And, that’s
exactly what I did … I left it alone.
Seeing price go lower, I know trading from the long side I have to be almost
perfect in both entry and liquidation … short selling is still premature for
EURUSD at this point, simply cuz all we are seeing is the long awaited
correction I wrote about weeks ago. And after support level after support level
from the last 1 - 2 weeks gets taken out on stops, you can see from the M1
candlestick just how ugly it can be … “why the hell would anybody want to get
caught in this kind of selling by trying to pick a bottom; you need to see some
support, and more importantly a failure to go down and then looking for “The
Teacup Handle Turn” for entry, and then a pop to get out … it’s the only chance
I know I have of turning a profit without getting butchered like a hog in the
slaughterhouse”.
Only one trade today … PAMM up slightly, about half way to 0.1% …
understatement of the day: “being long today is not the place to be”.
I want to go into some detail on the trade I made, cuz it will give you insight
into my thought process as to why then, and why at the price I made it.
Directly below the M1, with commentary.
Think for a second about what it is that got me “profit” out of this trade; it
wasn’t my good looks [“wait … what; no”?], gut feeling, instincts as an analyst,
or I got lucky … “it was 100%, solely the setup; nothing more nothing less, and
the extremely high probability that “The Teacup Handle Turn” will be profitable
over 95% of the time … and when it fails just over the neckline, you got to take
the small profit and then come back later, whenever that is … especially on a day
longs are getting whacked by the truckload”. You simply can’t “blink”, or stop to
“think” about it … “you snooze, you lose”! … you have to know beforehand
what it is you must do, and that’s called “situational awareness”. As newer
traders tend to stumble, simply cuz they don’t know any better, well now you
know how it has to be … and if I’m wrong, and it goes higher 2 milliseconds
after I get out, so what? … Remember, “opportunity is infinite, capital is finite”!
One thing I should also mention, is over the course of the history of EURUSD,
quite often the big bull runs it has made since its inception in 1999, price has
seen 400 - 600 PIP corrections over multiple weeks before the bull run
resumes. What that means, is that we could easily see EURUSD price go down
to the 1.21 - 1.19 area and still be in a bull market; it most definitely isn’t out
of the realm of possibility. I’m not saying it will, but just keep some perspective
about market action before you flip from bull to bear and pay the consequences
for being way too early … “we’re traders, not analysts”.
We are now in the early New York afternoon, and EURUSD has seen some
short covering back up to the 1.22400 - 500 area, from the low on panic selling
while the SP500 was getting “monkey hammered” … it’s hard for me too tell
which market is watching which market … all of them scared literally shitless
over U.S. higher interest rates, which Spicoli gave his blessing for earlier to
Congress. If the market stays here at this level, it’s gonna make for an
interesting next couple of days … a literal data dump capped off with NFP on
Friday … question is, does the 1.22000 level get taken out via sell stops in
EURUSD, and how big are they? … will strong data and a strong NFP report
do the trick, or is this simply a “suckers dump” by weak longs, and EURUSD
rallies quickly and strongly from here? I dunno, but what matters most is that
volatility will stay high and provide plenty of opportunity.
A tough day to be long … only after price goes down 120+ PIPS do we get a
bounce on short covering … maybe a few fresh longs coming in, but I doubt it;
the trading action suggests short covering. I really don’t like these shortened
days due to news; as I’ve said before, it skews action and creates panic in the
market, and by the time price action hits “DEFCON 1”, it becomes a
crapshoot with reward/risk totally skewed towards losing money. And “oh joy”,
NFP in 3 days, so we get another one.
Newer traders, especially, must understand that financial markets will never
allow you to “have your cake and eat it to”; for every advantage you think you
have, you had to “give up” something to get it. Down days in bull markets, and
up days in bear markets can be dealt with effectively by the algorithms if done
right, and today proves that, cuz what I said earlier isn’t any different than
what I have been writing about for a very long time … which is, it’s all about
the “setup”. We’ll see what tomorrow brings … I’m outta here … until
tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
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