THE VANISHING MARKET

 

“Clueless POLS have a new toy … financial markets for policy purposes”.

The problem in the financial world today, isn’t “Plunge Protection Team” 

 [PPT] protected U.S. equity markets … the very real and growing problem is 

world debt. There simply is no way to “herd the cats” together and make it all 

go away; to whit, exploding U.S. debt with more coming via “infrastructure” 

spending, massive China & Italian bank problems, along with Spain’s problems 

… and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. With yields leaping higher everywhere, 

the world’s PPT’s are going to have their work cut out for themselves propping 

up world index markets … so where does the capital go?

And as we are seeing now, just because yields are rising in U.S. Treasuries, 

the U.S.  Dollar is not doing well … rising debt, uncertain political problems 

[immigration & debt ceiling at the forefront], extremely overvalued markets, 

and a clueless FED that will eventually induce a nasty recession by raising 

rates to stem the Dollar from collapsing … and most big money managers see 

it clear as day.

The problem for EURUSD right now, is one of extension … too far, too fast 

… too be sure, the benchmark 10YR. German Bund, is rising just as fast as 

the 10YR. U.S. Treasury Note; on a percentage basis, it’s faster, and this is 

lending big support for EURUSD. Quite frankly, though, the market has not 

spent any time at all on the downside from 600+ PIPS ago, except for very 

brief scumbag LP bank stop runs … from there, it’s consolidate for 1 hour 

and then it’s off to the races again. Remember the scumbag LP Banks  

“Christmas Day Heist”, 6 week ago? That bit of genuine thievery saw 

EURUSD plunge to the 1.15500 level before quickly recovering … from the 

most recent high, that’s almost 1,000 PIPS! 

Markets either go down or sideways to work off overbought, or too bullish, 

indicators … with the runup we’ve seen, EURUSD needs to back off, 

otherwise we’re looking at a pure “train wreck” from wherever it tops out; 

and that will be “messy” to say the least. 

Turning to today’s trading … I’m not at all thrilled to be buying EURUSD 

above the 1.24000 level … as I said above, this market needs to go down, and 

not just on bullshit, scumbag LP bank stop hunts in the wee hours … it

starts with Asia getting long and buying, and then Europe coming in and 

“dropping the hammer” down … all the long positions this last week above 

1.24000, then get unmercifully slaughtered, and we end up with a bottom a 

week to 10 days out that’s well worth being long from and holding. So far, we 

haven’t seen anything remotely approaching panic selling from longs … it 

doesn’t have to be extremely deep, just fast & vicious [which, it always is].

Next week starts the 5th week of the New Year, and we’ve yet to see, except for 

one day where Asia puked and Europe blasted off right from the open, any kind 

of systematic stop hunting by the scumbag LP’s on the downside … my fear is, 

we’re a lot closer to it than most bulls in EURUSD want to admit, and so buying 

above 1.24000, and especially 1.24400 - 1.24500 is not something I really want to 

do … I’ve played this rodeo longer than some have been alive, and I know how it 

ends, and how the market always will trap longs and make it look like it’s never 

gonna ever have another down tick … and then the roof falls in and it heads 

lower … systematic and slow at first, then picking up steam, forcing the clueless 

who double or triple up losing long positions to puke mightily … so far, we 

haven’t seen any of this, but I know it’s coming. It doesn’t look like it’s gonna be 

today, what with NFP tomorrow [oh joy], and most not wanting to do anything 

major today before the report.

One trade today, PAMM up between 0.1% - 0.2%. If there ever was a day

EURUSD should be up sharply, this day is it, but checking the tape at the NYSE 

open, it’s up about 26 PIPS @ 1.24430 … big whoop, after getting rejected twice 

at the 1.24500 & 1.24600 levels earlier. And while it’s only 20 or so PIPS off the 

high, the speed of the down M1’s worries me up here, cuz if you get caught in 

one when long it will sting.

I’m outta here early today, cuz it’s that time of year for my annual physical early 

this afternoon, and the Mrs. is dragging me out the door to make sure I show up 

and don’t use trading as an excuse not to go ; same old crusty Doc I saw a couple 

weeks ago when I had “man flu”. I’m sure he will be thrilled to see me. 

Tomorrow sees another NFP Friday [oh joy]; however, unless the number is way 

off consensus, I don’t see it as a driving force in EURUSD tomorrow, so I hold 

out some hope it can be a relatively normal trading day. I’m still looking for the 

good breaks in EURUSD, inside this bull market, to bring out the heavy artillery 

with volume size … so far we haven’t seen it, but I can assure you it’s on its way. 

Back at it tonight in Asia, and then we’ll see what the NFP brings tomorrow 

… Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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