REALITY IS A BRUTAL TEACHER

 

“I’ll take “Red Pills” for $1,000 Alex!”

Here we are, finding out the hard way that this year’s Holiday season of 2021 is

a complete DUD … some years it’s wild, some it’s normal, and then there’s this

bullshit we find ourselves in now … granted, it’s not completely comatose, as

crypto has shown some life [not much but some], crude oil refuses to take a

back seat, and the “Spoos”, while they refuse to trade, are still being

manipulated higher … all of FX, along with gold might as well be closed.

While this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, markets of all stripes are the

ultimate arbiters of reality … good, bad, or indifferent, they’re always sending

subtle messages to participants WILLING to listen … and if you don’t listen?

… well, that’s easy cuz you get “whacked” … I sat down yesterday afternoon and

had coffee with some trading friends, and when I had time for myself later in the

day, it dawned on me that we spent almost our entire time talking about crypto,

and all the things we took for granted about mainstream markets that are no

longer true, but instead manifest inside the crypto space … and then there’s

crude oil, and that drew nothing but blank stares into space … why? … certainly,

all of us can trade the oil futures if we want, and there’s even the “micro” oil

futures [100 barrels size per 1 lot]  the CME trotted out to meet the competition

from CFDs … so what’s holding any of you back? … can’t be cuz it’s “stuck in

mud”, as VIX in this space has been high since the hoax pandemic started in

February 2020, which is almost 2 years ago … remember the April 2020 futures

contract going off the board at -$40 per barrel? … I sure as hell do!

Then there are the CFDs in oil … and what you’re going to find researching this,

is either the house gives you almost no leverage [under 10X] and a lower spread,

OR higher leverage [30X+] and spreads that run the gamut from 3 cents per

barrel, to all the way up to 8 cents per barrel [hold the laughter] … OK, why do

you guys choose to NOT trade oil? … oh, it’s too volatile?? … puleeze, gimme a

frickin’ break here as you sit there and talk about BTC & ETH, that are at a

MINIMUM 2X - 5X [at times] MOAR! volatile than crude … and at the end of the

day, once you start pulling teeth to get the real answers, it comes down to 1) I

don’t like OPEC+, and 2) I really don’t like oil companies & refiners … wait, WUT?

I don’t like cauliflower, but I don’t associate it with anything like trading … money

is money, who gives a shit about how/what/when/where and in which market you

make it? … as most readers know, I’d trade soiled underwear futures if conditions

were right! … and here’s an interesting metric … look at the spread of a market

versus its 20 Day Range MA … and if you use Turnkey’s crude oil CFD for oil,

here are some of the metrics you get.

GBPUSD 1.22% … WTI OIL 1.09% … ETHUSD 0.81% … BTCUSD 0.86%

… SP500 0.83%

In other words, fractions of tenths of a percent ain’t gonna be what separates

winning trading strategies from losing ones … yea, there could be slippage

issues in any of these, but there’s no way to measure that in any consistent

fashion … which brings me to a point I haven’t considered before … ETH is only

about 2X in terms of VIX than crude oil is … granted, in some crypto pairs like

DOTUSD the percentage above will be slightly lower, but again it’s fractions of 1%

difference, so shouldn’t crude oil respond as well to the crypto algorithm like ETH

or DOT does? … and after some number crunching, yes it does! … if Turnkey can

keep the crude oil spread at 3 cents [or lower], but no higher, then I’m simply

wrong about their crude oil CFD being a “RIP OFF” … by comparison, it’s better

to trade crude with a 3 cent spread than it is to trade Cable with a 1 PIP spread,

based on how its trading on any given day, or inside its 20 Day Range MA

… quite frankly, who’d a thunk it!?

By lessening the VIX by about a factor of 2, crude does have some algorithm

filters not needed in the crypto pairs … remember, HIGH VIX forgives a lot of

trading sins, but lower the VIX and you’re in regular territory that needs added

attention … and although crude looks and feels the same as many of the alt-coins,

you have to remember that 1) this is a market that has enormous commercials

[sell side oil companies, buy side oil refiners], 2) the FED’s CNTRL-P machine

can’t produce or deliver a barrel of crude oil, thus eliminating the scumbag banks,

and 3) OPEC+ [meaning Vlad & crew] are always ever present and can’t be

ignored … from what I can gather, it looks like Turnkey’s WTI CFD is a blend of

the top 3 nearest futures expirations to calculate price, and some other houses

use this as well or might only use the top 2 … nobody that I know of mirrors the

front month for a CFD.

The thing about crude, though, is it ISN’T A PURE SCALPING MARKET … taken

in the context of “day trades” and it’s a different story altogether … quite frankly

when the opportunity presents itself, scalps can be taken, but most buy / sell fuel

comes after good runs, and not at the start of a move … of course, this isn’t 100%

cuz nothing ever is, but most of the time this holds true … the bottom line is

simply that crude at Turnkey [if the 3 cent spread holds or lower]  can be traded,

but not like trading GBP, JPY, or the “Spoos” … it needs longer scope to run the

course and be effective … and given the way the 3 markets just named are trading

versus crude even considering Holiday conditions, I should be in crude up to my

eyeballs! … fact is, I’ll turn my attention to crude AFTER THE NEW YEARS

HOLIDAY THIS WEEKEND … come next Monday, it will be in the mix for the PAMM,

and most likely right at the top of what I’m watching for algo signal trades … and

while it sucks to be wrong about things, it sucks even worse if you ignore it as if

it didn’t exist … and when it comes to trading, there is no place for ego … things

are what they are … man up, make some changes and go do it! … simple as that!

And yes, I know it’s “Holiday markets” time of year, and we’re in some pretty

lousy markets IMHO … having said that, though, I’m past my eyeballs of being

sick & tired of bullshit FX markets … so much so, that I’m at the point of simply

wiping them off my screens … seriously, THEY ARE PATHETIC as tradeable,

especially scalping markets … simply a disaster of central bank manipulation,

cuz as I have said, there aren’t any specs trading FX to speak of in terms of

volumes, cuz MOST SPECS have moved to either crude, “Spoos”, or crypto

… it’s all institutions, and cuz of that simple construct, it’s why there IS NO

CORRECTIVE TRADING ACTIVITY INSIDE OF ANY MOVE UP OR DOWN

… everything is a straight shot … the scumbag banks see the institutional

demand, they front run the orders, and they keep pressing until demand ebbs

… and then when that happens there’s nothing left except “Loser Formations”

from hell … it leads to straight up or straight down moves coming out of nowhere,

but most likely after New York comes in and we move closer to the London Fix,

and the banks can gauge where buying or selling interest lies … of course, we

can’t get that information, so we have no clue when it starts or when it ends

… trading FX is like flying a jet, at night in the mountains with no instruments,

and it leads to the same result, namely crash & burn … and the proof is in the

pudding!

Today’s clusterfark of either straight up or down comes in GBPUSD … the Yen is

dead, literally … and do you think there is any snowball’s chance in hell of any

corrective activity in Cable on it’s run up from the bottom once New York came

in? … of course not, unless you think 7 PIPS defines “corrective activity”, which I

don’t … and now that the London Fix is over and done with, Cable won’t do shit

cuz there ain’t anybody who cares to play with the institutions gone … so if you

somehow got caught in that run the wrong way, please enlighten me on how you

make the money back anytime soon with almost ZERO VIX? … yes, crickets and

plenty of ‘em! … to look reality in the face about markets today, the only

conclusion you can come to is that FX is a disaster and GETTING WORSE … and

that includes gold, which is nothing more than a cruel joke when talking about

trading markets … and while nothing is perfect, and the “Spoos” certainly have

their moments of dysfunction when it comes to buy side manipulation and

straight runs up, they in fact aren’t any worse than any FX pair, and they have

much larger VIX.

And that brings me back to crude … why? … cuz this morning we had the usual

oil inventories report out of Cushing OK. on Wednesday morning at

10:30 AM EST, along with products, and after the report crude rallied $1.30 and is

now breaking back over $1 … like crypto, this is known as VIX folks, not some

7 PIP horseshit which was the biggest break in the Cable rally … this is what real

VIX looks like, and while we might not get moves like this everyday in crude, WE

DON’T NEED TO! … the algorithm should be good in crude on any 20 Day Range

MA of OVER $1.50+, and we’re plenty past that [today it’s at $2.80] with every

reason to see it stay above $2.25 - $2.50+ going forward into 2022 and beyond

… Cable and/or Yen will be lucky to see a 130 PIP move within 30 minutes if it

happens before June 2022!

With China coming to the forefront over the last few years, WTI crude has started

to move earlier in the European session than it used to … crude starts moving

usually around 5AM - 6 AM, and unless there’s news, starts to tail off once we hit

about 2:30 PM EST - 3 PM EST … that makes for 9 - 10 hours of trading, with some

scalps, but mostly good day trades if played correctly and we get the predictable

ranges … like I said before, from a trading perspective it’s a lot like trading the

crypto pair DOTUSD [PolkaDot], or any other market moving alt-coin crypto pair

… simply ride the move! … and so, come Monday [cuz I don’t want to get involved

in end of year positioning in a potentially thin market], unless Cable & Yen get their

respective shit together very quickly in the new year of 2022, I’ll be focusing and

trading “Spoos” and crude … simple as that … 2022 is gonna see a doubling or

tripling+ of the PAMM, and the so far “rinky dink” moves in FX aren’t doing us any

favors, so screw ‘em! … I’ve simply run out of patience with so called markets that

don’t move and compared to the rest of the trading spaces including crypto, are a

frickin’ JOKE … and quite frankly, if your eyes are open and your brain works, this

DEFINES FX!

Over in crypto land today, ETH started out early showing promise to the downside

for another “monkey hammered” washout, but it couldn’t deliver, and as we move

into the New York afternoon it’s another low range day a good 50%+ UNDER its 20

Day Range MA so far … sure things can change, this is crypto dude! … but so far

it looks and feels dead … having said that, inside this low range, we did get one

algo buy signal, and “The Syndicate” is up a little more than 0.1% … grinding for

yield!

I’m a little disappointed in myself for not recognizing earlier the similarities

between crude oil and some of the alt-coins, and for simply being blinded by the

scalping bug … but as so often is the case in studying markets, unless you ask

very specific questions, your answers run a good probability of not being what

you wanted, while at the same time being very, very close to what you did want to

know! … no better example of that then crude … but no matter cuz here we are,

and that’s how professional traders think and work!

I will simply add, that if we get to the point where the “Spoos” 20 Day Range MA

falls below 35 index points, I’ll most likely move over to DOW30, where when

conditions are slower will give us a better trade with a somewhat thinner spread

… currently in the “Spoos” the 20 Day Range MA as of today as I write is 75.8

index points, and while I don’t think this lofty level can be maintained going into

2022, and so should be lower into the high 50’s or low to mid 60’s, I don’t see it

below 35 anytime soon … today’s bullshit range is currently 21 index points here

in mid afternoon of New York … maybe it can take out the low and extend the

range slightly, but even so we’re still plenty below the 20 Day Range MA of 75.8

index points … crude oil the only mover today of any significance, off of a draw

in oil stocks … still, crude’s range today is $2.00, and that’s well below its 20 Day

Range MA of $2.80.

No trades today in the Turnkey PAMM … FX simply a joke, and the “Spoos”

caught up in some serious bullshit of their own, some 70%+ UNDER their 20 Day

Range MA and we’ve hit that time of day where there’s no time left on the clock,

cuz if the “Spoos” start breaking now, there’s a high probability it spells

TROUBLE [less than 90 minutes to the close] … crude trading comes Monday

when we’re into the New Year … and if both “Stock Bellies” and crude oil “die

on the vine” anytime in 2022 and go BELOW algorithm thresholds for profitable

trading [“Spoos” 35 index points, Crude oil $1.50], I’ll go to “Plan C”, which is

the crypto pair LTCUSD [LiteCoin] at Turnkey, as it’s the only crypto pair they

haven’t fucked up with a ridiculous spread [but it’s the slowest of the crypto

movers] … and in case you’re wondering, “Plan D” is prayer … however, I don’t

believe either crude or the “Spoos” taper off anytime soon, especially crude,

since the world is completely not invested in oil infrastructure to produce more,

OPEC+ ain’t interested in Biden’s bullshit of pumping MOAR!, and he is beholden

to anti oil special interests that won’t allow production increases in the U.S., and

“IF” the hoax pandemic wanes and economies improve, oil will take off … none

of this is a scenario for lackluster oil prices or VIX! … and to put the proverbial

“cherry” on top of this cupcake, the trading algorithm with crypto parameters &

metrics “NAILS” crude to the barn door for results … so, we just have to get

through this weekend and we’re ready to go.   

…  outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

WHERE DO I GO TO GET “VACCINATED” AGAINST GOVERNMENT?

 

“Virus 1 - “Taliban Joe” 0 … say hi to the world’s biggest, LIAR idiot!”

Remember those lying words, “I’m gonna defeat the virus”? … crammed into so

many other lies & distortions, even Libtards shake their heads at this Doofus

… quite frankly, there isn’t anything this dumb ass can say that I believe is true

… his entire life is a LIE … and in 11 short months we now have the HIGHEST

INFLATION RATE IN U.S. HISTORY, record levels of debt that keep growing, crime

surging everywhere, a border crisis that is completely ignored, and a brand new

“police state” of health Nazi’s run by big Pharma … “when you voted for this

idiot, is this what you expected or wanted”?

So where do I go to escape “idiot government”? … they create the problem, and

then demand to solve it by making it worse at every turn … is there a bigger evil

in the world than this Fauci Assclown? … what about the FED? … well now, that

is an interesting comparison, since the FED was created on Jekyll Island, in

secret in 1913, directly on top of an ancient Satanic altar! … yes, that’s turned

out well for the middle class hasn’t it?

And speaking of being “sold out”, outside of crypto markets, somebody point me

to where “free markets” trade … “I’d settle for ONE”! … maybe you could make a

case for crude oil, but as I have already shown, crude can’t be traded by smaller

accounts cuz the CFD’s are a total joke … but excusing that, find me ONE … and

you won’t be able to do that cuz of FED market manipulation … there’s only one

true solution, and that’s END THE FED! … but that isn’t likely cuz they exist for

the bribery, graft, & corruption that’s made them famous … how would Spicoli

trade his portfolio of “Stonks” if he wasn’t directing policy that affects them?

… what would the poor Apparatchik do if he had to compete in a free market

that’s legit? … quite frankly, he’s the perfect metaphor for the entire U.S.

economy that’s mostly “fascist” in nature, who’s “fat cats” essentially get free

money to manipulate “Stonks” higher via corporate buybacks … what a

beautiful Ponzi scheme!

I’ve run out of adjectives … language has failed … looking at my screen, after

15+ hours of pure bullshit, Cable with a 29 PIP range, Yen with a 19 PIP range,

and the “Spoos” manipulated higher for the umpteenth day in a row cuz they

can … clusterfark comes to mind … and if you somehow think this represents

“trading”, you need psychological help … what an absolute disaster … even

crypto! … ETH goes lower by $200 in the middle of the Asian session, and since

then has gone straight sideways in the “Loser Formation”, where for the last 8

hours as I write, ETH has about a $35 - $40 range … “do I have to F-ing move to

Thailand for cryin’ out loud to get some FRICKIN’ movement?”! … where is it

written that the Chuckleheads, along with Mrs. Watanabe & Gal Pals, get all the

trading action in crypto? … this is seriously starting to get under my skin a little

bit! … the world’s largest selection of loser traders, gathered up in one time slot,

and they repeatedly get taken to the cleaners while I sleep! … Oh the humanity!

… and yes, I don’t need anybody to remind me we’re in “Holiday trading mode”,

but this is F-ing ridiculous.

And here at the London Fix as Europe closes, it’s the biggest sack of bullshit in

Cable & USDJPY you’re about to ever see … 9+ hours of torture, and Cable ends

with about a 45 PIP range, thanks to a last half hour that saw that range to the

downside by about 20 PIPS, and if it hadn’t of been for that it would truly be

embarrassing … no bounce off that low to speak of, simply cuz there’s nothing

here but a bunch of “Jimbo” corporate types that come with ZERO buy or sell

fuel … then there’s the Yen, which gets today’s “Pitiful Award” … congrats of

9+ hours of a 20 PIP range, which is about as dead as I’ve ever seen it … and that

leaves the “Spoos”, caught up in their own manipulation higher and can’t

squeeze more Sheeple Dopes to take the plunge and get long today … the range

here a very paltry 25 index points for the day, and it hasn’t moved for hours,

stuck right around 4800 … oh fun oh joy, come and play the casino manipulation

table games! … what an absolute joke, and anybody that calls these “markets” is

delusional … now into the New York afternoon with the criminal Wall Street

banks, and if you thought it was bad with Europe open [it was!], hang on to your

hats for the bullshit prepared by JPM, Squid, and the other virus outfits

pretending to be legit … no thanks. 20 Day Range MA’s so far away from ranges

today, you need a telescope to find or see ‘em! … the “Spoos” a good 60%+

UNDER their 20 Day Range MA, and while you can excuse it for being somewhat

under cuz of the Holiday week we’re in, this is F-ing ridiculous.

There simply isn’t anything I can do trading wise with shit like this … nothing

… everything is a coin flip, simply cuz algorithm parameters & metrics DON’T

GO THIS LOW ON THE VIX SCALE … IT IS WHAT IT IS … and as a result, no

trades today for the Turnkey PAMM … onto tomorrow.

Over in crypto land finally some “blitzkrieg” to the downside, as ETH is getting

“monkey hammered” today, and enjoying [finally!] a $300+ range … and what

does crypto have the government manipulated markets on the MT4 don’t?

… that’s right kids, it has “fear & greed” going for it, cuz that’s what specs do!

… meaning, either FOMO or panic rules … today it’s panic, and off panic bottoms,

what happens in crypto that government manipulated markets on the MT4 don’t

have? … right, it bounces hard & fast cuz shorts panic … meaning, it has the

necessary HIGH VIX that shit government manipulated markets on the MT4 don’t

have … meaning, if you get caught the wrong way in the manipulated markets,

good luck getting that market to be volatile enough on corrective trading activity

to get you a profit, cuz most of the time the scumbag LP banks will not allow that

to happen … and in tight, sloppy ranges that can see reversals, double or even

triple reversals, you got your work cut out for yourself judging what these

asshole banks are gonna do … this is what tight ranges do, and this is why I

rarely trade them, cuz they’re dangerous as hell, and can go at the “speed of

light” to the other side of the equation in seconds or just a minute or two … now

what? … and sure, as we’ve just seen recently, crypto has its moments as well

cuz nothing is 100% guaranteed … so when VIX collapses, just sit tight and wait

it out and sure enough VIX comes back with a vengeance … you can’t say that

about anything on the MT4, except maybe crude oil, but the CFD’s suck across

the board so it’s a moot point.

And so, just as the sun comes out after the storms, crypto bounces with plenty

of VIX off sell stop hunt lows, and natch, the crypto algo is there to capture profit

… multiple trades today in ETH for “The Syndicate”, and we’re UP

APPROXIMATELY 0.4%

As I said earlier, of course I know we’re in Holiday markets and things can and

most often do get slow … but this slow? … both Cable & Yen today utterly

worthless as trading vehicles, with the “Spoos” not far behind … a sad state of

affairs to be sure, but I can’t make this shit move, so it’s out of my hands

completely … this too shall pass … onto tomorrow.

…  outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas