Here we are, finding out the hard way that this year’s Holiday season of 2021 is
a complete DUD … some years it’s wild, some it’s normal, and then there’s this
bullshit we find ourselves in now … granted, it’s not completely comatose, as
crypto has shown some life [not much but some], crude oil refuses to take a
back seat, and the “Spoos”, while they refuse to trade, are still being
manipulated higher … all of FX, along with gold might as well be closed.
While this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, markets of all stripes are the
ultimate arbiters of reality … good, bad, or indifferent, they’re always sending
subtle messages to participants WILLING to listen … and if you don’t listen?
… well, that’s easy cuz you get “whacked” … I sat down yesterday afternoon and
had coffee with some trading friends, and when I had time for myself later in the
day, it dawned on me that we spent almost our entire time talking about crypto,
and all the things we took for granted about mainstream markets that are no
longer true, but instead manifest inside the crypto space … and then there’s
crude oil, and that drew nothing but blank stares into space … why? … certainly,
all of us can trade the oil futures if we want, and there’s even the “micro” oil
futures [100 barrels size per 1 lot] the CME trotted out to meet the competition
from CFDs … so what’s holding any of you back? … can’t be cuz it’s “stuck in
mud”, as VIX in this space has been high since the hoax pandemic started in
February 2020, which is almost 2 years ago … remember the April 2020 futures
contract going off the board at -$40 per barrel? … I sure as hell do!
Then there are the CFDs in oil … and what you’re going to find researching this,
is either the house gives you almost no leverage [under 10X] and a lower spread,
OR higher leverage [30X+] and spreads that run the gamut from 3 cents per
barrel, to all the way up to 8 cents per barrel [hold the laughter] … OK, why do
you guys choose to NOT trade oil? … oh, it’s too volatile?? … puleeze, gimme a
frickin’ break here as you sit there and talk about BTC & ETH, that are at a
MINIMUM 2X - 5X [at times] MOAR! volatile than crude … and at the end of the
day, once you start pulling teeth to get the real answers, it comes down to 1) I
don’t like OPEC+, and 2) I really don’t like oil companies & refiners … wait, WUT?
I don’t like cauliflower, but I don’t associate it with anything like trading … money
is money, who gives a shit about how/what/when/where and in which market you
make it? … as most readers know, I’d trade soiled underwear futures if conditions
were right! … and here’s an interesting metric … look at the spread of a market
versus its 20 Day Range MA … and if you use Turnkey’s crude oil CFD for oil,
here are some of the metrics you get.
GBPUSD 1.22% … WTI OIL 1.09% … ETHUSD 0.81% … BTCUSD 0.86%
… SP500 0.83%
In other words, fractions of tenths of a percent ain’t gonna be what separates
winning trading strategies from losing ones … yea, there could be slippage
issues in any of these, but there’s no way to measure that in any consistent
fashion … which brings me to a point I haven’t considered before … ETH is only
about 2X in terms of VIX than crude oil is … granted, in some crypto pairs like
DOTUSD the percentage above will be slightly lower, but again it’s fractions of 1%
difference, so shouldn’t crude oil respond as well to the crypto algorithm like ETH
or DOT does? … and after some number crunching, yes it does! … if Turnkey can
keep the crude oil spread at 3 cents [or lower], but no higher, then I’m simply
wrong about their crude oil CFD being a “RIP OFF” … by comparison, it’s better
to trade crude with a 3 cent spread than it is to trade Cable with a 1 PIP spread,
based on how its trading on any given day, or inside its 20 Day Range MA
… quite frankly, who’d a thunk it!?
By lessening the VIX by about a factor of 2, crude does have some algorithm
filters not needed in the crypto pairs … remember, HIGH VIX forgives a lot of
trading sins, but lower the VIX and you’re in regular territory that needs added
attention … and although crude looks and feels the same as many of the alt-coins,
you have to remember that 1) this is a market that has enormous commercials
[sell side oil companies, buy side oil refiners], 2) the FED’s CNTRL-P machine
can’t produce or deliver a barrel of crude oil, thus eliminating the scumbag banks,
and 3) OPEC+ [meaning Vlad & crew] are always ever present and can’t be
ignored … from what I can gather, it looks like Turnkey’s WTI CFD is a blend of
the top 3 nearest futures expirations to calculate price, and some other houses
use this as well or might only use the top 2 … nobody that I know of mirrors the
front month for a CFD.
The thing about crude, though, is it ISN’T A PURE SCALPING MARKET … taken
in the context of “day trades” and it’s a different story altogether … quite frankly
when the opportunity presents itself, scalps can be taken, but most buy / sell fuel
comes after good runs, and not at the start of a move … of course, this isn’t 100%
cuz nothing ever is, but most of the time this holds true … the bottom line is
simply that crude at Turnkey [if the 3 cent spread holds or lower] can be traded,
but not like trading GBP, JPY, or the “Spoos” … it needs longer scope to run the
course and be effective … and given the way the 3 markets just named are trading
versus crude even considering Holiday conditions, I should be in crude up to my
eyeballs! … fact is, I’ll turn my attention to crude AFTER THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY THIS WEEKEND … come next Monday, it will be in the mix for the PAMM,
and most likely right at the top of what I’m watching for algo signal trades … and
while it sucks to be wrong about things, it sucks even worse if you ignore it as if
it didn’t exist … and when it comes to trading, there is no place for ego … things
are what they are … man up, make some changes and go do it! … simple as that!
And yes, I know it’s “Holiday markets” time of year, and we’re in some pretty
lousy markets IMHO … having said that, though, I’m past my eyeballs of being
sick & tired of bullshit FX markets … so much so, that I’m at the point of simply
wiping them off my screens … seriously, THEY ARE PATHETIC as tradeable,
especially scalping markets … simply a disaster of central bank manipulation,
cuz as I have said, there aren’t any specs trading FX to speak of in terms of
volumes, cuz MOST SPECS have moved to either crude, “Spoos”, or crypto
… it’s all institutions, and cuz of that simple construct, it’s why there IS NO
CORRECTIVE TRADING ACTIVITY INSIDE OF ANY MOVE UP OR DOWN
… everything is a straight shot … the scumbag banks see the institutional
demand, they front run the orders, and they keep pressing until demand ebbs
… and then when that happens there’s nothing left except “Loser Formations”
from hell … it leads to straight up or straight down moves coming out of nowhere,
but most likely after New York comes in and we move closer to the London Fix,
and the banks can gauge where buying or selling interest lies … of course, we
can’t get that information, so we have no clue when it starts or when it ends
… trading FX is like flying a jet, at night in the mountains with no instruments,
and it leads to the same result, namely crash & burn … and the proof is in the
pudding!
Today’s clusterfark of either straight up or down comes in GBPUSD … the Yen is
dead, literally … and do you think there is any snowball’s chance in hell of any
corrective activity in Cable on it’s run up from the bottom once New York came
in? … of course not, unless you think 7 PIPS defines “corrective activity”, which I
don’t … and now that the London Fix is over and done with, Cable won’t do shit
cuz there ain’t anybody who cares to play with the institutions gone … so if you
somehow got caught in that run the wrong way, please enlighten me on how you
make the money back anytime soon with almost ZERO VIX? … yes, crickets and
plenty of ‘em! … to look reality in the face about markets today, the only
conclusion you can come to is that FX is a disaster and GETTING WORSE … and
that includes gold, which is nothing more than a cruel joke when talking about
trading markets … and while nothing is perfect, and the “Spoos” certainly have
their moments of dysfunction when it comes to buy side manipulation and
straight runs up, they in fact aren’t any worse than any FX pair, and they have
much larger VIX.
And that brings me back to crude … why? … cuz this morning we had the usual
oil inventories report out of Cushing OK. on Wednesday morning at
10:30 AM EST, along with products, and after the report crude rallied $1.30 and is
now breaking back over $1 … like crypto, this is known as VIX folks, not some
7 PIP horseshit which was the biggest break in the Cable rally … this is what real
VIX looks like, and while we might not get moves like this everyday in crude, WE
DON’T NEED TO! … the algorithm should be good in crude on any 20 Day Range
MA of OVER $1.50+, and we’re plenty past that [today it’s at $2.80] with every
reason to see it stay above $2.25 - $2.50+ going forward into 2022 and beyond
… Cable and/or Yen will be lucky to see a 130 PIP move within 30 minutes if it
happens before June 2022!
With China coming to the forefront over the last few years, WTI crude has started
to move earlier in the European session than it used to … crude starts moving
usually around 5AM - 6 AM, and unless there’s news, starts to tail off once we hit
about 2:30 PM EST - 3 PM EST … that makes for 9 - 10 hours of trading, with some
scalps, but mostly good day trades if played correctly and we get the predictable
ranges … like I said before, from a trading perspective it’s a lot like trading the
crypto pair DOTUSD [PolkaDot], or any other market moving alt-coin crypto pair
… simply ride the move! … and so, come Monday [cuz I don’t want to get involved
in end of year positioning in a potentially thin market], unless Cable & Yen get their
respective shit together very quickly in the new year of 2022, I’ll be focusing and
trading “Spoos” and crude … simple as that … 2022 is gonna see a doubling or
tripling+ of the PAMM, and the so far “rinky dink” moves in FX aren’t doing us any
favors, so screw ‘em! … I’ve simply run out of patience with so called markets that
don’t move and compared to the rest of the trading spaces including crypto, are a
frickin’ JOKE … and quite frankly, if your eyes are open and your brain works, this
DEFINES FX!
Over in crypto land today, ETH started out early showing promise to the downside
for another “monkey hammered” washout, but it couldn’t deliver, and as we move
into the New York afternoon it’s another low range day a good 50%+ UNDER its 20
Day Range MA so far … sure things can change, this is crypto dude! … but so far
it looks and feels dead … having said that, inside this low range, we did get one
algo buy signal, and “The Syndicate” is up a little more than 0.1% … grinding for
yield!
I’m a little disappointed in myself for not recognizing earlier the similarities
between crude oil and some of the alt-coins, and for simply being blinded by the
scalping bug … but as so often is the case in studying markets, unless you ask
very specific questions, your answers run a good probability of not being what
you wanted, while at the same time being very, very close to what you did want to
know! … no better example of that then crude … but no matter cuz here we are,
and that’s how professional traders think and work!
I will simply add, that if we get to the point where the “Spoos” 20 Day Range MA
falls below 35 index points, I’ll most likely move over to DOW30, where when
conditions are slower will give us a better trade with a somewhat thinner spread
… currently in the “Spoos” the 20 Day Range MA as of today as I write is 75.8
index points, and while I don’t think this lofty level can be maintained going into
2022, and so should be lower into the high 50’s or low to mid 60’s, I don’t see it
below 35 anytime soon … today’s bullshit range is currently 21 index points here
in mid afternoon of New York … maybe it can take out the low and extend the
range slightly, but even so we’re still plenty below the 20 Day Range MA of 75.8
index points … crude oil the only mover today of any significance, off of a draw
in oil stocks … still, crude’s range today is $2.00, and that’s well below its 20 Day
Range MA of $2.80.
No trades today in the Turnkey PAMM … FX simply a joke, and the “Spoos”
caught up in some serious bullshit of their own, some 70%+ UNDER their 20 Day
Range MA and we’ve hit that time of day where there’s no time left on the clock,
cuz if the “Spoos” start breaking now, there’s a high probability it spells
TROUBLE [less than 90 minutes to the close] … crude trading comes Monday
when we’re into the New Year … and if both “Stock Bellies” and crude oil “die
on the vine” anytime in 2022 and go BELOW algorithm thresholds for profitable
trading [“Spoos” 35 index points, Crude oil $1.50], I’ll go to “Plan C”, which is
the crypto pair LTCUSD [LiteCoin] at Turnkey, as it’s the only crypto pair they
haven’t fucked up with a ridiculous spread [but it’s the slowest of the crypto
movers] … and in case you’re wondering, “Plan D” is prayer … however, I don’t
believe either crude or the “Spoos” taper off anytime soon, especially crude,
since the world is completely not invested in oil infrastructure to produce more,
OPEC+ ain’t interested in Biden’s bullshit of pumping MOAR!, and he is beholden
to anti oil special interests that won’t allow production increases in the U.S., and
“IF” the hoax pandemic wanes and economies improve, oil will take off … none
of this is a scenario for lackluster oil prices or VIX! … and to put the proverbial
“cherry” on top of this cupcake, the trading algorithm with crypto parameters &
metrics “NAILS” crude to the barn door for results … so, we just have to get
through this weekend and we’re ready to go.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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