GREAT, WE START WITH A 2 DAY CURSE

 

“Talking with markets … yea, it’s come to this!”   

A couple of days ago we started trading USDMXN, and for the last two days 

in a row, we come into New York trading, and USDMXN has already gone 

batshit crazy in Asia & Europe on the “Dollar bid” phenomenon currently 

sweeping the world, and we got 1,000+ PIP ranges, the spread doesn’t come 

into reasonable range until about 7:30 AM EST, and then it’s time to literally 

wipe out 1,300 PIPS of that 1,900 PIP range in a matter of less than an hour 

… what’s that leave us? It’s analogous to gold starting the day in New York 

with greater than $10 ranges … and almost nothing good ever comes from 

that.

USDMXN is a market like a freight train … step in front of it, and it could 

turn you into a grease spot quickly … you simply can’t step in front of it on 

a “feeling”, cuz you need more than that. Over the last 4 days, since 

Monday, USDMXN is up approximately 4,000 PIPS from the tips, and in 

the process left our trading algo a mess … for the very simple reason, price 

action is off the charts, and now comes the inevitable “messy” time periods 

when chop takes over and charts consolidate … in other words, “a little song, 

a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants” kind of trading action that is 

whippy, quick, and has lost the trend for the time being. “If it doesn’t start 

behaving … yea, I’m gonna try the gypsy curse”!

Not that there’s anything else out there trading “gangbusters”, cuz there 

isn’t … FX majors a complete nightmare … gold its same old sick self, and 

the stock indices sitting and chopping with the “Plunge Protection Team” 

[PPT] at the ready for any and all declines once they’re over. Although, a 

nice move in our secondary market USDCNH today, on the upside, with 

some good algo buy signals earlier this morning. But outside of Peso & 

Reminbi, “fugetaboutit”! Markets in general, having turned into complete 

trendless bat guano, with tiny ranges, and whatever moves do come, come in 

the dark, away from the major central trading zones.

Going forward, once the USDMXN spread comes into normal around 7 AM 

EST, I’m going to ignore scheduled reports unless they are central bank 

interest rate meetings, and inflation numbers … other than that, I don’t see 

anything that affects trading to any degree that you’d notice, if nothing 

happened at all.

So, like in gold, our “goose” is kinda cooked when we come in and the range 
is already “gangbusters” and the Peso is moving, even with 40 - 50 PIP 
bid/offer spreads … we simply have no choice but to wait until the spread 
goes normal [around 25 PIPS] before trading, and if ranges are already  
“blown up”, we simply wait it out … cuz doing anything else is doing  
“stupid shit”.

Literally zero algorithm buy signals today, and the reason I’m only interested 

in buying USDMXN today is cuz the market is in algorithm “buy mode” 

… when it goes to “sell mode”, we’ll only be interested in being short. With 

today’s monster melt-up straight to the moon in Asia & Europe, followed by 

a collapse down 1,300 PIPS, we’re left with a market today that has very wide 

algorithm parameters to get into a long trade … meaning, it has to continue 

to go “bonkers” or else we sit … and it ain’t going “bonkers” any more, as all 

small rallies get snuffed quickly and we melt lower … as we tick down to the 

end of our trading day at 2 PM EST, cuz that’s about the time the spread 

starts to widen out, time is all that will fix this, and that means tomorrow, cuz 

today on the upside is over.

So, no trades today cuz there were no high probability long positions to be 

made. “And maybe, if it’s not too inconvenient for the market, maybe tomorrow 

we can come in and NOT see a frickin’ 1,400 PIP range before the day has 

barely started … if not, it gets the gypsy curse”!

So, onto tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

 

GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS

 

“What do you say to a 1,900 PIP range day!?”  

First the bad news: on a day where USDMXN had an approximate 1900 PIP 

range, we didn’t make any trades … now, for the good news: USDMXN had a 

1900 PIP range day.

In total, we got 3 great algorithm buy signals today in USDMXN … the first 
came right before [literally a few minutes] the inflation numbers out of 
Mexico this morning … not being, or ever being a “news trader”, I can’t take 
this signal cuz we’re not playing roulette here … in fact, the numbers should 
have been Peso supportive, as inflation was running a little hotter than 
consensus estimates going into the report … “fun-dur-mentals, what’s that”? 
 … 20 minutes later there’s a 900 PIP straight up move. The second 
algorithm buy signal, I just blew it … we had the price for about 5 seconds, 
and then BOOM! … off it goes to the upside for another 200 PIPS in minutes. 
The third came in the New York afternoon when EURUSD broke below its 
2019 low for the year [so far] at 1.11770 and sell stops were set off 
… USDMXN blew through our algorithm buy point so fast, it was 
50 - 70 PIPS above our buy area in a blink of an eye, and so I decided not to 
buy it … “good call Champ, as it went up 400 PIPS in 8 minutes straight 
… meh”!

The good news of course, is that this stuff moves and moves fast … reminds 

me of Cable back in the old days, before central bank HQ manipulation, when 

it was called “The Widow Maker” … welcome to the new widows & orphans 

FX pair. Today sees USDMXN with an approximate 1,900 PIP range 

… surprisingly, it had 1,000 PIPS coming into New York trading this morning 

… nonetheless, markets are of the opinion the FED will not lower rates in 

2019, and the “Dollar bid” is back into the markets.

For the record, USDMXN doesn’t have all that many reports coming out 
during the week … today saw inflation, tomorrow sees retail sales at 9 AM 
EST, but sidestepping those landmines, there’s plenty here to keep you 
awake. This afternoon on the third algo buy signal, as the market moved to 
its high for the day [so far], there were 50 - 70 PIP changes in the bid/offer on 
the way up … great if you’re long, but a nightmare if you’re short and 
looking to cover somewhere. I would advise not to trade it before 7 AM EST, 
nor after 2 PM EST … action gets very whippy, and the spread widens 
terribly.

Gold? … well, it looks like the scumbag bullion dealer banks are attempting 

to “roll the rock back up the hill” via the “Comex con Game” … good luck 

scumbags, there aren’t any customers left to buy it, after you’ve “silverized”  

the market. 

Cable acting very sloppy with a sub 50 PIP range for the day … all the 
majors look & trade like dog shit … miniscule ranges, choppy action, no trend 
to speak of, and it’s simply more of the same from central bank HQ … God 
what a mess they’ve made of financial markets.
 

So, onto tomorrow mim amigos … Onward & Upward!!

  

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

COMMAND DECISION TIME

 

“Oh, I just did!”   

Well, it’s “command decision time” about markets … for the record, I’m not 

giving up on gold [silver probably], but there’s no reason to trade it now, 

when 1) it’s so corrupt and manipulated, 2) rallies are pathetic, and 3) price is 

below 1340 … so, when it comes back, like we know it will at some point, we’ll 

be here to take advantage of the action … hopefully by that time, a few 

scumbag bullion dealer banks can find their way to bankruptcy.

The real decision, has to do with the traditional major FX pairs … simply put, 
central bank HQ has squelched volatility to the point, where today’s action in 
Cable at 80 something PIPS looks like a wild day … it isn’t, not even close. 
And Cable is the most volatile of the major FX pairs … what a joke it’s 
become … and the others? EURUSD, USDJPY, etc.? … they’re even worse, 
and they’ve become almost impossible to trade.

This entire last month, after a whole lot of research, algorithm study, and 

looking at consistent volatility patterns over the last few years, while we still 

maintain focus on gold, for FX I’m switching gears and going to focus on 

two [2] pairs in particular; 1) first and foremost USDMXN [Mexican Peso], 

and 2) secondarily, USDCNH [offshore Chinese Yuan a/k/a “Reminbi”].

The way trends are going in major FX pairs, volatility is likely to be subdued 
for a very long time … sure, Cable moves nicely when there’s “Brexit” news 
… other than that, it’s a complete wasteland, with nothing but chop and few 
trends that develop … truth be revealed, it’s nothing but a scumbag LP bank 
meat grinder … “oh, and we’re the meat”!

Doing the math on the Mexican Peso, sure, the spread looks wide at about 

25 PIPS … but consider this: 1) it easily puts in daily ranges of over 

1,000 PIPS per day, with many days well in excess of that, 2) it’s a North 

American market in tune with the U.S. day, 3) it’s inverted, meaning it trades 

as USDMXN, which right now @ approximately 19, translates into about 

$5,200 notional per 1 lot … that’s about 50 cents per 1 lot per PIP, and most 

importantly 4) the “Hoover Dam” thing moves and moves well, meaning it 

has plenty of intraday volatility, which the major FX pairs distinctly aren’t 

exhibiting except on rare occasions when the POLS and/or Apparatchiks 

open their Pie Holes … other than that, they’re literally dead.

By comparison with Cable, today sees Cable over 8 or 9 hours with 2 moves 
lower in about 10 minutes each, totaling about 30 - 40 PIPS … miss those 2 
time frames and you got nothing to show for it but chop … USDMXN during 
the same time had the following algorithm moves …  two 600+ PIP moves, 
three 300+ PIP moves, one 200 PIP move, and one 100 PIP move … I rest my 
case.

Tomorrow, I’ll crank it up for some Peso action, and as we make money via 

1 lots, I’ll increase volumes … this continual bulshit in GBPUSD is not only 

frustrating cuz of the “Brexit shitshow circus”, it robs us of trading other 

markets due to its inexplicable inconsistent trading action … one day a 

40 PIP range, the next 120 PIPS, and then it’s right back to 50, followed by 

“Brexit” news that shoots the range to 150 PIPS … this kind of action drives 

me nuts due to its inconsistency … this simply doesn’t happen in USDMXN, 

and as I’ve stated many times in the past, “I’ll trade dirt futures if the volatility 

and action are right”, and quite frankly I’ve reached my limit of patience with 

the other FX pairs that are even worse than Cable.

I also mentioned the Reminbi … lately, it’s been rather quiet, but when it 

heats up, it trends well intraday … the key here is the spread, and that’s why 

it’s my second choice going forward.

So, while gold diddles and we wait for it to come back, I’ll be in USDMXN 
cuz it’s volatile and puts in ranges that matter almost every day, and the 
algorithm is excellent at the turns … and no, I haven’t lost my mind, but I 
might if I continue to stick with pairs that don’t move and/or spend 90%+ of 
their time doing nothing but going up one tick and then going back down 
1 tick hour after hour and then explode … it’s impossible to trade that 
effectively without taking huge risks … we need volatility, and trading the 
Peso will give us that. This upcoming weekend, I’ll be adding it to the 20 Day 
Range MA list on the Sunday update blog post.

I didn’t trade Cable today, instead focusing on USDMXN … it had a 

1,700 PIP range today I outlined above … no FX major pair came anywhere 

close to that in terms of the intraday moves it displayed, or the concerted 

“smoothness” of the trading action, which incidentally is exactly what we’re 

looking for, but definitely not getting anywhere else in the majors, either 

dollar pairs or crosses … just look at the sad state of Yen action and the 

crosses GBPJPY & especially EURJPY … they’re pathetic, as central bank 

HQ has stripped all the volatility out of them, and they are simply a shell of 

their former selves.

So, onto the Peso & goodbye to the majors … cya wouldn’t wanna be ya 
… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas