“Talking with markets … yea, it’s come to this!”
A couple of days ago we started trading USDMXN, and for the last two days
in a row, we come into New York trading, and USDMXN has already gone
batshit crazy in Asia & Europe on the “Dollar bid” phenomenon currently
sweeping the world, and we got 1,000+ PIP ranges, the spread doesn’t come
into reasonable range until about 7:30 AM EST, and then it’s time to literally
wipe out 1,300 PIPS of that 1,900 PIP range in a matter of less than an hour
… what’s that leave us? It’s analogous to gold starting the day in New York
with greater than $10 ranges … and almost nothing good ever comes from
that.
USDMXN is a market like a freight train … step in front of it, and it could
turn you into a grease spot quickly … you simply can’t step in front of it on
a “feeling”, cuz you need more than that. Over the last 4 days, since
Monday, USDMXN is up approximately 4,000 PIPS from the tips, and in
the process left our trading algo a mess … for the very simple reason, price
action is off the charts, and now comes the inevitable “messy” time periods
when chop takes over and charts consolidate … in other words, “a little song,
a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants” kind of trading action that is
whippy, quick, and has lost the trend for the time being. “If it doesn’t start
behaving … yea, I’m gonna try the gypsy curse”!
Not that there’s anything else out there trading “gangbusters”, cuz there
isn’t … FX majors a complete nightmare … gold its same old sick self, and
the stock indices sitting and chopping with the “Plunge Protection Team”
[PPT] at the ready for any and all declines once they’re over. Although, a
nice move in our secondary market USDCNH today, on the upside, with
some good algo buy signals earlier this morning. But outside of Peso &
Reminbi, “fugetaboutit”! Markets in general, having turned into complete
trendless bat guano, with tiny ranges, and whatever moves do come, come in
the dark, away from the major central trading zones.
Going forward, once the USDMXN spread comes into normal around 7 AM
EST, I’m going to ignore scheduled reports unless they are central bank
interest rate meetings, and inflation numbers … other than that, I don’t see
anything that affects trading to any degree that you’d notice, if nothing
happened at all.
is already “gangbusters” and the Peso is moving, even with 40 - 50 PIP
bid/offer spreads … we simply have no choice but to wait until the spread
goes normal [around 25 PIPS] before trading, and if ranges are already
“blown up”, we simply wait it out … cuz doing anything else is doing
“stupid shit”.
Literally zero algorithm buy signals today, and the reason I’m only interested
in buying USDMXN today is cuz the market is in algorithm “buy mode”
… when it goes to “sell mode”, we’ll only be interested in being short. With
today’s monster melt-up straight to the moon in Asia & Europe, followed by
a collapse down 1,300 PIPS, we’re left with a market today that has very wide
algorithm parameters to get into a long trade … meaning, it has to continue
to go “bonkers” or else we sit … and it ain’t going “bonkers” any more, as all
small rallies get snuffed quickly and we melt lower … as we tick down to the
end of our trading day at 2 PM EST, cuz that’s about the time the spread
starts to widen out, time is all that will fix this, and that means tomorrow, cuz
today on the upside is over.
So, no trades today cuz there were no high probability long positions to be
made. “And maybe, if it’s not too inconvenient for the market, maybe tomorrow
we can come in and NOT see a frickin’ 1,400 PIP range before the day has
barely started … if not, it gets the gypsy curse”!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment