“MANIPULATED MT4 market [LEFT] … CRYPTO MARKET [RIGHT]!!”
The difference between traditional financial markets traded on the MT4 / MT5
are staggering & monumental in scope COMPARED TO anything traded in crypto
on “open order book” [OOB] platforms … don’t misunderstand, there’s plenty of
“Scumbaggery & Fuckery” that goes on in crypto, with “Whales” driving the
substantial majority of it, but it’s a completely different trading environment than
anything you see from traditional market LPs … “arb scalping” is not possible in
traditional financial markets, cuz scumbag banks and/or HFTs keep it for
themselves, and you never ever will see it … on the MT4 / MT5 you can never buy
the bid or sell the offer, or ever get outside of that spread in your favor from the
LP … you are at the complete mercy of the scumbag LP to “take it or leave it”, and
oh by the way, here’s your fill with MAX FU slippage, have a nice day! … crypto is
completely different cuz it has no central authority, like central banks that favor the
top 2 or 3 world mega banks that set price for FX, or in the case of gold, the cartel
of the COMEX / LBMA / FED, and in the process manipulate & rig VIX for the banks
benefit and collective spec community disadvantage … in other words, one is
completely controlled & rigged, while the other [crypto] has many dozens of
exchanges and platforms that provide price discovery and liquidity … and that
means opportunity for price dislocations that traders can take advantage … you’ll
never see this on the MT4 cuz the bank or HFT keeps it for themselves.
Quite frankly, the LP at IQCENT does things I’ve never seen on an electronic
trading platform for crypto pairs … other CFD markets they offer that are
traditional in scope, they are no different than any other LP, and somehow and
in some way they are locked into traditional bank bid/offer schemes with an
appropriate markup, meaning they split “off market” fills with the LP … but banks
don’t do crypto, and therefore crypto is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT … I’m told by
IQCENT that their liquidity provider [LP] for crypto pairs is “Thompson Reuters”,
a “news agency” that I guess acts as a middleman for liquidity in crypto
markets … unlike Coinexx [or other MT4 / MT5 houses] that use an HFT [probably
BlackRock, Citadel, or Virtu] for bid/offer liquidity services, with either 1) big fat
juicy spreads and small commissions, 2) tiny spreads and big fat commissions,
or 3) the “variable bid/offer spread game” of bullshit oscillating slippage that
goes bat shit crazy when crypto moves even a tiny amount, thus a complete
screwing of specs where they steal too big of your profit, or add salt to the stab
wounds in your back on losses with added loss … Coinexx has opted for
“Plan 3”, and is the reason you can’t trade any crypto with them, cuz they are
thieves plain & simple.
The notable differences between IQCENT & OOB platforms [e.g., Phemex], are
that 1) IQCENT’S platform will be MORE VOLATILE IN PRICE [usually 2X - 5X+
higher in price movement up/down], in relation to moves on the OOB at Phemex
… this is cuz of the “basis” difference of the 2 platforms, and is the reason I
trade the “basis”, otherwise known as “arb scalping”, and 2) VERY FAST M1
SPIKES [UP OR DOWN, MAKES NO DIFFERENCE] WILL NOT BE REFLECTED
ON THE IQCENT PLATFORM WHEN ANY CRYPTO PAIR GOES BAT SHIT CRAZY
[BSC] … on Friday in ETHUSDT [Ethereum], this pair had 3 huge [relatively
speaking] m1 spikes, 1 up near the high of 2130 and 2 others down in the
2085 - 2081 area … and while all 3 set off stops at Phemex, from the “Whales”,
and created very illiquid conditions in terms of price and its movement over
several seconds, THE IQCENT PLATFORM NEVER MOVED IN TERMS OF
PRICE! … price started to move again when price at Phemex stabilized and
somewhat “normal” conditions returned! … the first time I saw this I WAS
SHOCKED! … and at first, my initial reaction was outrage they could do this,
but on reflection and some critical thinking, I have come to realize that this
actually prevents [most of the time] some really horrendous fills on buy & sell
stops for IQCENT’S clients … the LP has simply decided not to fill orders
under these conditions.
That’s in ETH, and for some of the smaller alt-coins, e.g., XRPUSDT [RIPPLE],
or MATICUSDT [POLYGON], when buy or sell stops get really “messy”, and
involve hundreds of ticks within an m1, when price comes back the “basis” can
get really “ugly and totally FUBAR” … now, these can be really “bigly & yuge”
PROFITABLE “basis” trades, but they can also be a frickin’ nightmare if you
have a stop in the market on the platform, and then on one of these dislocations
in price you get filled hundreds of ticks off your stop level … THIS IS THE
REASON I STRONGLY RECOMMEND NEVER TO PLACE LIMIT OR STOP
ORDERS ON THE IQCENT PLATFORM … YOU’RE SIMPLY ASKING TO GET
SCREWED!
IQCENT has upgraded their platform, and the movement in ETHUSDT specifically,
is much better than in the past … however, please know & understand that the
“basis” between Phemex & IQCENT for ETHUSDT can be between -$6 to +$6 in
terms of price … this tells me that the LP has some really “quirky” places it looks
for liquidity in order to hedge exposure, and they sure as Hell aren’t looking at
perpetual futures at Phemex, Binance, or any place else! … they’re hedging via
cash/spot, and their bid/offer quote flows from action in the perpetual futures we
see … and that’s the “basis” all of the “arbs” are using when calculating their
orders for some “risk free” money on fills should they get them … and we get
them too! … on Friday, on the way to the high, Miss Gimpy took some long
position scalp trades in ETHUSDT at IQCENT with an approximate -$6 price
UNDER PHEMEX BID … Phemex bid then goes up 60 cents, and the IQCENT BID
GOES UP $4 … BINGO!, BANGO!, BOOM!, you can have it back, thanks come
again! … who cares what happens next? … move onto the next opportunity
when it arises … and it happens so often when specs puke and panic, and a
group of them hit the liquidate sell button while the bid/offer is dropping.
But in order to take advantage, you have to be there at the quote change, you
can’t wait 3 seconds and expect the offer to still be there, cuz it won’t be, it’s
already rising! … and quite frankly with the changes the LP has made in the last
couple of weeks to prevent traders from “picking them off”, while the bid stays
the same, the offer is rapidly changing … “if you snooze, they’re gonna gut you
like a fish for dinner on your fill! … count on it.”
Throughout Thanksgiving week, I spent a lot of time analyzing IQCENT’S crypto
trading action … and while VIX is rising in ETH & BTC, it’s falling dramatically in
the heavily traded alt-coins like XRP & MATIC [SOL & DOGE haven’t been
affected as much yet], which have had pretty impressive percentage runs to the
upside in the last 5 - 10 weeks … they’ve become much more choppy, with fewer
trade opportunities with “fat” discounts to spot at Phemex, as well as some
disturbing slippage seen in bid/offer quotes … I also spent a lot of time doing
research into a better way to look for “discount setups”, cuz I’m not impressed
with the 9 period SMMA slope line for calling trades … quite frankly, IT’S TOO
SLOW!, and in a choppy environment can give too many “false positives” for
trades … so what if there’s a $3 discount under Phemex for ETH, if the price
goes down for another 7 minutes and loses $20, what good does that loss do
us? … and don’t even go there with doubling or tripling up in crypto … that’s
“stupid shit” for LOSERS!
I’m making a change that I believe is far better for finding discount trades for
“arb scalping” … ultimately, we want the “fat” discount of course, but we also
want the market [ETH, XRP, MATIC, whatever] to remain steady OR GO HIGHER
… and when that happens, that “fat” discount disappears “el quicko mucho”
with a fast upwards spike in the bid at IQCENT ON THE PLATFORM, and at that
exact moment I’m giving it back to ‘em with the bid rising … mission
accomplished! … this gets accomplished through FOMO & MOMO on the part
of the spec community of traders who are always in panic mode … but that
discount can stay there as well as the market moves lower, or even get FATTER!
… now what? … add to losers in crypto and you’ll be taking orders at Micky D’s
and asking if somebody wants large fries with those chicken nuggets … we
don’t care about the LEVEL OF PRICE, we care about FOMO & MOMO UP, so
specs as a group are buying, cuz they’ll be getting what I got … and most of the
time that first burst is one of the best, with the other being the top of a move,
but since I don’t have a crystal ball I can’t wait nor know where that top is … in
other words, “I’m trading the “basis” with FOMO & MOMO being the “wind at
my back” supporting my position and moving price higher by the LP … and
there are just too many instances where the 9 period SMMA fails to give us
adequate information about FOMO & MOMO.
I’m replacing the 9 period SMMA with 2 indicators … on the m1, 1) 17 period
TEMA [Triple Exponential Moving Average], and 2) 9 period, close, EMA
… [Note: these are almost identical to the “zero lag” MAs, but TEMA & EMA are
in the library of indicators on the PHEMEX platform for charting] … directly
below, from today in ETHUSDT, the white line is the TEMA, and the yellow line
is the EMA.
click on chart to enlarge
We want to do LONG “arb scalps”, WHEN THE APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT IS
PRESENT, when WHITE IS ABOVE YELLOW … when WHITE IS BELOW YELLOW,
leave the trade alone, you don’t want to get “trapped” in “one hit M1 wonders”
and now price is going lower again and specs are selling, meaning the discount
is probably staying the same or getting lower under Phemex … neither scenario
is good for your position … for crypto, the crossing of the lines doesn’t have any
particular meaning in terms of the concept of price, simply cuz without knowing
where the “basis” is, you could be buying the IQCENT price at +$3 in ETH over
Phemex price at the crossover, and by the time it tops out it’s -$3 UNDER
Phemex price … price moves $5 at Phemex and you lose $1? … No, what matters
is the “basis”! … this will keep your ass out of trouble! … and if by chance you
get caught at one of the turns, liquidate, take the small loss and reload! … in any
4 - 5+ hour session of trading, you’re gonna easily get 20+ trades in a pair like
BTC or ETH … I prefer ETH, but that’s me … so far SOL & DOGE are doing well,
maintaining VIX and price movement … from what I’ve been able to judge so far,
the ETHUSDT “basis” range to Phemex appears to be -$6 UNDER to about +$5
OVER … BUY DISCOUNTS SELL PREMIUMS!
This also begs another question … how effective is this for gold on the MT4?
… crypto is too crazy for traditional indicators and parameters … they get
blown through like a chainsaw going through a stick of soft butter!, only to
coming roaring back and make you look stupid … traditional markets like FX
and gold aren’t fairing much better, but for wholly different reasons
… 1) traditional markets don’t “trade” anymore … they sit and die and then
explode for 1 - 3 hours [often times shorter] and then die again … this is by
manipulator design, and it leaves a trader to wonder on a buy signal whether or
not it’s legit to take or is it just to trap me? … even “zero lag” indicators like the
stochastic, can easily go overbought way before the up move ends, and if the
price slows down, the “zero lag” MAs can go soft and choppy … with the TEMA
& EMA lines, what you’re really attempting to measure is FOMO & MOMO flows,
which is at the heart of bank order flow based on spec activity … if the bank is
positioned correctly, they’ll shove price to get the specs to pay the most or sell
cheaply, whichever profits them, and most often it lasts at least 5 - 10 minutes at
a minimum … and then do it again & again repeatedly.
If you’re part of the spec crowd, you’re screwed! … bottom line is that they
appear to work beautifully with markets that don’t trade based on spec
psychological tendencies, but more on the bank manipulated order flow that
most often creates failed double bottoms in some capacity off bottoms … not
always, but the majority of the time … this takes some m1 time to accomplish,
and it gives a good readout of FOMO & MOMO when it then occurs … that’s
usually, by looking at the MT4 m1 candlestick, when TEMA crosses over EMA
and price rises … gold is infamous for making “complicated” lows that trap
that last long position holdout or the last seller into the market, then reverses
and the bullion banks start squeezing cashews! … so yea, it appears to be a
simpler and just as effective in pinpointing buying opportunities as the
scalping algorithm, especially when any of these traditional markets go either
straight up or straight down … IMHO, it simply does a better job of mapping /
modeling FOMO & MOMO spec behavior! … [TEMA mq4 code can be found over
in “Download Links”]
Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values for selected
markets.
click on table to enlarge
Onto the week! … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of
sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
