CRUDE OIL ONLY APPEARS TO BE STUCK IN MUD

 

“Wait! … Wut!!?”

Looking at the daily charts for crude, it appears it’s stuck in mud, going nowhere,

doing nothing, and the world has bigger fish to fry at the moment … however, a

look down into the trading stats shows volume in WTI ranges between 1 - 1.5

million contracts per day, with the micro contract doing 25,000 - 30,000 contracts

per day [one tenth the size] … a glance at the New York session 20 Day Range

MA shows an average range per day at $2.07 this week … can this really be

categorized as “dead”? … well, as history in this market shows, if this is dead,

what’s it really like most of the time? … more VIX than most can handle.

Oil inventories at 10:30 AM EST, the weekly spin of the roulette wheel on

Wednesdays, although inventories has lost some of its appeal for moving the

market … still, when you least expect it, there it is!

And, there it was! … big draw versus expectations, and away we go … I don’t

know what it was that I had expectations today for oil, but hanging around

multi-month lows with stops below 67, I thought the market would make a run

for them … they didn’t, and the inventories report gave fodder to cover

aggressively those who were short, as well as tripping off buy signals … but

what surprised me today was the lack of “trading” … once the inventories

number came out, it was straight up with no corrective activity to speak of, but

only mild sideways action, and then more gains … Hell, if I wanted this, I’d stay

in FX! … I’m prone to think of this as “”one off” action, simply cuz probabilities

being what they are, everything happens to one degree or another.

I would recommend those following and/or trading oil, to go to netdania,com/oil

and set up an m3 chart, with HULL period 13, and the Ehlers Fisher Transform

period 10 … pick whatever colors you want obviously, but treat oil as you would

a crypto pair …, i.e., use the m1 on the MT4 with the special trading algorithm,

and use the m3 at Netdania for perspective … signup at NetDania is free, and

you’ll notice the same patterns as in Bitcoin, but only in oil … be cognizant of

the formations I wrote about yesterday for Bitcoin … TRADE IN THE DIRECTION

OF THE PANIC! … although here in oil, most of the time, you don’t see panic

conditions, but you will see what we saw today … i.e., good move either

UP / DOWN that can be traded! … directly below, the m3 in WTI Crude Oil from

today with the 2 indicators.

click on chart to enlarge

Today saw oil blow through its session 20 Day Range MA by quite a bit … as such,

it has to come back down on corrective activity to an area that puts it back to

normal in the current range … that translate into a move back down to the 69 area,

and up & until we see that, I don’t take any buy signals from the algorithm cuz the

probability of the range getting further extended is small … very small, like in low

single digits … that’s not to say it can’t happen, just that it’s not probable … and

quite frankly, I have no desire to pee into the wind and expect not to get hit

… therefore, NO trades for the PAMM today, we’ll pick up oil tomorrow … quite

frankly, I was pleasantly surprised that the Coinexx oil LP kept the spread at 1 - 2

cents during the inventories report, and thereafter … about time they did

something right, but I’ll give them credit where credit is due … and while there

was too much straight shot activity, it’s activity nonetheless … I think we’ll do

OK here in this space going forward … so far, I like what I see.

And in case people wonder why I’ve always been, and always will be, a short

term trader leaning more to the scalper mode than day trading, it’s cuz it

minimizes risk while allowing me to profit … all I need is VIX and a decent range

with tight spreads … I bring this up, cuz it seems appropriate in light of the

following article posted on ZH a little while ago, the link directly below … “exactly

who is eating whose lunch?”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-trader-andurand-losing-more-50-worst-

year-ever

And here’s the “money shot” from the article … pic directly below.

“All of those gains in 2020 - 2022 [that’s 3 years for you Biden voters], don’t

mean Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat when you then go tapioca to the tune of -50%+”

… unless you’re a complete idiot who does “Stupid Shit” CONSISTENTLY, this

can’t ever happen to a scalper … especially one who makes a living from

trading … Dear Pierre: “don’t confuse brains with a bull market!

… you’re welcome!”

Over in crypto @IQCENT, again we see the ONLY MARKET TRADING THAT

TRULY “TRADES”! … headed into the New York afternoon, and a pretty tame

approximate $400 range since about 6 AM EST … but inside that range some

really good UP / DOWN trading action, with the best trading conditions known

to man! … taking what I said yesterday and applying it to today’s action, and

there’s absolutely no way you lose in this market … PANIC UP/DOWN ALL THE

TIME, SO SIMPLY PLAY IT! … TRADE THE PANIC IN THE DIRECTION OF THE

PANIC … WHEN IT STALLS LIQUIDATE … RINSE, REPEAT, PICK THE $$$ UP

OFF THE FLOOR! … DO NOT … I REPEAT, DO NOT! … ATTEMPT TO PICK TOPS

& BOTTOMS IN THIS MARKET CUZ IF YOU DO THEY CARRY YOUR ACCOUNT

OUT TOES UP WITH A SHEET OVER ITS HEAD!

A shipload of BTC trades today via algorithm buy signals AND proper PANIC

CONDITIONS ON THE M3 HEADING HIGHER … “The Syndicate” UP

APPROXIMATELY 0.8% … given the somewhat lackluster range, I’ll take it for

participants, even though it should have been slightly better … hindsight is

always 20/20, and if there’s ever a market to keep one humble, it’s Bitcoin

… onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas