Merry Christmas everybody, especially those digging out of the “bomb cyclone”
hitting the U.S. … why even myself, I’m a little chilly this morning down here in
the Caribbean, where currently it’s about 76 °F … hang on while I put my light
hoodie on, and raise my clenched fist into the air in show of solidarity, while
sipping my raspberry latte and watching the waves lovingly kiss the beach in
front of me … I’ve got my “Baby it’s cold outside” sympathy ribbon proudly
attached to my hoodie so everyone knows I’m down with the struggle.
And while I bravely carry on down here, wondering if we can hit 80 °F today, and
I have to wear my hoodie all day while clutching my pearls, life goes on … later in
the day, the Costanza family comes over for Festivus celebrations, dinner, and
the airing of grievances … should be a fun packed day!
Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.
Note that I’ve added gold [XAUUSD] in the New York session, so all 3 of our
markets [gold, DOW30, & WTI Crude Oil] have data for both daily and New York
sessions [as I have defined them in the notes] … and as you can clearly see,
unless there is something specifically in the news to move them in the Asian
session and early Europe, a substantial portion of the day’s range most often
occurs during New York trading [gold 78%, DOW30 86%, and WTI Crude Oil 86%]
… these percentages are a tad high cuz of Holiday periods stretching from
Thanksgiving to New Years, and I wouldn’t expect them to remain this high once
we get into the new year … closer to 70% - 75% is more like the norm … even so,
over time these 3 markets have shown a remarkable resiliency to remain volatile
… the key factor in trading them for the PAMM continues to be the day-to-day
variable spread placed upon us by scumbag, thieving LP’s … of the 3 markets,
gold is the most consistent, followed by DOW30, and then WTI Crude Oil … and
lest anybody thinks I’m picking on poor “SLIPPAGE FX” [a/k/a Coiness + Turnkey],
I’m not cuz the spreads for these 3 markets are pretty much industry norms if you
do your homework … granted, some houses may have a “loss leader” and have
a quotable spread lower, but you ain’t getting any bargains there cuz they’ll make
up for that by having bid/offer quotes that jump around even worse than houses
that you think are terrible … bottom line is you’re gonna pay the industry norm
one way or the other.
What has pissed me off to no end in these higher than average volatile markets in
2022, has been 1) the INCONSISTENCY OF THE VIX STRUCTURE during the New
York trading day, where one day it’s off the charts, and the next 4 days it sucks
… and that means spikes from Hell, both up & down out of nowhere, where you
think it means what it doesn’t … namely, here we go and market action improves
… instead, after blowing stops out, it dies … and 2) straight shot market runs both
up & down with ZERO corrective activity … and once the moves are over, you
don’t want any part of the corrective activity cuz there won’t be any continuation
of the move.
Both of these go to the very heart of creating and developing a proper trading
algorithm, but they both demand criteria that work against each other! … you
develop it for volatility, and when the market dies, then what? … you develop it for
far slower VIX, and then it goes on a tear, now what? … up ‘til now I’ve been
content to “wait the slow periods out” … problem here, is that they’re happening
with increased frequency versus historical norms, so that even when conditions
improve, you either don’t want to trade a signal or are hesitant to make the trade
cuz you know what happens when it dies down to a trickle … in other words, they
got you coming and going and right where they want you.
The trading algorithm posted over in “Download Links”, does a fantastic job of
nailing price behavior WHEN VIX IS CONSISTENT AND REMAINS ELEVATED
… when it doesn’t, the false positives go north exponentially, and you find
yourself behind losing trades and “chop” … what to do Skippy, what to do?
Over the past weeks and months I’ve been addressing this problem, and through
various code adjustments and other hocus pocus tricks of the trade, as well as
getting small range days mixed in with big range days so I can see both sides of
the VIX coin, from Thanksgiving onward to present day, I think I got the solution
… I fortunately had “Miss Gimpy” test it out on Friday in gold, on a day that saw
the range for the day 50% less than its 20 Day Range MA, as well as very subpar
in the New York session … she had a very profitable day … back testing both
crude oil and DOW30 for the day afterwards yielded good results as well … if you
look, on Friday all of their respective charts were correlating rather well … that of
course doesn’t always hold up, but given the lack of news flow they correlated
well most of the day.
Bottom line is I’ll be using this newer version [version 2.0] of the trading
algorithm come tomorrow or Tuesday, and going forward … take note of the
results … if I like what I see, and I think I most assuredly will, I’ll make the
appropriate revisions in the manual and repost it … onto the week at hand
… Merry Christmas everybody!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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