Welp. Holiday markets are upon us once again … even crude oil moves more in
the late Asian session today than in New York … cue the broken record … “WTF,
do I have to move to frickin’ Thailand to get decent trading action, or what?” … but
it’s not just crude that’s dead, but everything else as well, although the Asian
session had some nice movement to the upside late in the day [of course it did!]
… now in New York, crude not even capable of having a “Trading Ratio” [TR]
above 3 … and I doubt the oil inventories report will change any of that, coming at
10:30 AM EST. … a big draw popped crude for a minute or two, but that got faded
quickly, and we’re back in the mud we’ve been in for hours in the mid to upper
77’s, with quick trips to 78 that can’t last … in other words, about a 50 cent range
of a nothingburger … just isn’t enough volume or interest to sustain either breaks
or rallies long enough to matter for price … up a little, down a little ain’t gonna get
it done in crude, simply cuz we got a higher spread wall to climb.
Now, none of this means crude can’t explode at any moment, cuz it can, so it
bares watching, just that for now it can’t get going anywhere … I’ve made this
mistake before with crude, giving up on it too early, only to come back later and
regret that decision … right now, here in the New York afternoon, it’s a “tickle me
Elmo” kind of situation … every time they break it, they walk it back higher inch
by inch … then it’s rinse and repeat, with the red spikes down a particular problem
in thin conditions … nobody can feel comfortable with any kind of position, as
most of the volume in the oil trade is absent … range for the last 5 -6 hours, now
about 75 cents, which is pathetic … TR of about 2.5 not conducive for a trade
… for now the 78 level has been breached to the upside, but the real question is
can it stay above that level going into the close?
We’ve hit the 2 PM EST time frame, and although crude is still adobe $78, this
attempted breakout is so dubious and done on such low volume and interest in
trading in general, I’m not at all confident it means anything … crude isn’t a
market you hang around in for hours so it can go up 20 dents or so … too many
bad things can happen to you for such skimpy returns … I imagine cuz the
“Stock Bellies” are higher today, it might have something to do with crude being
higher … on the other hand FX is a drag as the dollar is generally slightly higher
… in any event, nobody seemed to give a shit about oil today except in the last
hour or two in the Asian session [also pre Europe as well] … take that away,
and we wouldn’t even have a $1 range … go figure.
Basically, we start crude oil trading with Coinexx, which in the past when I traded
there wasn’t too bad … Turnkey is another story altogether, as those idiots could
never seem to get LP’s that could do the job … as readers remember, right before
the merger, I had an oil trade at Turnkey that was atrocious … I don’t ever
remember getting ripped like that at Coinexx when I traded there a few years ago
in oil, so we’ll see … their oil spreads are about the industry norms, and outside
of normal spikes on support / resistance breaks, news items, and general bullshit
from the likes of Vlad & crew and OPEC+ thugs, I don’t see anything out of the
ordinary when it comes to the flow of trading … I sure as Hell hope I’m right, cuz
oil is one of the great markets left that is outside of the FED’s CNTRL-P machine,
and all of the QE bullshit that goes on with the FED and scumbag banks … oil
moves, and moves well … algorithm signals, both buy & sell are excellent when it
moves, but like any market, when things go tapioca and slow down to a crawl,
trading oil gets extremely treacherous … in other words, when the TR goes South,
leave it alone.
It’s easy to look back in retrospect … I should have never left oil to begin with once
I became interested in it from a trading perspective … but then again there was
Turnkey and all the bullshit there, so it is what it was … but now? … nope cuz I’m
in it to win it!… most of the year in oil has been fantastic, and of course when Vlad
invaded Ukraine it went bat shit crazy [BSC] … well, we all live and learn, even old
dogs like me … looking forward to 2023, I can’t see any other market outperforming
oil on a trading basis, and if China comes back online from the COVID hoax
lockdowns, oil will explode higher as Pacific Rim economies will gear up once
again and demand for oil will move sharply higher … all in all it should be an
interesting and very profitable year … no trades today for the PAMM due to very
lackluster trading conditions … one of the poorest days I’ve seen in oil in a long
while, but again it’s a Holiday week, so not entirely unexpected … onto tomorrow,
and we'll see if conditions can improve some for some oil trades via algorithm
signals.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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