The POLS are panicking … winter is approaching, somebody [probably the U.S.
via the CIA] sabotaged both NordStream gas pipelines [“remember, “Taliban Joe”
said he would do this back in January if Vlad invaded Ukraine … don’t believe
me, go look it up!”], Germany today offering 200 billion Euros for energy bills, the
U.K. telling the IMF to go pound [no pun intended] sand over UK tax cut proposals,
and of course Idiot Joe Biden asking where the dead Congresswoman is and why
isn’t she in the room! … as much “comedy gold” in one day any group of markets
could handle without breaking.
Crude oil not doing much today … up in Asia & Europe, down some in U.S.
trading with the day’s range somewhat muted, coming in around $2.50 and off
significantly from its 20 Day Range MA … still early yet, so anything can still
happen, here at the London Fix, but at least so far not very volatile from a range
perspective … that’s not to say trading action is muted, cuz it ain’t … the
“Trading Ratio” [TR] = approximately 6 via a 3 cent spread, so there’s
opportunity here via the trading algorithm, and once again the word “reversal”
enters the lexicon when speaking of crude … this stuff is plenty dangerous
even with subdued ranges, simply cuz anything can and does happen
frequently.
It is extremely important to note and understand when using the crude oil
trading algorithm, that the 2 VIDYA lines do NOT simply represent EMA’s of
different periods … they represent 2 RELATIVE VIX DYNAMICS, one of a normal
nature and scope, and the other faster & shorter … cuz what we’re interest in is
THE CHANGE IN VIX OF THE FAST VIDYA RELATIVE TO THE NORMAL VIDYA
… cuz this is where VIX turns and markets subsequently move with a high
probability in our profit direction … so it’s not so much the movement of price as
it is the rapid and sudden change in VIX that pinpoints the spot where buy fuel
should and most often does show up … and when the public catches on seconds
or a few minutes later, their buying fuels price gains and allow us to liquidate on
the spikes higher … and of course, flip the script if you’re interested in being
short.
The critical key for the crude oil algorithm is very good to excellent volatility
… it doesn’t have to be bat shit crazy [BSC], and most often that condition
begets higher spreads and bigger slippage, so I’m not at all sure anyone really
wants that … just simply a good volatile market that moves … and that describes
crude oil and Natty Gas … and btw, any other market that becomes similarly
volatile, it will work equally well.
Here are a few tips for trading success … 1) if the slower VIDYA line [red / lime,
23 period, 7 period smoothing, median price] IS EXTREMELY SLOPED
POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY, don’t fade it with a signal from the fast VIDYA
[plum / yellow, 8 period, 3 period smoothing, median price] … 2) corrective
activity against the days major trend is critical, so if you only get a time
correction and not price, OR get a “one hit wonder spike” and then it resumes
the move, I would avoid these signals … 3) avoid buy [sell] signals that are to far
away from the bottom [top] in terms of price, just to get to the signal … in crude,
spike bottoms that come up fast, and you find yourself getting a buy signal
[fast VIDYA turning from yellow to plum] more than 10 or 15+ cents from the
bottom, usually indicate too much buy fuel has been spent to get to the signal.
And 4) although MFI gives us what “dumb money” is doing, it is not a trade
signal … rather, view the oscillator as a probability parameter of loss ON A
SHORT TERM TRADE, if you buy or stay long ABOVE 80, or if you sell or stay
short BELOW 20 … even a broken clock is right twice a day, so dumb money is
right about market movement some times … using it as a trade entry signal will
get you into some big trouble … however, using it as a tool to liquidate is a
different story, cuz while opportunity is infinite, capital is finite!
Multiple algorithm buy signals today in crude oil … TURNKEY PAMM UP A HAIR
SHORT OF 0.1% … I would say today had its share of sloppy action, but over the
course of hours, crude oil will have some stunningly fantastic buy signals … as
long as the spread stays decent [and it did], and volatility stays elevated [not
necessarily BSC], this is as good as it gets for a trading market … and while
yesterday saw straight up action, today is more of a “trading” up / down kind of
affair that we see the vast majority of the time in crude … throw in a higher range
like we normally see, and you have an ideal market when it acts like its supposed
to … pay attention to the tips I gave above, and crude will deliver … Natty Gas
will to, for those wanting a market that is consistently more volatile than crude oil.
So the PAMM yacht is out of the harbor, we’ve set sail, things are “GO!”, and today
was our first real day trading the algorithm in crude … when conditions are the
way they are supposed to be, you’d be hard pressed to find a better market to
trade … FX has become a manipulative mess, with each passing day seeing
things we haven’t seen in decades … it will lead to complete chaos & fiat collapse,
and we are seeing the manifestations of that taking place … onto tomorrow!
OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and
my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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