IT’S FRIDAY AND NOBODY CARES … AGAIN

“Friday crude oil trading … RIP!”

It turns out, Vlad was behaving today in his “annexation speech” of Ukraine

provinces into Russia “forever” … no talk of nuclear war or an escalation in the

current fighting, at least in so much as it would shake up oil traders … that led

to some disappointment among oil bulls, that the world wouldn’t end just yet,

and time to get out of some long positions … add to that, it’s end of month, end

of quarter, and OPEC+ meets next week, for what is generally expected to be

production cuts in the 1 million barrel range … take all of that and spread it out

on the financial Ouija board and you got today … ughhhhhhh!

Looking at the day’s range, and it’s biz as usual, coming in at a respectable $3.34

[so far], but since about 8 AM EST, to now slightly after 2 PM EST [about 6 hours],

it’s about $1.60 from the tips, and a whole lot less from tradeable prices … so

while the Asian session gets its moves, the U.S. session gets mostly

Mr. Jack Squat … throw in some of that yummy “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD]

bullshit on spike trips to either tip, and if you’re not careful this uneventful day

could turn into one Helluva clusterfark of losses … and as if we needed it, even

most of the buy signals in crude today were “red flag” affairs I wrote about

yesterday, creating an environment today that saw way too many

“false positives” for my blood … and, that’s what happens when VIX comes in

and you don't get the necessary volatility in crude you expect or need … quite

frankly, it’s Friday and nobody gives a shit, now that we aren’t gonna have

nuclear war over the weekend! … thanks Vlad! [I think]

Quite frankly, I’m a little surprised we got a day like this … didn’t see this

funeral procession hitting today … after that 3 minute “Thelma & Louise” cliff

dive right before the NYSE open, followed by a “V” shaped bottom, the rest of

the day has been Midnight at the nursing home … plenty of sleep and not a whole

lot of action anywhere … the crude oil trading algorithm is not designed to catch

or capture “V” bottoms, so that bottom never gave us a buy signal … taking that

cliff dive away, and the 6 hour range so far is about $1.50, and not something to

get overly excited about.

No trading today for the PAMM in crude oil … as I said, didn’t think I’d be writing

those words again so soon … it is what it is, though, and if it doesn’t wanna play

ball, all that’s left is heartburn for us … “Stock Bellies”, RE the “Spoos”

threatening the 3600 level, as “Stonks” sink lower still, and this has a definite

“risk off” stench to it crude finds hard to ignore for a rally … just another “fly in

the ointment” for today’s trade.

All in all, we just need better action, and we’ll get that next week … blog update

on Sunday … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of 

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

SEND IN THE CLOWNS

 

“Meet your lovely & gracious liquidity provider [LP]!”

The POLS are panicking … winter is approaching, somebody [probably the U.S.

via the CIA] sabotaged both NordStream gas pipelines [“remember, “Taliban Joe”

said he would do this back in January if Vlad invaded Ukraine … don’t believe

me, go look it up!”], Germany today offering 200 billion Euros for energy bills, the

U.K. telling the IMF to go pound [no pun intended] sand over UK tax cut proposals,

and of course Idiot Joe Biden asking where the dead Congresswoman is and why

isn’t she in the room! … as much “comedy gold” in one day any group of markets

could handle without breaking.

Crude oil not doing much today … up in Asia & Europe, down some in U.S.

trading with the day’s range somewhat muted, coming in around $2.50 and off

significantly from its 20 Day Range MA … still early yet, so anything can still

happen, here at the London Fix, but at least so far not very volatile from a range

perspective … that’s not to say trading action is muted, cuz it ain’t … the

“Trading Ratio” [TR] = approximately 6 via a 3 cent spread, so there’s

opportunity here via the trading algorithm, and once again the word “reversal”

enters the lexicon when speaking of crude … this stuff is plenty dangerous

even with subdued ranges, simply cuz anything can and does happen

frequently.

It is extremely important to note and understand when using the crude oil

trading algorithm, that the 2 VIDYA lines do NOT simply represent EMA’s of

different periods … they represent 2 RELATIVE VIX DYNAMICS, one of a normal

nature and scope, and the other faster & shorter … cuz what we’re interest in is

THE CHANGE IN VIX OF THE FAST VIDYA RELATIVE TO THE NORMAL VIDYA

… cuz this is where VIX turns and markets subsequently move with a high

probability in our profit direction … so it’s not so much the movement of price as

it is the rapid and sudden change in VIX that pinpoints the spot where buy fuel

should and most often does show up … and when the public catches on seconds

or a few minutes later, their buying fuels price gains and allow us to liquidate on

the spikes higher … and of course, flip the script if you’re interested in being

short.

The critical key for the crude oil algorithm is very good to excellent volatility

… it doesn’t have to be bat shit crazy [BSC], and most often that condition

begets higher spreads and bigger slippage, so I’m not at all sure anyone really

wants that … just simply a good volatile market that moves … and that describes

crude oil and Natty Gas … and btw, any other market that becomes similarly

volatile, it will work equally well.

Here are a few tips for trading success … 1) if the slower VIDYA line [red / lime,

23 period, 7 period smoothing, median price] IS EXTREMELY SLOPED

POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY, don’t fade it with a signal from the fast VIDYA

[plum / yellow, 8 period, 3 period smoothing, median price] … 2) corrective

activity against the days major trend is critical, so if you only get a time

correction and not price, OR get a “one hit wonder spike” and then it resumes

the move, I would avoid these signals … 3) avoid buy [sell] signals that are to far

away from the bottom [top] in terms of price, just to get to the signal … in crude,

spike bottoms that come up fast, and you find yourself getting a buy signal

[fast VIDYA turning from yellow to plum] more than 10 or 15+ cents from the

bottom, usually indicate too much buy fuel has been spent to get to the signal. 

And 4) although MFI gives us what “dumb money” is doing, it is not a trade

signal … rather, view the oscillator as a probability parameter of loss ON A

SHORT TERM TRADE, if you buy or stay long ABOVE 80, or if you sell or stay

short BELOW 20 … even a broken clock is right twice a day, so dumb money is

right about market movement some times … using it as a trade entry signal will

get you into some big trouble … however, using it as a tool to liquidate is a

different story, cuz while opportunity is infinite, capital is finite!

Multiple algorithm buy signals today in crude oil … TURNKEY PAMM UP A HAIR

SHORT OF 0.1% … I would say today had its share of sloppy action, but over the

course of hours, crude oil will have some stunningly fantastic buy signals … as

long as the spread stays decent [and it did], and volatility stays elevated [not

necessarily BSC], this is as good as it gets for a trading market … and while

yesterday saw straight up action, today is more of a “trading” up / down kind of

affair that we see the vast majority of the time in crude … throw in a higher range

like we normally see, and you have an ideal market when it acts like its supposed

to … pay attention to the tips I gave above, and crude will deliver … Natty Gas

will to, for those wanting a market that is consistently more volatile than crude oil.

So the PAMM yacht is out of the harbor, we’ve set sail, things are “GO!”, and today

was our first real day trading the algorithm in crude … when conditions are the

way they are supposed to be, you’d be hard pressed to find a better market to

trade … FX has become a manipulative mess, with each passing day seeing

things we haven’t seen in decades … it will lead to complete chaos & fiat collapse,

and we are seeing the manifestations of that taking place … onto tomorrow!

OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎, and

my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

CENTRAL BANKS KILLING SPECS AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY

 

“A central banker’s central banker! … it’s good to have the flying monkeys!”

Why not? … the BOE punts and welcomes back QE INFINITY … Specs in Cable

get obliterated when the BOE comes in and buys Gilts, and then tanks one

minute later … FX a complete nuthouse, with Cable leading the way.

Crude oil slow to start the day, but has shot higher on a draw in oil inventories

and rallies in FX and “Stock Bellies” … good range today in crude, but signals

overshadowed by straight line shots higher in WTI.

So far today, the spread & latency in crude at Turnkey is acceptable, so no issues

there … the big news is the BOE abandoning QT and going back to money

printing … the “Pivot” is here!, and hence the rallies in risk assets, oil included.

Not very many buy signals in crude today, especially after the oil inventories

report at 10:30 AM EST … straight up the wall on multiple occasions hampered

any corrective activity, and once we blew past the 20 Day Range MA by about 20%,

algorithm rules prevent long positions until we get a decent sized correction that

takes us down about 25% - 30% of the range … and that never came close.

One algorithm buy signal in crude today … TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … we

start with small volume and work up, cuz it allows me to gauge how the scumbag

LP’s are filling orders … entry kinda sucked, but liquidation was OK, so it evens

out some … latency could have been better, but not a major issue … volumes will

increase, and I like the way crude oil trades … as long as Turnkey has an

acceptable spread, and doesn’t get blown up, we will do well here in this market

… crude doesn’t usually go straight up or straight down, but rather has plenty of

corrective activity … not today, though, as risk asset markets rallied smartly

… going forward, this will be the PAMM’s primary market … some of our buy

signals got blown through rather violently, so I couldn’t take those without

suffering major slippage … but overall. it has everything we want and need, but

not the things that are negatively affecting FX pairs … VIX is among the best out

there, with only Natty Gas being more consistently volatile … unfortunately, we

do run into days where news has an undue influence on price to make it go

straight up or down … today’s BOE “Pivot” back to QE, and then the oil

inventories report [10:30 AM EST every Wednesday morning] provided the

impetus for buying … onto tomorrow.   

OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎, and

my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

INCONSISTENT VIX IS THE STORYLINE [EXCLUDING CRUDE]

 

“When VIX is so inconsistent you’re thinking about working at the circus!”

Unreal … what else is there to say? … VIX one day so bat shit crazy [BSC] you

can’t even measure it, it’s so high … the next day it’s so low, it’s barely above

ZERO … events flying by we’ve not seen in decades! … ho hum … spreads

blown out at random, and slippage increased to not allow traders to take short

term profits under 5 PIPS, without wondering whether or not you’re gonna get

hosed … then we get the 40 - 50 PIP range in 8+ hours, where spikes from Hell

[UP & DOWN] are all over the place, and bid/offer quotes can be literally

anywhere within 1 second of each other … and through it all, not a single

advantage for us as traders, and every bit the avalanche of advantages for the

scumbag bank LP. 

Some frickin’ deal isn’t it? … and today couldn’t be more 180 from yesterday if

you scripted it … and as an added bonus, since there is ZIP, ZILCH, ZERO, &

NADA for liquidity & volume in FX, and everything of significance from a volume

perspective is being front run by scumbag banks via their offshore ILLEGAL

prop accounts, the entire market structure is nothing but spikes from Hell

followed by “crickets”, until the next time … we’ve had a literal ton of buy signals

in Cable, and every single “Hoover Dam” one of them blown through by spikes to

the upside, where if you click the buy button, you’re gonna get filled at the top

wherever that finally happens to be … then when the order is screwed, it’s back

down at the speed of light … quite frankly, this can’t be traded in its present form

without a terrible reward / risk ratio nobody would accept unless they’re nuts.

Meanwhile, crude can’t hit, or even come close to its 20 Day Range MA, and the

trading action is anything but stellar … early on in Europe, barely acceptable is

more like it, but with a high relative spread to other markets, barely acceptable

isn’t gonna cut the mustard … it’s early yet, a long way to go, but so far

disappointing [gee, that never happens] … I’d like to see better ranges and

trading action in the European morning than what we’re seeing … more on crude

later … USDJPY is simply a joke … “crawl, crawl, crawl, WHAP!, here’s your fill

… enjoy … now go back to sleep … and what we’re left with is EURUSD, which

although not as bat shit crazy [BSC] as Cable, its VIX CONSISTENCY is one

Helluva lot better than Cable’s … and at the end of the discussion, everything

hinges around VIX CONSISTENCY, cuz it’s what you need to know in order to

properly trade a market … it simply does us no good in any FX pair whatsoever

to see down 500 PIPS, UP 600 PIPS, then DOWN 200 PIPS, in about 4 -5 hours,

then the next day we can’t get Cable to move 25 PIPS from a median price over 8+

hours to save its STINKIN’ LIFE! … until of course Europe closes and the poker

game continues with JPM & Squid, and rates suddenly rise straight up the wall

… somebody enlighten me, how the FRICK do you trade that!? … EASY PEEZEE:

“you can’t!”

The big problem with today’s trade, and it surfaced in multiple markets [not crude

though], is the “dead cat bounce” effect right out of the gate with the

Chuckleheads & Mrs. Watanabe & Gal Pals in the Asian session … and this early

session group of rallies has a very high probability of not being sustained … so

what happens? … it stays elevated all frickin’ day AND WON’T BREAK until AFTER

THE EUROPEAN CLOSE … well, isn’t that convenient? … and natch, with the

Dumbo Europeans out of the picture, rates can rise to near 4% on the 10 YR.

Treasury, and here we go lower … LOWER that should have happened much,

much earlier … manipulated much?

I set out today looking specifically at crude oil, and while lately the daily ranges

have come in some, it’s still between $3.75 - $4, which ain’t chopped liver by any

means … as I have stated many times, the critical key to crude is what kind of

spread are you getting, with most houses being absolute crap … Turnkey has

had their moments of infamous glory, but on their VPS server, the spread & latency

is about as good as it gets … until today that is, but it was simply the feed leaking

from the regular MT4 over into the VPS … and that technical problem getting fixed

took all day, right into NOON EST in New York … so while there were some

“muy bueno” algorithm signals in crude, we couldn’t take any of ‘em unless I

wanted to pay Vito Corleone an extra 2 or 3 cents a barrel PLUS SLIPPAGE

… thanks Vito, I’ll wait for the IT fix on the server … can I make a college football

bet in the meantime? … and for the record, crude was no “great shakes” today,

putting in a range that was about 25% lower than its 20 Day Range MA, so it’s

not like we missed the crude oil Olympics or something in terms of price

movement … and while unfortunate, it got fixed and things are back to normal

… shit happens and I can’t blame everything on Turnkey.

The lesson here I think is obvious … even when crude is less than normal, it’s

still better than the other shit infecting the MT4 and subject to bank manipulation

cuz they are all backed by central bank QE CNTRL-P machines … can’t deliver or

produce a barrel of crude oil with QE … largest physical commodity market the

world over, where EVERY COUNTRY USES IT AND IS INTERESTED IN ITS PRICE

… can’t say that about FX.

I’m trying to keep a “bright face” on things, so our PAMM yacht is out of the

harbor, but today we had some issues with port and starboard engines and some

main sails … had to get them fixed … they eventually were, so we’re sitting here at

dusk ready to hit the ocean voyage at dawn tomorrow to pick up our EXXON

VALDEZ tanker filled with cash … when there are issues, you got no choice but to

get them fixed cuz it’s in your best interests … this is no different, although it’s not

like I had a choice in the matter … either give Vito extra “vig” or wait … Vito ain’t

getting extra “vig” … one day does not matter, so it’s onto tomorrow for crude!

… now that we’re back live on the VPS server, the spread is 2 cents with an

occasional 3 cents on the fringe … RT commissions are about 0.15 cents per

barrel, so not an issue at all … here at mid afternoon, crude has a $3.04 range,

and with a 2 cent spread, the “Trading Ratio at the London Fix = 8 … a 3 cent

spread would = 5.2.

OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas