No question, “Stock Bellies” have hit a “rough patch” on the way to BTFD heaven
… and while the “88/6/6” trading paradigm still is in force, the back “6” is doing
some catch up work to maintain this ratio … Spicoli can “blah blah, yada yada”
all he wants, it ain’t gonna change the fact that traders believe “sooner” rather
than later the FED caves and goes back to QE INFINITY … cuz quite frankly, given
the backdrop of the U.S. national debt & borrowing binges, without NIRP [or close
to it], the U.S. goes broke … high rates ain’t in the cards … and so what we got
now is a trading public fighting the FED, and I would remind readers this is a
losing game for specs.
And since it’s August and we all need some chuckles, directly below the “classic”
tune from “Cardinal Cash”, entitled “BTFD” … I think of all the YouTube vids, this
is the favorite of the Mrs. … “Miss Gimpy”, who’s never seen it before,
was ROFLAO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WoLqtw681Y
Which indirectly brings us to FX, cuz unless Spicoli is bluffing, especially USDJPY
is gonna get beaten down even further … “we’re all bond traders now!” … a very
uneventful day, until the consumer confidence numbers came out, and then it’s a
straight shot into the London Fix, where see my shocked face, USDJPY is straight
up and EUR & GBP straight down … another one of those amazing “coincidences”
we see so often … and now that everybody in institutional land gets filled on their
sells at the bottom, within a minute or two of the “Fix”, the next amazing
“coincidence” happens as everything starts to rally almost immediately … why, if I
didn’t know better, I’d say the whole thing is a scam, perpetrated almost every
single trading day by banks who front run the orders they’re looking at, and then
split the “skim” with the usual suspects of POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators
… “nah, must be the “coincidence Genie” at work! … Bwahahaha, what a frickin’
joke!” … and now that Europe is closed, I don’t want signals going into the New
York afternoon that’s dominated by the criminals at Squid, JPM, etc., where
there’s a very high probability of nothing but chop to the close … none of these
FX pairs can do “Jack Shit” for hours on end, and then suddenly the scumbag
banks get wind of the “London Fix” orders coming into the trading desks … and
lo & behold, watch the wonders of front running, as the illegal prop trading
accounts offshore go into action, so they can be the ones to fill the orders at
18:00 server time.
Even with the “scumbaggery & fuckery”, ranges not that great … if this action
occurred 3 hours earlier, the signals from this I would have taken … but no, 3
hours ago, it’s all a bag of wet sewage not going anywhere, so why do anything
with smallish ranges going nowhere?
Quite frankly, I’m very leery of both Cable & EURUSD right now … who is not
already positioned short that wants to be short? … who? … try nobody, meaning
the fireworks may be on the upside not the downside, as there are a Helluva lot
more spec shorts than longs … on the other hand, colder temps & winter is still
at least 6 weeks away, and a lot can happen in 6 weeks … meanwhile over in
fantasyland, a/k/a the BOJ, they’re still Hellbent on destroying the Yen into some
kind of Peso or Bolivar … 24 months ago, the YEN was at 104 - 105 … today it’s
near 139 … do the math Skippy and figure out the wealth destruction … unreal.
Since I’m not scalping this, USDJPY goes back on the trading list, and quite frankly
has the best ranges over the other two … wouldn’t know it from today, but it’s late
August and nobody gives a shit right now as the world is on vacation somewhere
… I really wonder where the BOJ has its “line in the sand” with regards the YEN
… 140? … 150+? … nowhere? … you’ll know when we get close, when the
unheard of Apparatchiks start giving FX comments to the financial press, so I don’t
think it’s 140 … one thing is for sure, though, it’s an interest rate differential story
between the two 10 YR government bonds … maybe a little “risk on / risk off”
[RORO] if the “Spoos” tank and go tapioca, but mostly it’s interest rates … not
that it’s the easiest to read, but the market dynamic is pretty straight forward,
while for both EUR & GBP it’s a lot more complicated and involves more variables.
Now that Europe is closed, FX is a joke … only one more day in this wretched
month, thank goodness … ADP employment numbers tomorrow, so that could
move things at 8:15 AM EST … let’s hope so! … no trades today … OUTTA HERE
… “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and my own
Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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