BOE raises rates, the ECB leaves rates unchanged … now all that’s left is the
piles of bullshit put forth in the respective pressers, so the Lounge Lizards can
explain themselves … good luck deciphering those layers of horseshit, as it’s
known to cause brain freeze.
Muted reaction in Cable past its first jolt upward, then it starts to trade … the
ECB doesn’t do shit except “blah blah, yada yada”, the usual CB horseshit, and
EURUSD absolutely F-ing explodes up to the 14 hande, pretty much straight up
the frickin’ wall … it’s been a very long time since we’ve seen this … and once
again, Turnkey’s LP’s [market makers really] in FX show their colors when things
get a little spicy … EURUSD spreads blow out to 1.5 PIPS at one point, and have
stayed very elevated since Lagarde opened her Pie Hole at the ECB presser
… Cable & Yen remained normal … and once again the biggest liability in trading
either EURUSD and/or USDJPY is their ability to go straight UP / DOWN, with
almost ZERO corrective activity … and we see this again today … and quite
frankly, it’s pissing me off greatly, cuz there simply aren’t any opportunities
available via the trading algorithm … not so with Cable … now to be sure, just like
all the rest, GBPUSD has its “warts”, the biggest being potential slippage when
SHTF, or even when things are normal you can get shit fills from these thieving
scumbags … but it does “trade” … I should have included it with EUR & Yen from
the beginning, and so I’m doing it now … and I’m not sayin’ Cable doesn’t go
straight from time to time, but it does so a helluva lot less than the other two
… so I’ll start the day with Cable, and from there if need be go to one of the other
two, either EUR or Yen … and if they all die, then I just sit here and watch my nails
grow as I’m strangling myself.
There isn’t a major central bank that wants to see their respective currency rise
… they all want to be at the bottom scraping ZERO, so I don’t know if history will
repeat itself in this instance like it did before back in late 2002 to the start of 2004,
when Cable went from where it is now, around the mid to upper 1.30’s to about
1.85 … first of course, it has to get through the 1.38 - 1.40 zone, but if it does that
it sets up some potentially explosive charts to the upside.
These last 5 days, despite higher U.S. rates, has seen the dollar take a beating
against both Cable & EUR … is this the start of major dollar debasement?
… tomorrow sees NFP, which if you look at Wednesday’s private ADP
employment number, should be a disaster on steroids … the only positive is
everybody knows it, but if we move higher tomorrow for the 6th day in a row, and
extend the gains to the 37 or 38 handle in Cable, then look the hell out cuz I’m here
to tell ya there are a lot of institutions still short, and won’t that short covering
Class A Clusterfark be something if it picks up some serious steam? … one other
thing … with crypto dying on the vine these last weeks, if FX starts to move higher
and VIX improves, will traders come back to FX and join the party? … dunno yet,
it’s too early yet to say, but if they do banks could really come under stress as
markets pick up steam for the first time in a very long while … can Cable pick
back up its old moniker “The Widow Maker”? … well, it’s got my vote!
Meanwhile, EURUSD is pissing all over itself going higher, as Deutsche Bank has
put out a buy reco on it, saying the bottom is in, higher rates & tapering are
coming, and buy EURUSD NOW … a market with a 20 Day Range MA of about
68 PIS, with a range today of 180+ PIPS [so far] and no real corrective action
except one 20 PIP break … quite frankly, in this environment where VIX appears to
be going higher, there’s no way Turnkey’s LP thieves are gonna maintain a 0.1 - 0.2
PIP bid / offer spread … and we’re seeing that today with the spread now hovering
around 0.5 - 0.7, with jumps to over 1 PIP on occasion … meanwhile Cable stays
around 0.6 - 1.0 PIPS the entire day … notwithstanding today’s blowout range, no
way EUR is gonna have a higher consistent range than Cable, so why pay the
higher “vig” for nothing in a market that too often has the propensity to go
straight UP or DOWN, and leave us with no algorithm signals?
I initially didn’t want to go to Cable cuz it has the potential for higher slippage
… however, when weighed against EUR & Yen that go straight UP / DOWN far too
often and leave us cold, I’ll take the potential for higher slippage and deal with it
versus sitting on the sidelines far too often … I think we win in that tradeoff … in
any event, the increase in VIX is welcome news to the FX space … once the CB
meetings were over and the pressers finished, Cable has about a 60 PIP range,
which is adequate … not great but OK, cuz all we need is about 35+ to make the
trading algorithm effective, and there were some good algo signals … not the case
AGAIN in EURUSD, which like Yen, loves to run straight … “I’m not here to be a
“guru”, I’m here to “trade”, as in up / down and then do it again … I can’t do that in
straight run markets … and while Cable has its moments, it ain’t a straight run
market by any stretch … today proves that in spades … as long as it doesn’t “DIE”
on the vine and put in shit like 20 or 30 PIP ranges over 9+ hours, we’ll be OK in
the PAMM cuz the algorithm can handle that … what it can’t handle is straight
up / down or ranges that are simply ridiculously low in scope … with the noted
increase in VIX I like our position right now, simply cuz I don’t foresee Cable
hibernating with extremely low ranges … we see it in EUR & Yen, but not very
often in Cable.
Meanwhile over in crypto, trading action is as close to death as I’ve seen it since
last June / July … I’m still looking at alt-coin pairs that remain volatile [yes, there
are some!] and I anticipate picking one or two of them to trade for “The Syndicate”,
probably starting this upcoming Monday … stay tuned.
No trades in anything today … that will change tomorrow I can assure you, with
my moving over to Cable … how many years, excluding the pandemic hoax
month of March 2020, has it been since we’ve seen FX action like the first 4 days
of this week? … I can tell you, it’s been a “Hoover Dam” long time! … about frickin’
time if you ask me, but nonetheless it’s here now … as a “scalper” mostly cuz it
minimizes risk AND produces profits, there are only 2 limitations to scalping
… 1) you need a market that trades and doesn’t go straight up /down too often,
and 2) you need a minimum of VIX cuz without it you can’t get people to panic
and provide either buy or sell fuel … unless I’m very wrong [gee, that never
happens!], VIX in FX appears to be on the rise … whether in an up or down market,
it doesn’t matter … what matters is people’s attitude towards a market and how it
can hurt them, cuz that’s what provides the buy/sell fuel volatility … in other
words FEAR! … at the same time, it creates FOMO … in other words GREED!
… throw both into the mix and you got yourself a tradeable market ripe for
scalping … and it looks very much to me like institutions are feeling very nervous
about FX, even if specs aren’t here in droves, and that “nervousness” is gonna
drive VIX higher … “IF”, and this is a biggee, the market LP’s aren’t too big of
thieves to rip you off and tilt profits their way instead of yours … this is what we
see in Turnkey’s CFD’s, which are rip offs … want good CFD’s go to “Simple FX”
… you want excellent FX [most of the time], stick with Turnkey cuz they are
consistently the best overall, even though yesterday I got ripped a few tenths
of a PIP on entry [meh, see my tears!] … this isn’t a game of “Whack-A-Mole”,
simply finding the best pair to utilize the trading algorithm … onto tomorrow &
Cable.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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