SAYONARA 2022

 

“Me leaving 2022!!”

I had hoped this week would at least be volatile enough to trade … if not crude oil,

then gold … and the only day we got was Tuesday as gold mini melted up … since

then a chopfest of very low ranges, and stinky “Trading Ratios” [TR] ... today

another OPEX in “Stock Bellies”, and it remains to be seen if the “Spoos” can be

viable at Coinexx or not … they weren’t at Turnkey.

Now into the New York afternoon, and this day is a total bust … ranges greater

than 50% below their respective 20 Day Range MA’s … just nothing here … can it

get worse? … Yup, today proves that! … even the “Spoos” can’t do anything

with an OPEX day [so far] … it makes ZERO sense to see what trading conditions

are like when nothing is happening, so I’ll wait ‘til next week to trade some

“Spoos” on an algorithm signal to see what slippage & latency I get … we’ll see

what happens.

Blog update on New Years Day [Sunday] … looking forward to 2023 cuz IMHO

it’s gonna be a very volatile year … and with that volatility comes opportunity &

profit … the version 2 algorithm is “gold bars”, and when markets move past

this Holiday bullshit, nobody will remember the horseshit ranges and trading

conditions of the last couple of weeks … onto 2023

… Happy New Year everybody!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

FUGETABOUT IT!

 

“The Soprano family as LP’s would be better than what we got now!!”

Hard to imagine it’s worse, but then it is! … always trying their best to screw us

day in and day out … absolutely no reason to see the gold spread go higher other

than pure greed … from around 25 cents to 46 cents, back & forth she goes … as

I’ve said a million times, watch the spread for 5 minutes, and whatever the

HIGHEST amount is, that’s what you’re gonna get … and I ain’t paying 46 cents, I

don’t care if it goes up/down $50 … still, some good signals today in gold, despite

a crap range for the day.

Moving over to crude oil, I am somewhat surprised crude hasn’t reacted to the

ChiComs doing a 180 backflip on COVID … FROM zero tolerance, to just live with

it, and oil can’t react? … in any event, a very low range day with nothing to speak

of in terms of moves that mattered … the oil trade appears to be out for the rest

of 2022.

Over in “Stock Bellies”, a straight shot up, followed mostly by sideways action,

with a halfway decent range … looks to be year end balancing, but who knows … I

had a long talk with Coinexx management earlier today, RE the SP500 CFD

… quite frankly, I’d rather trade the “Spoos” than the DOW30 … same action,

better liquidity & volume … tomorrow I’m gonna do some very light volume

algorithm signal trades in the “Spoos”, where I’ll be watching slippage and

latency very closely … let’s see if their talk matches my trading reality … last day

of the trading year, and it can’t end soon enough … what a crap week, especially

crude oil … “Stock Bellies” better than I thought they would be, and gold

disappoints cuz the Asshats making a market can’t get their shit together and

make an honest market … Gee, who’s shocked over this one? … it’s why we have

3 markets … they can’t all be “EFFED UP” by LP’s can they? … no trades today

for the PAMM cuz gold was messed up beyond repair, crude oil dead, and the

“Stock Bellies” never corrected enough to matter the entire day from the criminal

NYSE open … from where I sit, the version 2 trading algorithm is “gold in the

vault”, it’s that good … natch, we got end of the year “scumbaggery & fuckery”

going on with spreads and slippage cuz they can, so nobody should be

shocked by thieving LP’s or markets that go nowhere fast … I’m a little surprised

the “Spoos” went orbital today, but “Stock Bellies” are in a different universe

than gold or oil … financial versus phyz … let’s see what year end brings … onto

tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

HUMP DAY IN THE WORST TRADING WEEK OF THE YEAR

 

“When sexy, volatile markets turn ugly! … today is one of those days!!”

When it comes to trading action, count today as one of the worst, especially in

crude oil … yea, everybody knows we’re in the week between Christmas & New

Years, and some years action is OK … this ain’t one of ‘em … at least so far,

“hump day” [that’s Wednesday for you Biden voters] has been very

disappointing … granted, there’s Thursday & Friday to go and anything can still

happen, but it ain’t lookin’ good.

Only the DOW30 [so far] has any kind of decent “Trading Ratio” [TR], coming in

around the 4 level … that’s the good news … on the other side of the coin, from

the criminal NYSE open to now [about 3 hours], it’s been straight down after the

usual Chipmunk feeding at the open … crude oil & gold might as well be closed

… a little down action, but it’s a “baby crawl” lower action that does nobody any

good … looks like volatility has started drinking early for New Years Eve … add to

that very subpar ranges, and what’s the point?

And as I write, gold turns around and rallies $10+ off the low … quite frankly, I

was looking for a rally entry to sell gold, but the algorithm prevented me from

doing so … right near the bottom it turned into “buy mode” … after the rally, near

the top it turned into “sell mode” … it’s what I was looking for hours ago, not now

… I’m not interested in a sell signal at around 1:30 PM in the New York afternoon,

this close to the close … just not enough time on a day during a week that for all

intents and purposes is a “throw away” week … granted, yesterday saw some

great action and caught a lot of traders by surprise, including me … ain’t nobody

getting surprised today … for what it’s worth, both the buy and the sell mode

signals were great … better than the original algorithm … get me out of this week,

and I won’t have problems with buying or selling in the afternoon … around a

Holiday, especially major ones [next one after New Years is Easter], and I’m very

cautious cuz conditions change from bad to worse, worse-er, and worse-er-er in

a heartbeat.

No PAMM trades today cuz there’s absolutely nothing to do except get in trouble,

and everything worth doing came after 1 PM EST in the trading day … even so,

price is where it was 10+ hours ago, so nothing has really happened … “a little

song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants” kind of Holiday trading day

… simply pathetic, but given the calendar, not surprising … onto tomorrow and

hopefully it’s better than what I saw today … in retrospect, the DOW30

outperformed slightly as the TR was better, gold came on late but did ZERO the

first 20 hours of the day, and crude was just lagging the entire day … nothing

positive to say about crude today … hard to imagine it being worse.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

HAPPY HOLIDAYS GOLD SHORTS!

 

“Casual wear for a gold trader!!”

Welp!, nothing like an approximate $33 range for gold today, with shorts getting

obliterated on a breakout above 1822 … imagine what 2023 will hold for our

favorite pet rock? … meanwhile, a dead day for crude oil, with not even a $2 range

as I write, and the DOW30 muddling along up/down with no place to go.

Short blog today as I work on some projects … missed 2 wonderful algorithm

buy signals cuz I’m an idiot … did take one algorithm buy signal, but was

disappointed in how it acted once I got in … volume was very light, but fills and

latency excellent, so no complaints there … knock on wood let’s keep it like that!

… PAMM UP FRACTIONALLY TODAY … didn’t see that explosion in price to the

upside coming, especially since the DOW30 and crude oil did very little … oh

well, live and learn … the version 2 algorithm modeled price behavior perfectly

… now all I need to do is take the red pill into the gold matrix … today showing

beyond all doubt, if you snooze you lose … onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

“TWILIGHT ZONE” LUNACY IS HERE TO STAY

 

“Rod Serling analyzes every trade you’ve ever made!!”

Another Christmas in the books, and today only FX currency pairs are open,

although one look at the spreads there and all you can do is laugh … “Boxing

Day” a quasi Holiday in and of itself, and all of the CFD’s at “SLIPPAGE FX”

[a/k/a Coinexx + Turnkey] are closed for the day … that means spot gold

[XAUUSD], WTI Crude Oil, and the DOW30 are down for the count, and will

reopen early this evening for regular trading.

Friday did provide us with important info … namely, how low can VIX go in a

normal session, in this era of central bank manipulation? … and, can the

theoretical version 2 trading algorithm model price behavior as well as the

original algorithm can when VIX is a lot higher? … coming into the last couple

of days into Christmas weekend, I thought it could, but you never really know ‘til

you see it in real time … I would note, though, that if we had had VIX a few

notches lower than Thursday & especially Friday, we would have to sit … there

are some lower levels in our 3 markets that can’t be breached without some

serious ramifications for modeling price behavior … quite frankly, I don’t see it

happening going forward … that doesn’t mean it can’t, only it’s “looney tunes”

even for “The Twilight Zone” … most likely if it does occur, it’s a one off and not

worth modeling … I nor anybody else can make allowances for every market

moving possibility.

Our 3 markets for PAMM trading exhibit as high a VIX structure as you’re gonna

find on a consistent daily basis … the DOW30 trades inside the “88/6/6” paradigm

[88% of the time it goes up, 6% of the time it goes sideways, and 6% of the time it

gets beat to death harder than a baby seal at a Japanese whale hunt] … stay out

of the way in the “back 6”, and you can back the yacht up and load the cash

… crude oil and gold are more demand oriented markets, where not only is

trading action more attuned to a 50/50 model, but unless there is ample evidence

of a complete depression on the horizon in world economies, both enjoy a

somewhat artificial floor underneath price, while at the same time the sky is the

limit for advances.

Currently, crude oil has about a 4% range of the value of the underlying

commodity, gold a little less than 1 ½ % of the underlying, and the DOW30 a little

less than 2% of the underlying stocks … if we could trade the oil CFD’s like oil

trades in the futures market, I’d never look at any other market … the fact is, we

can’t … blown out spreads and slippage a major problem, even on the tiniest of

orders … the DOW30 CFD has a liquidity problem … go up the volume ladder

and watch in horror as slippage goes exponential … it would be nice to be able

to trade the SP500, but the bid/offer spread is a rip off. 

Ever since the 2020 COVID HOAX, when gold spreads went orbital, conditions

have gradually improved over the months and couple of years, to a point they

are only slightly higher than before … on average only a few pennies higher from

$300 - $500 ago in price … as price goes higher, it only makes sense for some

adjustment in spreads, as the VAR [variance] of price changes quicken in scope

… but of the 3 markets, “IF” the spread can stay consistent at around 25 cents

currently [give or take a few pennies depending], gold exhibits much better runs

up & down AND attendant corrective activity, than the other 2 markets … FROM

MY PERSPECTIVE, what has always plagued gold [even back in pit trading days!],

is its innate ability to hit off as many “false positive” positions as the universe

can allow, and get you to be long at tops and short at bottoms, and then take off

on some nice run with you sitting at the train station as the train leaves … all the

while the conductor waves “Buh Bye” and laughs his ass off … for me, it’s never

been about VIX per se, but the “sucker moves” … and nobody but nobody is

better at initiating “sucker moves” than the LBMA [London Bullion Market

Association] that runs and controls spot gold [XAUUSD] … question is, with

higher corrective activity than either crude or DOW30, can gold be modeled

successfully when VIX dips? … the answer is “YES”, but it has limitations … well,

nobody is expecting the “Holy Grail”, and on those days [hopefully few and far

between] when conditions suck, we got crude and DOW30 to fill the void … quite

frankly, crude oil is very, very close to gold in many ways … the big advantage I

see for gold over crude is its corrective activity is stronger more often … bottom

line, though, is if any of these 3 markets are “dead”, there isn’t anything worth

trading anyway.

This shortened week also sees me finish up the very short term binary options

manual … should have it done by New Years Day sometime .. .when I’m satisfied

version 2 of the trading algorithm is “killer”, I’ll update and post over in

“Download Links” … onto the week! 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: MERRY CHRISTMAS & OTHER THOUGHTS

 

“Define good!!”

Merry Christmas everybody, especially those digging out of the “bomb cyclone”

hitting the U.S. … why even myself, I’m a little chilly this morning down here in

the Caribbean, where currently it’s about 76 °F … hang on while I put my light

hoodie on, and raise my clenched fist into the air in show of solidarity, while

sipping my raspberry latte and watching the waves lovingly kiss the beach in

front of me … I’ve got my “Baby it’s cold outside” sympathy ribbon proudly

attached to my hoodie so everyone knows I’m down with the struggle.

And while I bravely carry on down here, wondering if we can hit 80 °F today, and

I have to wear my hoodie all day while clutching my pearls, life goes on … later in

the day, the Costanza family comes over for Festivus celebrations, dinner, and

the airing of grievances … should be a fun packed day!

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.

click on table to enlarge

Note that I’ve added gold [XAUUSD] in the New York session, so all 3 of our

markets [gold, DOW30, & WTI Crude Oil] have data for both daily and New York

sessions [as I have defined them in the notes] … and as you can clearly see,

unless there is something specifically in the news to move them in the Asian

session and early Europe, a substantial portion of the day’s range most often

occurs during New York trading [gold 78%, DOW30 86%, and WTI Crude Oil 86%]

… these percentages are a tad high cuz of Holiday periods stretching from

Thanksgiving to New Years, and I wouldn’t expect them to remain this high once

we get into the new year … closer to 70% - 75% is more like the norm … even so,

over time these 3 markets have shown a remarkable resiliency to remain volatile

… the key factor in trading them for the PAMM continues to be the day-to-day

variable spread placed upon us by scumbag, thieving LP’s … of the 3 markets,

gold is the most consistent, followed by DOW30, and then WTI Crude Oil … and

lest anybody thinks I’m picking on poor “SLIPPAGE FX” [a/k/a Coiness + Turnkey],

I’m not cuz the spreads for these 3 markets are pretty much industry norms if you

do your homework … granted, some houses may have a “loss leader” and have

a quotable spread lower, but you ain’t getting any bargains there cuz they’ll make

up for that by having bid/offer quotes that jump around even worse than houses

that you think are terrible … bottom line is you’re gonna pay the industry norm

one way or the other.

What has pissed me off to no end in these higher than average volatile markets in

2022, has been 1) the INCONSISTENCY OF THE VIX STRUCTURE during the New

York trading day, where one day it’s off the charts, and the next 4 days it sucks

… and that means spikes from Hell, both up & down out of nowhere, where you

think it means what it doesn’t … namely, here we go and market action improves

… instead, after blowing stops out, it dies … and 2) straight shot market runs both

up & down with ZERO corrective activity … and once the moves are over, you

don’t want any part of the corrective activity cuz there won’t be any continuation

of the move.

Both of these go to the very heart of creating and developing a proper trading

algorithm, but they both demand criteria that work against each other! … you

develop it for volatility, and when the market dies, then what? … you develop it for

far slower VIX, and then it goes on a tear, now what? … up ‘til now I’ve been

content to “wait the slow periods out” … problem here, is that they’re happening

with increased frequency versus historical norms, so that even when conditions

improve, you either don’t want to trade a signal or are hesitant to make the trade

cuz you know what happens when it dies down to a trickle … in other words, they

got you coming and going and right where they want you.

The trading algorithm posted over in “Download Links”, does a fantastic job of

nailing price behavior WHEN VIX IS CONSISTENT AND REMAINS ELEVATED

… when it doesn’t, the false positives go north exponentially, and you find

yourself behind losing trades and “chop” … what to do Skippy, what to do?

Over the past weeks and months I’ve been addressing this problem, and through

various code adjustments and other hocus pocus tricks of the trade, as well as

getting small range days mixed in with big range days so I can see both sides of

the VIX coin, from Thanksgiving onward to present day, I think I got the solution

… I fortunately had “Miss Gimpy” test it out on Friday in gold, on a day that saw

the range for the day 50% less than its 20 Day Range MA, as well as very subpar

in the New York session … she had a very profitable day … back testing both

crude oil and DOW30 for the day afterwards yielded good results as well … if you

look, on Friday all of their respective charts were correlating rather well … that of

course doesn’t always hold up, but given the lack of news flow they correlated

well most of the day.

Bottom line is I’ll be using this newer version [version 2.0] of the trading

algorithm come tomorrow or Tuesday, and going forward … take note of the

results … if I like what I see, and I think I most assuredly will, I’ll make the

appropriate revisions in the manual and repost it … onto the week at hand

… Merry Christmas everybody! 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas