I don’t know with 100% certainty that what has happened in BTC at Turnkey is
the correct explanation, but it’s the only thing that makes sense … to recap, over
the last week BTC pricing at Turnkey has gone from ridiculous to “prime” … now,
I fully understand an HFT’s dilemma in providing liquidity provider [LP] services
to a brokerage house in something like Bitcoin … you simply can’t afford to get
sloppy and get whacked, while at the same time stop with the thieving of accounts
… there is a “middle ground”, and I think maybe Turnkey has found it.
BINANCE is the world’s largest crypto exchange … already today in the last 24
hours, BTC volume at BINANCE is roughly $14.4 BILLION DOLLARS … plus or
minus a few bucks from the most recent trade, the order book is at LEAST 2 - 5
Bitcoin deep in current bid / offer … an HFT doing arbitrage between BINANCE
and an outfit like Turnkey would be getting the very lowest “gas fees”
[commissions] they offer … that would occur with an API [Application
Programmable Interface] that allows them to go back & forth with trades that
either hedge a profit or book a profit from anything done by a client of Turnkey’s
… in essence, that would allow Turnkey to quote and price trading that is below
current “gas fees” any individual could get on his/her own, unless they trade
billions per month which is unlikely … directly below, a split screen of Turnkey
versus BINANCE ORDER BOOK FOR BTC.
The only “mystery” in all of this, is whether or not the HFT gets greedy and blows
the spread out to earn more FREE MONEY … and here, “FREE MONEY” means
yours! … for example, over at PHEMEX, I can trade BTC with ZERO FEES IN SPOT,
but the spread is usually between $7 - $25 … so when Turnkey quotes BTC with a
spread of $5, or even $10, how can they do it with normal “gas fees” that are
roughly 0.1% [round turn] which equals about $55? … the answer is that the HFT
is using its enormous “economies of scale” in pricing and ULTRA LOW
“GAS FEES” and passing it on in order to make guaranteed money from trades
… this is the only thing that makes any sense as to the how / why Turnkey can
quote BTC like they do … even if you get “clipped” by $5 - $10 on any buy/sell,
you still come out ahead cuz there is a GUARANTEED “gas fee” of about $55 on
the round turn trade [0.1% of $55,000 = $55].
Now, the $64,000 question is, “can they keep it here!”?, or does Turnkey piss away
this opportunity to make a crypto name for itself … you probably know what I’m
thinkin’, but what I’m thinkin’ about it is completely irrelevant … only time will tell!
… and again, I’ll remind readers this is completely new in the last week or so, cuz
before that their BTC trading was a cruel joke … maybe once this is established,
they can go to work on ETH? … we’ll see, but so far that pair is horribly priced.
So far since the European open, there was one stretch where BTC spiked UP
about $700 in 15 minutes, and the spread at Turnkey blew out some to about $30
[a month ago it would have blown out to over $100+] … that’s still better than the
GUARANTEED $55 [or higher] you’re gonna pay on any “open order book”
platforms, unless you do billions per month in BTC volume, and I don’t think that
describes anybody I know … now that price has settled down somewhat and BTC
is back to normal “bat shit crazy”, eyeballing the Turnkey spread it’s about
$7 - $15 … so even assuming a little “scumbaggery” on the part of the HFT, which
is to be expected, we’re still better off in terms of pricing.
Turning to the manipulated markets on the MT4, gold gets “monkey hammered” &
Cable wins the “FUBAR Volatility Award” for the day, with a stellar 44 PIP range
… seriously, can this shit get any worse? … I can’t wait for the smartest people in
FX to go to 6 decimal trading, that way it can look volatile while nothing happens
… quite frankly, I shouldn’t give them any ideas … meanwhile, over in our favorite
yellow pet rock, it seems higher rates today in the 10 YR Treasury spooked some
longs … well not really, just the same old, same old “Comex Con Game” at work,
ringing the Pavlovian bell for the specs right on schedule … seems “Santa Joe”
and his great socialist $6 TRILLION DOLLAR giveaway has got bonds spooked
today … go figure … you people that live in the U.S., you’re sooooooooo screwed,
and it’s all unfolding before your eyes just like I said it was going to months ago if
this “Ding Dong Fartbag” and his “Manchurian Candidate” VP stole the election
and were “installed” … anybody unfortunate enough to have to watch this
demented Doofus speak last night to Sycophants in the “Clown College”, you
have my deepest sympathies … and there goes your country down the toilet!
Bitcoin for its part, seeing one of the smallest range days in months, excluding
April Fools Day … as I’ve said before, BTC is trading like the manipulated pieces
of shit in FX, namely EURUSD & USDJPY … and you see this today in spades, as
price mirrors mindless chop while the “whales” have a field day running stops
… just like the scumbag LP banks do over in FX … and when BTC goes “choppy”,
back the hell away before you get hurt, cuz with the velocity with which this puppy
moves, PLUS SLIPPAGE, you ain’t gotta a prayer to make coin in this thing
… “hello, piece of meat? … meet the meat grinder”!
No trades today in the TURNKEY PAMM.
With Cable and gold playing dead, I turned my attention today to BTC … and while
there were a few close algorithm signals, BTC simply NOT providing the
necessary range OR volatility today to get the algorithm in sync and produce a
trade … and good thing, cuz looking at the M1 chart it looks like pasta thrown up
against a wall … nothing here but trouble today, and if you let it, BTC can sure
give you plenty of that.
Ripple [XRPUSDT] is back trading at PHEMEX … not that it matters much today, cuz
the alt-coins putting in a very slow day in terms of ranges & trading action … TRX
slowing down to a range you got to go back to when it was quoted under 10 cents,
back in January & February … good grief, there were times this morning I thought
the internet had gone out, it was so slow … nevertheless, multiple algorithm
signals today in both TRXUSDT & ONTUSDT, and “The Syndicate” IS UP
APPROXIMATELY 0.11%
And quite frankly, given the trading action, I consider myself fortunate to have
made that! … VIX dropping way off today, right along with Bitcoin and its
pathetic performance … oh well, not everyday can have perfect conditions, and
you take the good, bad, & ugly when they come … we can’t control it, we only
trade it!
… outta here early … “the future’s so bright I need sunglasses”! 😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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