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Thursday, March 19, 2020

THE GREAT LEVERAGE UNWIND IS HAPPENING!

“It helps to know who you really are!”

Markets find themselves in the greatest derivatives leverage “unwind” in human
history … the amounts of money involved are truly staggering in scope,
involving many multiple trillions of dollars, and encompass every major market in
the world … in their haste to cover losses, everything is for sale … that it’s
happening so fast is what’s surprising me, not the fact it is finally unwinding.

Having lived through multiple tumultuous market upheavals, what you see
unfolding in these last weeks is why I’m NOT an investor and never have been
… I care about today, about now, and have always bought into the premise
learned long ago, that if you buy at “1” and sell at “2”, or vice versa, and do it
consistently, EVERYTHING ELSE TAKES CARE OF ITSELF! … you want money?,
well here ya go … you want the trader “lifestyle”, well here ya go … you want
financial security WITHOUT the hassles seen today, well here ya go … from my
perspective, security is gained through market chaos, something that is always
present … all you really need to do is find the proper market with the lowest cost
that offers some IVIX [intraday volatility], and you’re ready to go!

Today not as crazy as prior days, but in the Asian & European sessions, bid/offer
spreads & trading conditions were simply horrible, especially the Asian session
where conditions were “Loony Tunes” … only USDJPY & EURUSD are the 2
markets that are “normal”, and the increases in bid/offer spreads are maybe a
tenth or two of a PIP higher … given the increase in VIX,, that isn’t going to make
a difference to anybody … most of the FX crosses, gold, crude oil, & the stock
indices [a/k/a “stock bellies”] are a fucking joke right now, and to trade them with
the “vig” the scumbag LP banks want you to pay through 200% - 500%+ higher
bid/offer spreads PLUS SLIPPAGE, is totally unacceptable … want to give money
away, send it to me, and I promise to spend it on “stupid shit” to make you feel
better!

Headlines today filled with central bankers playing QE Santa Claus … like I said
yesterday, first we get the deflationary bubble popping, which takes all asset
classes lower, including gold … however, when that’s over we’re staring “World
Weimar Republic” directly in the face, and it’s hyperinflation time with the trillions
in money printing … today sees the BOE go full retard basket of kittens with
interest rate cuts to almost ZERO, and QE stimulus … since Cable has fallen
roughly 1600 PIPS straight down, it’s created a short covering frenzy that is in
process now … elevator down and then elevator straight up, and in panic
conditions who knows where it ends … gold not the beneficiary of anything,
right along with “stock bellies”, and with trading conditions blown to shit, best
avoided for now.

Both AUDUSD & GBPUSD seeing “snap back” short covering panic buying today,
and if you want off the wall bat shit crazy, well there ya go … the trading
algorithm giving off some eye watering signals, but I would warn people that this
is simply short covering … many moons of horseshit trading conditions await
both pairs in the weeks & months ahead, as both have been obliterated by
deleveraging … the AUD pair especially getting hit in any AUD crosses.

A couple of algorithm signal trades today in EURUSD … TURNKEY PAMM / MAM
UP 0.2%

I want to point out especially on a day like today, where FX pairs correlate
strongly and then all of a sudden they don’t, that while Cable was rocketing
higher, EURUSD was going lower … and my point is, just cuz one pair is going
up, don’t assume the pair you’re trading is going to either … treat ALL FX PAIRS
independently from others, and only make trades when you get algorithm signals
to buy or sell … if you jump the gun, heartache will more than likely follow.

My personal preference is to avoid New York afternoons for FX, unless you get
news flow specific events, like seen these last weeks with “stock bellies” going
tapioca and/or screaming higher … especially when the range for the day is
clearly above the 20 Day Range MA, and you already have profits “booked” from
previous trades during the day … throw into the miz that New York Wall Street
banks are complete criminals and Europe is closed, and more times than not you
will be disappointed in trades with the likes of Squid, JPM, & Citibank picking
your pocket … however that’s just me, and if it doesn’t bother you, it sure as hell
doesn’t bother me, just sayin’.

The great thing about FX, is you can tailor pick a pair to your risk profile, your
preferred times to trade, and you can trade it in any size from the very smallest
position size of pennies per PIP, all the way up to $1000+ per PIP … all with very
low costs [most of the time, excluding the bat shit moments we’re in now for
most pairs], and very low margins … hell, PRIMEXBT’S margin rate for FX is
1000X [0.1%] for volumes under 300,000 notional, which is for dollar pairs $30 per
PIP … right now today, the best pairs for bid/offer spread conditions are USDJPY,
EURUSD, AUDUSD, & AUDJPY … and all of them today had “bigly & yuge” daily
ranges, far & away above their 20 Day Range MA’s, respectively … given that,
and seeing how we’re all here to make money and not give it away doing “stupid
shit”, like handing it to the scumbag LP bank for nothing, why trade other pairs?
… as I’ve said many times, I’d trade soiled underwear futures if the conditions
were right and IVIX was there … “it’s numbers going up/down, in a rhythmic
pattern they ALL OBEY LIKE CLOCKWORK … buy @ 1, sell @ 2 or vice versa
… make the money, go live a life, come back again tomorrow and do it again
… it’s what the trading algorithm does … follow it and get rich, ignore it and get
poor or poorer than when you came through the door … and as I can tell you
from first hand experience trading all these decades, through thick and thin,
nobody gives a shit in your life about the reasons you couldn’t make money
today … all they want to know is “how much did you make me today”?
… opinions are for “guru’s”, professional traders simply make money.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


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