WHEN DOES THE PANIC BUTTON GET HIT?

“At some point, it happens!”

Three times this morning, starting right before the European open, the friendly “Plunge Protection Team” has been in the stock indices, shooting them instantly 20 higher every time the Dow30 peaks its “panicked brow” under 21040; and three times they have caused the shorts to hit the “panic button” and scramble to cover shorts. EXIT QUESTIONS: “When do the longs panic? And how much of this North Korea stuff is real and how much is posturing bullshit”? My sense is, that it’s posturing bullshit, but with crazy people you never know, so the little pot-bellied dictator has that going for him.

What makes matters worse for markets … all of them … is that they were all over-extended to begin with. The EURUSD, EURJPY, & the Dow30 all went hyperbolic on the upside before news of North Korea’s nuclear weapons … and so, it didn’t take much of anything to get people to start hitting the “panic button” to get the hell out. The money question is, how much of the declines is natural market forces at work, and how much is worry over nuclear war? I’d say it’s about 90 / 10 in favor of market forces. I wouldn’t worry much about nuclear war, cuz if it happens, whatever market you’re trading will be the least of all our worries. In other words, “never sell markets short planning on the end of the world; if you’re right it won’t matter how much money you have cuz we’re all dead, but if you’re wrong, the world moves on and your broke”!

Today, we find ourselves smack dab in the middle of sanity & panic, and my hope is the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] is at the ready, cuz it won’t take much to get people to hit the “Peter Griffin button”, especially if the SP500 gets below 2460 … between 2463 and 2460 are the sell stops, and any 50’s print will set off some kind of wave of panic selling. If the PPT isn’t there, if it happens, this could get ugly real quick.

Turning to today’s trading … I’m tellin’ you right now; 1) if today doesn’t prove the outright, overt manipulation of the Dow30 & SP500, nothing ever will, and 2) for the moment, all of the stock indices are untradeable … they won’t rally, they won’t break, and the scumbag LP hands out the worst shit fills via slippage [take the 2 point spread, and add 1-3 points for slippage on every damn fill, on both sides; it’s like we have a 5 point spread]. I would bitch to Turnkey, but what’s the point? All that would happen is that the HAL1000 computer system at the LP bank would tell me, “I have checked myself and everything is fine … your fills are excellent [puke]. Dave? Dave, we don’t have a problem do we”? As for the DAX30, it’s a basket case as well.

Seriously, the blatant spike ramps up [thank you PPT], which have occurred at least 10 times since Europe opened, are pure bullshit … coming out of nowhere and in seconds going up 20+ points … and when they’re done with the manipulation, it’s right back down; but if your objective is to screw shorts, then it’s mission accomplished. I’m tired of getting bullshit fills getting in and bullshit fills getting out … the entire complex is a train wreck, whose only purpose is to bleed money from us. Simply put, you can’t trade it; the deck is stacked against us by the manipulators and the LP bank. Together, all they do is bleed us; well screw that. From now on in the actual stock indices, I’ll pick my spots much more judiciously on breaks, looking to position the trade rather than trade it; if I must, I’ll hang on through rollover into Asia and let the trade ride if the proper conditions are met. Simply put, I’ll ride winners longer, and take away their trading advantage over us. To put it mildly, I’m pissed at getting hosed by these scumbags, and no more will I be willing to trade this crap. But don’t worry, I won’t be taking any positions over the weekend; we’ll always be flat.

Today gives a perfect illustration of my frustration with the entire stock indices complex; I got long once on a EURJPY lower SDEV hit, and a few minutes later I wanted to get long again, but chose the Dow30 instead for my “risk on” trade; what a mistake that was. Screwed getting in, and screwed getting out while EURJPY roared higher, going up 70 PIPS off the low while the Dow30 couldn’t do Mr. Jack Squat, cuz it’s being manipulated like you can’t believe.

EURJPY, make no mistake, is a “risk on / risk off” trade just like the stock indices; generally speaking though, if appetite for stocks is good, EURJPY is rising, and vice versa, although there are some other factors that play into EURJPY that are only tangentially related to stock indices. However, and this is important, trading conditions in EURJPY are light years better than either the DAX30 and/or the Dow30 currently and of late …  both indices are nothing but “saw mills” and we are the wood. And as we have seen in the DAX30, there is no limit to the damage these indices can do to an account once they get rolling with the bullshit spikes … and you simply have to “draw  a line in the sand” when it comes to risk, otherwise as much as it sucks to take a small loss, it sucks even more to take a big hit … and I’ve seen lately more than a few of my trading acquaintances go belly up telling themselves the stock indices will come back, so don’t worry … well, how did that work out? Up/down, it makes no difference, cuz even in the Dow30, when the manipulators back away, the spikes down are vicious and quick, so you just can’t take the attitude that stuff is coming back for you.

Bottom line is EURJPY is practically the only correlated cross vehicle instrument versus the stock indices I can trade and not get completely screwed by the LP; conditions are far, far superior in EURJPY than the Dow30 and/or DAX30, slippage is minimal to non-existent, and it moves … something I can’t say with any confidence about the Dow30. Today, instead of a losing day [down a couple of hundred bucks collectively, thank you very much Dow30 manipulators & LP], I’d be up over 1%+ if I had been in EURJPY instead of the Dow30. Guess where I’ll be tomorrow? With that in mind, I’ll have the EURJPY trading manual done this weekend, using the Version 4 Volatility Algorithm.

More than anything, I’m pissed at myself; I saw the EURJPY set up & develop, and the algorithm called it beautifully … quiet frankly, I’m tired of getting chewed up and spit out by LP’s and manipulators [government in the Dow30 & “big money” holdovers from the SP500 in the DAX30], and the ever present vicious large spikes as the only moving M1’s on the screen. Nothing trades, it only “lurches” to a level and then sits there … rinse, repeat, and I’m sick of it. I’m tired of the “paper cuts” … risking more than I want, to make coffee money if I’m lucky … I’ll position it some on duly noted breaks when they come and take proper risk/reward factors into consideration, but I’m not going to trade it unless conditions improve dramatically … we’re better off in EURJPY as a “proxy”, then put up with the bullshit that is being fed us now. “LP’s & manipulators at the FED, go intercourse thine selves”!

Can you tell I’m tired of this BS from the Dow30 & DAX30? Seriously, every phantom move these 2 markets make, is captured to one extent or another by EURJPY; our “net” cost of doing business here is about 0.003 – 0.004 PIPS. Today it had about a 104 PIP range [normal], and traded [for the most part] in orderly conditions, except when it hit the low of the day at the lower SDEV line and I bought it … seconds later for a scalp I dumped it for a profit … tell me how I do this in the Dow30 when it won’t move, or the DAX30 when it hits a high and then gets crushed lower 25 points in 2 seconds with 5 – 7 point interval point lower bids?

And, as if I need another reason to be pissed off, I’ve had it with Microsoft Excel and the whole Office 365 BS. Again today, for the umpteenth time in the last few months, my spreadsheet program is malfunctioning; time to dump Microsoft and go to “Open Office”, which is free and does exactly what Excel & Word do. I’m going to call Microsoft tonight and cancel my Office 365 and then download and install “Open Office”; I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet up to date and current for tomorrow’s blog post. You won’t even know the difference, cuz they look exactly alike.

Here in mid to late afternoon the Dow30 hit a new low by 1 point and then immediately rallied 10… rinse, repeat, down to another new low and then immediately rally 15 within 60 seconds … same old shit, different day … get the sell stops under the low and then bid it higher quickly. Meanwhile, EURJPY has drifted lower from its most recent high of 129.320-ish to down around 129.070 area on the Dow30 softness; a nice 20+ PIP drop versus the 6-10 idiot points the Dow30 has given us if short from hours ago… and you then have to deal with LP slippage. So, somebody tell me where the bargain is for the Dow30?

So, EURJPY effectively mirrors the “risk on” [buy stocks] and the “risk off” [sell stocks], only it does it much better than the manipulated Dow30 does in vastly superior trading conditions. And to be brutally honest with everyone, I haven’t been trading anywhere near full volume in either the DAX30 or the Dow30 because I don’t trust the action and DO NOT want to get caught being forced into selling a waterfall break to liquidate … you all know what that means. EURJPY is different … it’s at least 50 – 100 times bigger than the Dow30 & DAX30 combined, and can handle any volume, which means I can stop waiting for the stock indices to get their act together and start trading full volume through the “proxy” in pretty much any volume I want. Simply put, it’s time to start making some real money and leave the $50 gains to somebody else; you’ll see the difference starting tomorrow. Onward & Upwards!

Beach time … the dog and I are outta here. Until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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