WE’VE JUST HIT PEAK STUPIDITY

“Breakfast for Politicians & Bankers; every day … all day!”

It’s official; the U.S. has hit “peak stupidity”. Culturally, politically, economically, & socially, I don’t see how it can get any worse than it is now without the country dissolving. What we see play out every single frickin’ day is nothing more than a circus; “bread & circus” [as the Romans would say] to keep an absolute dumb downed public entertained while the empire crumbled around them.

The deceit, lies, and total hypocrisy of the Left [yes; liberals, progressives, Snowflakes, & the bat excrement tin foil Loons of the far left], combined with the utter stupidity [on so many levels too numerous to mention] of the Republican right, has produced a political environment I can only describe as “toxic”. So, if you somehow think politicians are in Washington to “fix problems”, you are completely delusional and need professional help; Pols are in Washington to push “agendas”, especially Libtards who somehow think turning the country on its ass towards socialism & communism is the answer. [Hint: it’s the ‘answer” because government is “religion”, and government supplies you with all the “goodies” you want & need if you continue to vote for them; which should tell you what they really think of you.]

And then we have the infamous “Main Stream Media” [MSM], who for decades have controlled the “thought process” enlightened elites on both coasts have turned to for guidance and thought control. Over the last 20 years, they have lost enormous influence, whatever prestige they thought they had, and most importantly readers & viewers of their propaganda, as it has become readily apparent they are nothing more than the media wing of the Democrat party. Nothing highlights this more than 1) the utterly biased news coverage of the 2016 election for President, and 2) overlooking anything and everything Preezy Chalky Soetero did the previous 8 years from the disastrous, traitorous Iran deal, his targeting of conservatives by the IRS, the total clusterfark known as “ObamaCare” which has single handily wrecked U.S. healthcare for untold millions of working families, to his abuse of the intelligence agencies because he knows the aforementioned MSM won’t call him out on it [oh, and he’s “black”; which means any criticism means you’re racist]. If you can’t see this, go to your “safe space” and reflect.

And all of this crap bleeds over into Wall Street, where last night after the close, the Dow30 had a mini melt down on a New York Enquirer [Times] blurb about “Memo Gate”, and the fact some left wing betting sight has raised the odds of a Trump impeachment from about 15% to about 30%; a 100% increase don’tchaknow! Forget the fact that in the last couple of months, both WaPo & NYT have produced “hit pieces” that are totally untrue and outright lies, the latest being WaPo with their “Trump gave secrets to the Russians” bullshit from some anonymous source; “hey, forget the fact we are biased and produce articles pushing an agenda; forget the fact we have unsourced rumors that we need to use to promote said agenda to our ‘useful idiots’; and lastly, forget the fact we have no idea what we are talking about, but have mind numbed readers who need their “fix” of “hate Trump” to get through the day, and it all makes sense … OK”?

And so, the muppets that are so long stocks right now they can hardly stand it, and we’re told by the ‘talking heads” they started pushing the sell button last night cuz Trump is “toast”, his agenda for the economy is “toast”, and by this morning at 10 A.M. he will have resigned, they start selling stocks cuz of the impending Armageddon. “What utter & complete bullshit”! The entire country is run by elitist “nut jobs”, from Washington to Wall Street, they act like a herd of sheep … there is no leadership anywhere, there is only reaction and a further tearing down of the fabric of what once was a great country. I look at “supposed” leadership; Pelosi, Schumer, Ryan, McConnell, and their sycophants and I want to puke. These people aren’t qualified to run a frickin’ hot dog stand. “However, you want bribery, corruption, influence peddling, no bid government contracts to relatives, special favors to campaign donors, and just outright sleazy behavior 24/7, then you get what you deserve by continuing to vote for these assclowns”.

One of the worrisome factors in trading that has crept into markets over the last 20 years, is this constant meddling by Pols, Fed Apparatchiks, & other central banks [most notably the SNB & BOJ] that “skew” trading behavior. How the hell is anybody supposed to know what assclown Pols are going to say? And as I have proven in earlier blog posts the outright manipulation and scheming by the SNB to “take over” the world’s largest tech companies with nothing more than printed worthless fiat [created last night no doubt], how do you square that with traditional means of evaluating markets? SHORT ANSWER: “You can’t”!

Turning to today’s market … we should see a sell off early, and the key is whether or not the first low holds … the last couple of months it has on almost every occasion, but the herd is long right now, and as I said yesterday, “the tree needs to get shaken some” before we can march higher. Here at the open, we get the worst possible outcome if you are bullish; namely, open and attempt to go higher. These early BTFD’ers are banking on a rally off of the overnight break … wrong … to see higher prices later, we needed to see a gap lower with stops taken out on the downside … we didn’t get it. When these chumps early buys are filled and there isn’t anything behind it, the market will roll over and we will get a test of the lows [most likely].

“Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it”? First trade of the day directly below; this is the first low from the open, so I’m treating it as a scalp … might go higher than where I sold it, but if it does I don’t care cuz I know the history of how this stuff trades over years and decades, and it ain’t the first low you want to pin your “position hopes” on for big profit. In any event it was predicated all off of the setup of a higher open that failed miserably, rolled over, and took the longs to the woodshed … “thank you for your eagerness to buy the open”! 

Here an hour before Noon in New York, it seems the deranged political Left in the country is escalating nervousness on Wall Street; too be sure, the market was ripe for going lower anyway, especially NDX100 & SP500, which haven’t had a decent bout of selling in many weeks. So, whatever the news … a squirrel farted in D.C. and elites got nervous … whatever … the market was way overdue. Question is, is it the end or just the beginning?

Again, I want to point out what I wrote days earlier about how this ends, or how the correction comes … I’m not some market guru prognosticator, I’m a trader, and in my professional trading life spanning decades, I can tell you flat out it’s the “setup” that matters, not the news. Today, everything on the downside was setup by that higher opening after going lower all night … if you think it was something else, go ahead and believe that at your peril.

You have to be careful of days like today for 2 reasons; 1) the stock indices were ripe for a correction anyway, and 2) the “news”, no matter how perverted and distorted is a “market seller” news event. Combine the 2, and outside of the occasional bottom picker, the question isn’t who is gonna buy on the way down, the question is who is looking to sell on any rally cuz they are “caught” long at higher prices; do they panic at the end of the day or do they hold on to Obama’s “hope”? We’re gonna find out in a few short hours. Right now, here around Noon, things are slowing down some as both buyers and sellers try and figure out the dynamics of their positions and where their “puke points” are if things turn south.

Here in the early P.M. in New York, buying interest has dried up and the market is drifting lower; now only about a couple of dozen points off the low. It feels like new lows are in store for later, but who knows? Market feels to me like there are still people stuck at higher prices hoping for a rally they may not get. In any case, the setup going forward is simple: the Dow30 isn’t going to rally hard until we get a lower opening. What that means is price “X” bid at 09:30 and then lower from there anywhere from 20 – 70 points before ““fugetaboutit”! [“Hmm, did I mention ‘setup’ before”?] So far, there hasn’t been anything close to “capitulation” in any of the indices on the downside … not saying it has to be “end of the world” selling, but nobody has really panicked yet … I expect something like that on the open here in the next few days.

It’s after 2 P.M., and the market is making new lows; that means, no attempts to buy it down here because the risks are too great, and there isn’t enough time for the market to do anything [probability wise] on the upside; not sayin’ it can’t ever do it, just that the probability of it moving higher of any significance is very low after a 2 P.M. low. “Looks like the chickens are finally coming home to roost; about frickin’ time”!

While we made money today and the Dow30 ETF gets “monkey hammered”, I hope many of you can take today’s action and see why when the market starts to hit a new low for the day after 2 P.M., pretty much only bad things happen … in any event, the risk/reward equation is not a good one. Below the chart.

 

Late in the day is no time to scalp; it only leads to trouble cuz there is no time left if you are wrong and wish to continue to get the loss back. If you get 2 or 3 scalps down here that don’t work, now you are in trouble with no time to make anything back; not an enviable position to be in, so don’t do it. Remember, actions have consequences that manifest themselves quickly in trading, and if you start tripping over the wrong dominos it can have a very sad ending.

Finally, take away the Easter Holiday Monday fireworks, the BS French Fry election stupidity, the “vapors” overnight ramps up on nothing, and the last 30 minutes of the day ramp, and in the last month and a half, there has been 1 day where New York saw the Dow30 actually have a decent trading day on the upside; other than that 1 day, it’s been higher opens and lower prices consistently. Maybe with a capitulation blow off on the downside at or near the open, things will change. Here a half hour to the close, there isn’t anything left to do and I’m calling it a day. Hopefully, the market doesn’t open higher tomorrow and ruin a potentially good trading day; we’ll see.

PAMM/MAMM Spreadsheet directly below.

 

Time for the beach … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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