THE FED IS ENGINEERING THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS

 

“Grab the popcorn as the FED manipulates the SP500!”

Before I get to the insanity of what happened yesterday afternoon, when

financial markets got “shocked” by FED minutes of the last meeting at

information they’ve been given for 3 fucking weeks, I would be remis if I didn’t

comment on the complete “clown show circus” going to happen today cuz it’s

“Jan. 6” … oh yes, right up there with Pearl Harbor, and 9/11 if you dare to

have your intelligence assaulted by Loon Libtards … expect the usual virtue

signaling, pearl clutching, and hyperbole by Libtards who get sent to their

“safe space” when Starbucks is out of raspberry latte … and you somehow

think Vlad or Xi are afraid of this bunch of losers led by “Taliban Joe”?

… Bwahahahaha! FJB!

Now to the FED Lounge Lizards … they caused the problem, now they want to

“soft land” expectations about the asset bubble,so they become uber hawkish

… all the while they will protect the level of the SP500 to stay ABOVE 4500 AT

ALL COSTS … and the battle between 4500 - 4700 is gonna be a B. I. Itch … and

if by chance in the days ahead interest rates on the 10 YR. Treasury climb above

1.79% [currently at 1.71%], and the SP500 does break 4500, watch how fast the

Lounge Lizards led by Spicoli change their tune and suddenly become uber

doves again … don’t worry, they’ll find a reason, and pump it to the blind

sycophants at CNBC & Dumberg, who will vigorously report on it with glee … and

it’ll be time to pump the asset bubble once more to the moon … cuz here’s the

dirty little secret … the FED, no matter what they say, CAN’T RAISE RATES

AGGRESSIVELY, cuz if they do the interest on the federal debt won’t be able to

be paid and the “U.S. of China” defaults … this isn’t my opinion,

IT’S A MATH FACT!

The only way they can stop the rise of asset bubbles, or slow the growth, is to

“talk tough”, and thus hope to take some of the air out of the proverbial

BUBBLE balloon … it won’t work cuz humans panic … and so, either we get a

full blown crash that makes 2008 look like a soft correction, or they cave and

reverse course once the SP500 gives up the 4500 level … and they’ll use the

“Plunge Protection Team” [PPT], CNTRL-P machine that goes “Brrrrrrrr” 24/7/365,

and anything else they can think of to pour hundreds of billions if not trillions into

the CORRUPT FINANCIAL system so 1) zombie corporations can continue to float

debt cheaply to use for stock buybacks, which props prices artificially, and 2) they

can please their masters by not letting stock prices collapse, thus insuring when

they retire from the FED, that the corner office with window views of nice parks

and that 7 digit “consulting fee” will be waiting for them from virus, scumbag

banks … this is the “payback”, the “quid pro quo” when nobody is looking in

the future … buckle up, it’s gonna get interesting beyond belief in the

weeks / months ahead … “cuz make absolutely no mistake about this … the FED

ONLY CARES ABOUT THE LEVEL OF THE SP500 … NOTHING ELSE MATTERS

… NOTHING”!

After seeing yesterday afternoon’s blitzkrieg panic to the downside in everything,

even though plenty of the  Lounge Lizards for days if not weeks have been saying

this, markets acted with surprise at the FED’s hawkish talk … so I knew going to

bed last night that when I woke up early this AM, that most likely SHTF will

happen in the Asian session, and as a result ranges get blown out, and then

everything dies … and as the sun comes up in New York, that’s exactly the

scenario that got played out … gold and oil before Europe had even started have

passed their respective 20 Day Range MA’s, and so what’s left here for the rest of

the day? … “Spoos” getting buffeted around like a ping pong ball around the

close from yesterday, as I’m sure the PPT was active all night long … got to

protect “Stonks” at all costs, and while a few tech stocks get monkey

hammered, it’s the indices that matter, with the SP500 the king

… long live the king.

Meanwhile, after getting mauled yesterday afternoon, this morning in Europe

crude oil goes on a blistering rally that takes it up to $79+ … can’t figure this

out for any reason that’s sane … simply makes no sense … and the parabolic

curve in oil continues to march higher, as oil is up over $11 in 12 days … and

when it ends, look the hell out below, CUZ IT WILL BE FAST & VICIOUS!

It’s NOON in New York, and the criminal open at the NYSE is past us, where the

“Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] shows up and blasts “Stonks” higher, for 2

reasons … 1) protect the downside and change attitudes, and 2) to bail out

scumbag banks who have been buying the selling since yesterday’s close

… cuz after all, how’s an Apparatchik supposed to get rich with trading “skim”

if the banks aren’t allowed to make money! … yes, that would truly be a shame

wouldn’t it? … do they give you that deal?

The 10 YR. Treasury hasn’t moved at all this morning, holding onto rate gains

from yesterday … crude oil I haven’t even looked at cuz it went past its 20 Day

Range MA before the day even began … gold a nightmare from the long side in

a rate hike environment, and if the 10YR rate can’t move, then gold doesn’t move

either … that leaves the ‘Spoos”, where since the NYSE open has been a joke

… welcome to manipulation central! … meanwhile crypto exhibiting all of the

classic symptoms of the “dead cat bounce” from yesterday’s debacle to the

downside in BTC … what a “shitshow circus” that was … BTC simply mirroring

the SP500 almost tick for tick, and there’s very little interest in buying … there’s

panic selling, and then there’s short covering that spooks the rats … and that’s it!

What would the day be like without a DOUBLE REVERSAL in “Spoos” .. cuz after

yesterday’s shitfest, government manipulators gotta be manipulating to shape

attitudes towards “Stonks” … never mind inflation and higher rates, there’s the

PPT with the CNTRL-P machine … it works until it doesn’t … these people should

be in jail, and the fact they aren’t and do it with impunity, tells you everything you

need to know about the most corrupt financial system ever seen in history … just

hope & pray you don’t get caught in it when it ends, cuz what can’t be sustained

won’t be! … “the “U.S. of China” has a date with financial hell coming up … it’s

not a question of “IF” but “WHEN” … my guess is, when both the Ruskies &

ChiComs back their respective currencies with gold, the gig is up in the U.S.

… and that day is coming faster than you think”!

And like clockwork, once the double reversal is put in and the shorts fucked in

“Spoos”, there’s nothing left to do … as I have said many times, double

reversals almost always go NOWHERE once the second side is put it cuz the

order books are wiped clean … first the longs get screwed, then it’s the slow

crawl to the top for the shorts to take it … well, in the shorts … with both sides

of the order book wiped clean, what’s left? … exactly what the PPT manipulators

like to see, cuz they hate all specs!

Only one algorithm buy signal today in the SP500 for the Turnkey PAMM

… UP SLIGHTLY.

The “Spoos” the only thing to trade today, since both oil & gold “verboten” before

the day even began cuz they overran their respective 20 Day Range MA’s … the

spread today in oil was good to OK, seeing 2 cents to 3 cents most of the U.S.

session … why the hell they couldn’t do this the other day is beyond me, but today

with a $3.35 range, all of a sudden they discover religion? … WTF! … but it

doesn’t matter, as yet again there’s nothing here but serious chop once the U.S.

day gets going, and now crude is off over $1 from its high made much earlier

… gold has seen about a $6 - $7 range for the last 6 - 7 hours and is caught in

some serious bullshit chop with rates not moving one iota today but simply sitting

after “bigly & yuge” gains yesterday … again the 20 Day Range breached to the

upside before the New York day even began, and since then it’s been nothing

short of pure bullshit.

The algo signal in the “Spoos” came right after the low, and since the algo was in

scalp mode, that’s what I did … not very happy with Turnkey’s thieving HFT LP,

who stuck us with a half an index point slippage on liquidation … thieves, pure

and simple, but whaddaya gonna do? … it’s not like I don’t know who they are

… what pisses me off is Turnkey trying to tell me they are the very best … right,

sure they are, what a frickin’ joke … and after that it was hours to the next algo

signal which didn’t come until after the DOUBLE REVERSAL HIGH had been

made … knowing what I know about double reversals, why would anybody get

long on a signal that’s relatively close to the high when there’s a good sized

probability price isn’t gonna go anywhere … and that’s what happened, as the

algo signal never became reality cuz there was no confirmation of further price

gain … it just kept sliding lower … and now here we are in mid afternoon, with

the “Spoos” collapsing back down to “UNCH-ED” on the day … we got the

“dead cat bounce”, but even that can’t hold cuz rates aren’t budging an inch

from yesterday’s gains in yield on the 10YR Treasury … and if you need live

10 YR quotes, either Bloomberg or Trading View have them for free  … right

now, eyes are fixated on the 10 YR. and whether or not the 1.79% yield gives

way to upwards towards 2% … if that happens, gold is gonna get mauled, and

the PPT will have its work cut out for itself keeping the “Spoos” from sinking

… and with rates doing NADA today, gold has nowhere to go … can’t rally

can’t break, and all we see is order flow chop from the scumbag bullion

dealer banks front running futures … that’s it, and there simply is no impetus

for gold to move, so if you trade it today, you’re risking dollars to make

pennies, which is not ideal to say the least … that’s why I was in the “Spoos”,

although trading conditions haven’t been that good … Turnkey’s LP’s have

boosted the spread by 0.1 - 0.2 index points and slippage is an issue today,

as I found out first hand … again the thieving, but tell me something I don’t

already know.

Meanwhile, crypto is a train wreck … trading conditions are terrible, with almost

no interest in BTC, and that makes trading it very tough, cuz nobody is reaching

for either bids or offers until they see the SP500 move, and then all of a sudden

everybody and their brother wants in and BTC goes up / down $150 … meanwhile,

nothing is really happening and like the “Spoos” the “dead cat bounce”

phenomenon has been achieved … now what, cuz it looks very heavy still, and

when this shit decides to go lower, it doesn’t mess around, as yesterday

afternoon proves … unless price starts to rally soon back over 45K, BTC looks

set to challenge the 40K area and the sell stops that go with it … as for today,

though, there isn’t anything here to trade … no trades today for “The Syndicate”

in crypto … if it ain’t there, you simply wait … doesn’t matter if you like it or not,

you wait, cuz if you don’t you hand money to “whales” and LP’s churning price

at your expense … that doesn’t get anybody to “millionairehood”!

Tomorrow is another “oh joy, oh fun” NFP Idiocy Day … can’t hardly wait

… hopefully shit behaves overnight so I got something to trade when I get up

…  outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎

… Onward & Upward!

-vegas

FUBAR NATION

 

“No worries … “Taliban Joe” says 2020 is gonna be a great year!”

The “U.S. of China” is corrupt & perverse to the core … why would you think

“markets” [cough, bullshit, cough] are immune to the corruption?

… NEWS FLASH: “they ain’t” … another financial, criminal open at the NYSE

to feed the Chipmunks … and then comes reality.

Although I’ve been sayin’ this forever, it’s nice to see the truth finally start to

dribble out … everything the Nazi’s did, after the war was over all the western

powers wanted to know was how did you control such a smart group of people

for so long and completely subjugate them to governments will? … directly

below from ZH in case you missed it:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/governments-admit-using-mass-

formation-psychosis-tool-population-control

I turn my attention today to the “Spoos”, as Turnkey can’t seem to manage a

3 cent spread in crude oil to save their stinkin’ lives … oh wait, I forgot, they

have nothing to do with anything and they’re just innocent bystanders … that’s

the storyline and it’s bullshit … we’ll never find out, but my money says they’re

getting part of the excess “skim” from slippage and high spreads from favored

HFT’s and/or banks, and that about 90%+ of all the fills they do, get filled by the

same one or two firms … I say this cuz they don’t give a shit if any client gets

ripped off from these jackals … you would think they would care, but they don’t

… so why don’t they care? … cuz they’re getting part of the “skim”, and that’s

why nothing ever changes … so, until oil goes back to 3 cents and stays there,

I look elsewhere cuz I’m not gonna feed these assholes free money.

So, how do you determine what the real spread is in any market? … EASY

PEEZEE: watch the spread for a full 5 minutes … whatever the highest amount is,

that’s your spread I GUARANTEE IT, and all the other numbers are delusional

bullshit put there to give the illusion there’s an actual market … there isn’t,

there’s ONLY THEIR MARKET, and since none of this on the MT4 / MT5 is “open

order book” [OOB], like over in crypto, nobody has any idea whether or not

they’re getting ripped off by a bunch of fucking thieves … cuz with ZERO

TRANSPARENCY, it’s THE guaranteed safest bet in the casino that traders are

going to get hosed.

We’re 3 days into 2022, and already 2 out of the 3 in crude has been a frickin’

spread mess, and over in “Spoos” that market is losing VIX faster than Biden’s

poll numbers … and I’m getting the uneasy feeling that what I said about

“Spoos” in an earlier blog post is coming true … namely, “Stonks” got nowhere

to go for the entire winter, and we are starting to see that as the 20 Day Range

MA is starting to get crushed … not just in “Spoos” but in crude as well … both

down between 20% - 30% and continuing to fall as the FED makes certain NOT

to let “Stock Bellies” go “Thelma & Louise” … how about just drift and do

nothing? … it might be too early to tell, but it’s starting to feel that way … over

in crude, we’re starting to get that parabolic price rise again, and we all know

how that ends … every time the same way … quite frankly, I got a very uneasy

feeling about both markets right now, sitting here watching the “Spoos” do

absolutely nothing, here within an hour of NOON in New York.

I had this feeling yesterday, and after the close I ran some statistical numbers

on approximately 20 markets, measuring a ton of metrics and then stacking

everything up against the crypto algorithm specifically designed for crude

… the purpose being, “where is acceptable VIX hiding for my trading and in

which markets”? … and of course, if VIX can stay relatively healthy, even low for

a while, that’s OK, just NOT so low algorithm parameters & metrics are useless

… that’s a pretty wide range, and yet, given the disaster that is FX there aren’t

that many markets that come to our aid … specifically, are there any markets

that escaped the “VIX Thelma & Louise” beating seen since the middle

of December?

Remember, we can’t trade ETH [Ethereum] at Turnkey, or Bitcoin, simply cuz the

spreads are horrific when the coins move … horrific doesn't do it justice they’re

that bad … FX pairs a complete joke, where they only actually trade 1 or 2 days

per month … other “Stock Bellies” indices like the DAX40 are too inconsistent in

terms of range AND spread … both a nightmare to navigate at Turnkey … even

now, crypto is losing VIX quickly, and if the “Spoos” go “sleepytime” and oil

continues to misbehave, not from a market perspective, but from the perspective

of getting ripped off by Turnkey, then what the hell is there I can trade?

And the numbers kind of surprised me after I ran them … cuz through it all, of all

markets, gold held its own the best, and performs exceptionally well with the

adapted crypto algorithm used in oil … if you use the metric of $0.10 = 1 PIP, then

gold’s spread is between 1.5 - 2.5 PIPS, with a 20 Day Range MA most of the time

over weeks and months between $18 - $25 … if EURUSD, or GBPUSD, or even

USDJPY had a consistent range of 180 - 250 PIPS per day, and a spread of 2 PIPS,

would you trade it? … hell yes you would! … and this metric is about the same as

crude oil, but cheaper to trade … and over the last 3 weeks, has only lost to the

Holidays about 10% of its 20 Day Range MA … that’s the best of any market I ran!

… CONSISTENCY of range & spread is vital … and it’s the key reason central

banks manipulate VIX, cuz it’s so effective in shaping attitudes about markets

and direction, while at the same time enriching their BFF scumbag bank LP’s,

from which they get their “skim” … you look at crude oil today, and over the last

hour  and a half, you’d be lucky to get out of the spread if you’ve traded it … and

when these jackals blow the spread out, it becomes exponentially more difficult

to make money, cuz when crude slows down in a heartbeat, it doesn’t mess

around … which begs the question … “Is it easier for crude oil to move 4 OR 5

cents on the bid side, or is it easier for gold to move 25 or 30 cents”? … well,

that’s an easy question to answer, cuz all you got to do is watch it for 5 minutes

and you’ll know the answer … it’s clearly gold that’s the winner, consistently

more of the time than crude … the average M1 in crude has a range most of the

time of between 7 - 9 cents … the average M1 in gold has a range most of the

time of between 40 - 70 cents … and slippage matters more in crude than gold

… now, these values are representative when conditions are normal, not

when SHTF and they have nice moves … in other words, normal trading.

So, starting tonight, I’ll be adding gold back into the PAMM mix using the

adapted crypto algorithm I developed for crude oil … it’s different than the older

version I used for gold, cuz I’ve added some metrics the other didn’t have … and

those make all the difference in the world … cuz I’m not gonna sit here and

simply watch paint dry, whether it’s “Spoos” or oil, and just twiddle my thumbs

wondering when does something happen … and as a side note, I find it

interesting that the FED’s Kashkari’s prediction of 2 rate rises yesterday didn’t

affect gold one bit … could be that REAL INFLATION OF OVER 10%+ doesn’t get

cut much by seeing treasury rates go up 25 or 50 basis points to 2% … and word

on the street is, the FED is getting ready to “reformulate” the CPI & PPI?

… another attempt to hide inflation and fool the masses, but it won’t work!

It’s past NOON in New York, and from a trading perspective, both the “Spoos”

and crude oil are simply a disaster … and it gets no better over in crypto where

ETH is basically DEAD … AN $85 - $90 RANGE FOR THE DAY AFTER 19 HOURS?

… so, what does a crypto trader do when ranges collapse? … EASY PEEZEE: go

back to trading BTC and grind yield out cuz the “vig” is so high … and that’s

what I’ve done today for “The Syndicate”, and via multiple trades in BTC, we’re

UP APPROXIMATELY 0.3%.

For the Turnkey PAMM there were no trades today … a spread mess in oil

[Thanks Turnkey!] and the “Spoos” dead in the water with no VIX and no range

worth mentioning … early afternoon in New York, and the range is 21 index

points from the tips … yea, knock yourself out with this shit … what a frickin’

joke. Hopefully by adding gold, I got something that I can at least scalp using

the algo … we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

…  outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas