Back to my lovable, fluffy teddy bear cantankerous self, defeating some flu bug
once again … and looking at gold over the last few days while I was bedridden,
what did I miss? … “Nuttin’ Honey” is the easy answer … for cryin’ out loud, can
you move at all, or is it just run stops off order flow, and cleaning out the order
book each and every day? … can’t keep it below about 1923 and can't keep it
above 1940 … back and forth … race up / race down even faster, then race up like
somebody’s pants are on fire, then die on the vine … now what?
Two algorithm buy signals today that got blown through faster than a tornado
through an Indiana trailer park … throw in subpar ranges and it makes it even
worse cuz the panic is definitely there, both on the upside and downside … and
don’t expect it to get any better before next Wednesday’s Lounge Lizard’s
decision on interest rates … the last 10 trading days have been complete shit from
a trading action perspective … reversals & double reversals that go nowhere, and
we sit right near where we were 2 weeks ago! … can’t rally, can’t break … beautiful
only if you’re a bullion dealer.
What makes this type of trading action nefarious, are the facts that 1) it only
moves for a scant few minutes on spikes from Hell, and 2) the vast majority of the
day is nothing more than bullshit chop, in which you get to fight the spread if you
want to get out, and there’s always the issue of slippage … given that scenario, and
the fact that moves either come out of nowhere or straight off the bottom, and you
should realize that this is pure manipulation at its finest … screwing stops is what
they do … as an added bonus, if you happen to get caught in either a “false
positive” signal, or simply overstay your welcome, there’s no way to make back
the loss anytime soon unless you get lucky … luck is not a strategy.
Now, the version 2 trading algorithm does extremely well in a low volatility
environment, but you can’t expect it to do well with a high spread + unknown
slippage … much better are the major FX dollar pairs, lately seeing a drop off in
VIX as measured by the 20 Day Range MA’s … I would include in this universe,
EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, & AUDUSD … USDJPY is another universe entirely,
and the slippage in here is massive, right along with phantom bid/offer quotes
… in other words, you don’t get what you think you’re getting when you trade
USDJPY … you might as well be trading silver.
During the most active part of today’s trade, which is mid morning Europe to the
London Fix at 11 AM EST plus an hour or two if things are semi active or better,
the “Trading Ratios” [TR] for all 4 were well above 2.5 … the same cannot be said
of gold … take out a couple of “blitzkriegs” to the upside that only lasted a
handful of minutes each, and all you got for the entire day is chop, chop, and
more frickin’ chop … uglier bullshit you’ll never see, especially since much higher
spread plus potential slippage makes it far worse than normal chop in other
markets.
Quite frankly, it’s hard for me to see how FX can get any lower ranges than what
we’ve seen over the last 10 trading days … while AUDUSD has been somewhat
normal, the others have rarely been this tight … and yet, the algorithm still
models price behavior extremely well … gold almost as good, but again you have
to consider the costs when trading gold when the position you take is wrong
… it’s quite high to say the least … clearly, we need a “Plan B” when gold goes
dormant and simply farts around chopping traders up into pieces … pick any of
the 4 and you’ll do well, or simply stay with ‘em if you like FX but don’t like gold.
Today a nightmare of chop … no trades for the PAMM today, and if gold stays like
this Monday / Tuesday [high probability] cuz of the FED interest rate decision on
Wednesday, I’ll switch over to EURUSD or one of the others, but probably
EURUSD … cuz I’ve been sick all week, I haven’t been able to finish the manual for
the algorithm like I planned … I’ll get the majority done this weekend, but I don’t
think it will be ready come Sunday … cya all on Sunday for the blog update.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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