“How to solve that problem itch!!”
Wasn’t my first choice as a solution to that problem itch, but it does show the
lengths anybody could go through from a logical perspective … after all, what
makes humor so “Hoover Dam” funny, is that it’s always based partly in truth!
… and so we come upon financial derivatives trading, where we play detective
and find out that we aren’t any longer in a universe that makes any sense at all
… bad news is good news, and good news is bad news in some kind of Orwellian
nightmare where nobody seems to know what the rules are, or at the very least
they ain’t informing you!
Adding to the discomfort level, 2 key elements almost always are present among
those who constantly lose money … 1) they figure incorrectly that once you got
the puzzle solved, it’s gonna always stay that way … and while that may have been
the case before governments started actively intervening in markets, it sure as
Hell hasn’t been the case since the financial crisis of 2008 … pre 2008 and post
2008 are two different trading worlds … 2) people don’t really understand how
markets work … they want to give the benefit of the doubt to the concept of
“honest & fair”, but that’s all fairy tale bullshit … would you like a nice cup of hot
cocoa and a graham cracker while you trade?
Trading is like constantly peeling an onion for answers to questions you don’t
even know if they are the right ones … you’ll know soon enough if they are wrong
or faulty … but from that information, you continue to peel this onion and gain
understanding about what really matters and what doesn’t … you mentally plot
the “what ifs”, code for them, and test … lastly, the coded universe of MT4 [mql4]
and MT5 [entirely different, which was the dumbest decision Metatrader ever
made] have achieved a vast reservoir of just about anything / everything thought
of by computer scientists, physicists, statisticians, math whiz kids, and traders of
all stripes who can code … there are literally thousands of coded indicators people
can search for … sure, it takes an enormous amount of time, simply cuz nothing is
ever dropped right on your plate the first time you look for it! … and after you
search hi & lo for weeks, spending hundreds of hours looking, you find it and
download it off the internet, either as an ex4 OR mql4 source code file, and put it
into MT4 or MT5 … and within 2 minutes you realize it’s a piece of shit and doesn’t
do what you thought it should … back to the drawing board.
I know with certainty the “hows and whys” of market mechanics … the
“scumbaggery & fuckery” of the “pit traded” era have only been transferred to
the electronic forum … there ain’t anything new under the sun! … in a sane
universe we’d be asking where the Hell the regulators are at, but we all know the
answer to that one … they’re waiting for their next skim “kickback” payment via
crypto.
In addition to working on the trading manual this weekend, I also did another
statistical run from several different vantage points … given algorithm parameters
and assigning them “rankings”, and introducing formulas for risk, which up to
now have been mostly of the “eyeball” type, have yielded some surprising results
… what you think should be, ain’t … and what you think has no chance, is the
“winner winner, chicken dinner” … let’s look at these volatile markets, shall we?
… unless it’s got New York session ranges above $3, crude oil makes no sense on
any cost or risk level … you’re simply throwing money away … USDJPY in its
present form of insanity, is as bad as gold and/or silver on a stop hunt; as well,
slippage is a major issue, and when this market decides to slow down and die, it
doesn’t mess around … other FX major dollar pairs are acceptable, and it wholly
depends on bid/offer spread plus slippage where you trade it … Coiness is rather
“iffy” on this, and I’m pretty sure there are plenty of other houses with better
overall conditions … LOW VIX isn’t a problem any longer for the algorithm, cuz
I’ve solved for that issue … but LOW VIX demands razor thin spreads and very
little, if any, slippage … take that away and LOW VIX will yield poor results
… Gold [XAUUSD] is great when it moves consistently … it ain’t so great when it
dies and goes into a shell … now the high relative spread + slippage becomes
an even bigger problem than before … and lately, gold’s trading action has been
anything but ideal … “blitzkreig” moves in minutes, followed by nothing but
chop … “Stock Bellies”, and here is where the surprise is … even with
occasional slippage, the DOW30 during the NYSE cash session [9:30 AM EST -
4 PM EST], hands down beats the pants off of any other market in 1) low spread
versus 20 Day Range MA, 2) is a member of the U.S. major indices that operate
inside the “88/6/6” paradigm, which no other market or group of markets enjoy,
and 3) lower relative risk compares favorably with other markets when SHTF.
Quite frankly, many prefer to trade the emini “Spoos” over the DOW30 … it all
depends on spread + slippage … at Coinexx for the PAMM, the DOW30 has been
acceptable [so far, knock on wood], but the SP500 CFD has not treated us well at
all … spread too “Hoover Dam” high, and slippage unacceptable … that doesn’t
mean where you trade it’s the same … or maybe you trade futures [emini and/or
micro], which is fine.
So, the bottom line in all of this “hocus pocus, financial derivative mound of
heaping bullshit”, is that no matter how you wanna slice the pie, when all is said
and done over time, DOW30 / SP500 ranks first for trading profitability with
relative lower risk, FX dollar majors [OTHER THAN USDJPY] rank second, gold
ranks third, and at the bottom is crude oil … granted, the line between gold and
FX dollar pairs is “thin”, but it’s there nonetheless … there is also the issue of
how many signals a particular market usually gives during a “normal” day … and
while this can and does change greatly depending on levels of VIX, lately over the
last 5 - 10 weeks, gold and crude oil have severely disappointed as ranges and
VIX have dropped … FX not so much, but some … “Stock Bellies” have dropped
also, but the level of signals is still higher than the other markets.
Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s of selected markets for the upcoming
week.
click on table to enlarge
Wednesday sees the Lounge Lizards create havoc, and no doubt no matter what
they do, markets will react violently … but no matter what they do, it’s hard for me
to see gold and crude oil doing anything, up and until they pause or pivot from
higher rates … a lot of bullish thinking is already priced into these 2 markets … I
think there’s a greater probability of FX and “Stock Bellies” moving at a faster clip.
I simply can’t ignore the data … DOW30 will be my first choice for trading each
day going forward … I’d rather it be the “Spoos”, but Coinexx’s idiotic LP’s in the
SP500 can’t get their shit together, and I’m not handing them free money… if
equities are dead, then there’s a good chance nothing else is moving either
… gold simply needs to get up off its ass and trade, something it seems not to
want to do lately … no signals or just one signal per day is bullshit … onto the
week!, and during this upcoming week I’ll be writing about the upcoming version 2
trading algorithm … “you won’t ever need anything else, and while of course it’s
entirely possible to lose on any given trade for whatever reason, if you follow the
rules of the algorithm, it’s very hard for me to see how anybody can lose money
trading … very hard! … stay tuned”.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
