“Oh Oracle of all market knowledge, where is gold tomorrow at 21:01!?”
You can pretty much count on one thing happening tomorrow at 2 PM EST … no,
not that gold is gonna moon shot or “Thelma & Louise” … no, not that the FED
will thread the needle and make markets happy … no, what happens tomorrow for
sure, is that at 2 PM EST Turnkey’s MT4 trading platform will go dark, until the
scumbag LP’s decide to turn the juice back on and allow traders access again to
the casino. I can hear it now … 1) “we experienced a glitch” , 2) “internet ports
were compromised and the system shut down to reboot”, or 3) “it’s not our fault”!
With “crazy day” almost here, earlier today Super Mario over in ECB territory,
announced another in a long line of “whatever it takes” schemes to pump the EU.
I’ve lost count on which iteration we’re currently on, but what markets are
focused on is the call for MOAR! QE … and that spells lower global debt yields,
which lends a positive tone for gold … not that it matters much, cuz the FED will
steal the show tomorrow when they unveil their stupidity.
As the New York session begins, Trump tweets about Super Mario, and “big girl
panties” everywhere are getting wadded up in a knot … no doubt, this is behind
the sudden activity in gold … and once again, the “POLS & Apparatchik trading
paradigm” proves itself, cuz nothing happens in markets without them … how
this latest iteration plays out I haven’t a clue, and neither does anyone else.
Quite frankly, I’ve never seen in my entire trading career, which spans decades,
markets that are soooooooo convinced the FED will aggressively ease, and
everybody and their brother are positioned accordingly … never … sure, the Twits
at the FED are clueless, but they are in a “no win” situation and can’t even come
close to matching market expectations for easing … do they panic and pander to
markets and cut by 50 basis points? … if they do, they will be harshly criticized,
especially if XI & Trump come to some sort of trade deal at the end of the month
and set off an asset bubble with the appropriate inflation … whoops! … so I don’t
see how the market avoids a “bigly & yuge” buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Gold by far is the least appreciated & undervalued of all the asset classes, so
even a small move here worldwide to move into gold from other assets will have
a very large effect on price … but, the entire world is already long, while it
appears scumbag bullion dealers are short … there is no way in hell the bullion
dealer banks don’t know what the FED is gonna do … they know, cuz they’ve
been told one way or another … bottom line is quite clear: “unless you believe
the FED stiffs their BFF’s, OR some bullion banks are going under, gold gets
stuffed tomorrow on FED easing disappointment … and even if they do cut by
25 basis points, it won’t be enough cuz 4 rate cuts are already priced in … I don’t
see any other scenario that makes any sense whatsoever in the short term”. Only
a 50 basis point cut would send gold skyrocketing, but hand the FED even more
problems in the near future, not the least of which is credibility, which at this
point is pretty close to ZERO.
And everything has just gotten “short circuited” by Trump’s new found enemy
the E.U., & Super Mario in particular … quite frankly, I don’t know how anyone
can position themselves in this “shitshow circus” and expect a happy ending.
As a professional trader, I just got to admit I’m at a loss for words here … we’re in
the “Twilight Zone”, where no matter how stupid or inane markets behave,
minutes later the tides shift … make no mistake, none of us can compete with the
banks attempting to scalp … their “slippage meters” are set on double MAX “fuck
the customer”, and their computer systems operate in nanoseconds while ours
operate in milliseconds … this is nuts, and not in a good way.
Given the route of trajectory of global bond yields, which makes
“Thelma & Louise” look like a slow walk to the bottom of the cliff, gold still
meeting stiff resistance at 1350 … at least so far, I don’t see any resolve from the
scumbag banks that would indicate they’re “Bullion Wall of Selling” has lessened
in intensity … this could change in a heartbeat, but for now their resolve is there
to sell.
It appears markets are interpreting Super Mario’s BS, as the clarion call and
“cover” for Spicoli to cut rates tomorrow, maybe even aggressively. Bond yields
are plummeting, stocks everywhere are soaring, and gold is above 1350 and
climbing … in a nutshell, it’s panic time the day before the FED, as markets
appear to be pricing in not only “dovishness”, but “uber dovishness” bordering
on the end of the world as finance knows it … next up will be predictions of the
U.S. 10 YR. Note below 0%, and the dawn of negative interest rates in the U.S.
… “attention Sheeple of ‘Murica: are you ready to pay the bank to keep money in
your checking account”?
Adding to today’s pile of unpredictability, even the “Chuckleheads” bought early
and are now seeing profits … like I said, “Twilight Zone” stuff is all around us.
When emotions cool off, will gold back off from bank selling, or do we sit here and
chop above 1350 … so far, since the Trump tweet, there have been no algorithm
buy signals, simply cuz gold has not corrected.
And just like that, Trump tweets “good news” on the China trade deal scam
… and gold tanks $5 faster than a rock hits the ground from the 100th floor. So
here we are … now what? … if this is for real [big if], how does the FED cut rates
tomorrow knowing they could be fueling “bigly & yuge” the asset bubble of all
time, namely the SP500, to heights truly ridiculous before it bursts? … “well,
there’s $10+ per OZ. you didn’t need from an hour ago when you couldn’t get
enough … been at this rodeo before, and it never ends well”!
So, updating again, here we are lickity split busting below 1340 after once again,
the “Comex Con Game” gets played on gold bulls, iteration # [in the millions]
with news from the latest Ponzi scheme front, the China trade deal scam. Get
used to this for the rest of the Trump presidency, cuz it’s never going away, and
China ain’t ever going to make a deal that harms them one iota [or Yuan, take
your pick] … but now the manipulators have a bright, shiny new tool they’ll use at
will to 1) keep stocks propped up no matter what, and 2) suppress gold from
going higher … “Oh, good times are back again”!
Meanwhile over in Hong Kong, during the night session of trading, the Hang
Seng has gone ballistic … some out of this world algorithm buy signals
generated in the H33HKD, trading at Coinexx with 1 - 3 point bid/offer spread
[major kudos to them, they never blew out the spread when the news hit!] … then
there’s Turnkey, bumping along with a 24 index point spread and expecting
people to trade it … fools.”What can I say, they refuse to be competitive.”.
In addition, USDCNH [offshore Yuan, a/k/a Renminbi] at Turnkey back at 5 - 6 PIP
bid/offer spread … yup, it was a Turnkey scam … I said yesterday not to trust
them, and I was right on the money … just another “bait & switch” from them.
Well, events today certainly have taken the wind out of the sails of long gold
position holders … and given stock bulls some breathing room as well … how
many times do I have to repeat this? … we are in the age of
“Pols & Apparatchiks”, and the trading paradigm is nothing more than what they
say, when they say it, and NOTHING ELSE! … position yourself and HODL [hang
on for dear life], and you’re toast … burnt toast … cuz markets move on what
they say, and only what they say … your “fun-dur-mentals” don’t mean shit.
And as if there’s no end to the disruptive news items today, there’s more to add
to the fire … this time, after screwing over long gold holders, now it’s elevator up
on more rumors flying around. Thanks, I’ll pass.
Turning to more mundane things, like actual trading, what is it I’m supposed to
do in this veritable “news buffet”, the day before the most important FED meeting
evahhhhhhhhh!? … believe me, most traders wish they had stayed in bed this
morning, rather than get whipsawed … and here comes another one … Trump
asking if he can “demote” Spicoli as FED chairman?... gold pops, natch … “what
episode of the Twilight Zone”am I living in exactly”? … this is unreal … this is
more unreal the day before a FED meeting … make no mistake, Spicoli is getting
“messages” sent his way to cut rates or else!! I may not be the smartest guy on
earth, but I’m not the dumbest either, and to step into this “shitshow cricus” and
try and trade gold now? … gimme a break folks, I’m here to make money, not to
see how fast I can accumulate capital gains losses. Literally stunning
developments today … “do I have to wrestle every alligator in the swamp at once,
or can I just deal with one at a time”? … geesh!
Tomorrow of course is FED day … my blog will be up early, then an update after
the NYSE close … fireworks start [I think] at 2 PM EST with the interest rate
decision. This looks to be a stellar clusterfark of epic proportions coming our
way tomorrow … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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