REJOICE! … IT’S FRIDAY!

 

“Maybe the dog realizes it’s an NFP Friday!”

Oh yes, another NFP Friday … oh joy, oh fun, as the Department of Unicorns 

& Fairy Tales releases seasonally quadruple adjusted waitress & bartender 

employment numbers this morning at 8:30 AM EST … and if it’s like usual 

NFP Friday’s, we’ll get 10 minutes of “TNT”, quickly followed by the rest of 

the day “Crickets” … “quite frankly, I’m not feeling the vibe, so that today’s 

report is nothing more than a wad of warm spit to markets everywhere … just too 

many other concerns at the moment for this number to matter … maybe wage 

growth, or hourly earnings inside the report can shake things up, but I think it’s 

gonna have to be sigma misses to matter”.

And that takes us to Friday position squaring, and more than likely chop, 

more chop, and then mercifully it closes … could be all wet, but again today all 

eyes are on the oil complex and stock indices … what’s OPEC gonna do with 

the Ruskies & announced production cuts, and can the SP500 NOT crash into 

the weekend? … outside of that, the usual “Brexit” bullshit infects Europe and 

traders await next week for some British closure.

Oil traders look to the OPEC meeting in Vienna for some market guidance, 

although I’m not really sure who takes these assclowns seriously anymore 

… “if their lips are moving, they’re lying”, is more than likely the best approach 

to take, when one of the Apparatchiks strolls to the microphone to wax 

eloquent … bottom line is that they’ll say anything while pumping double 

MAX, and hope you don’t notice.

Take everything before the NFP numbers, and everything 30 minutes directly 

after the NFP numbers, and throw it away … noise not worth bothering with 

or commenting on … since then? … 2+ hours in, and gold’s got about a $3 and 

change range, doing nothing but inching higher then slamming lower … “WTF 

is anybody supposed to do with this”? … it’s not a rhetorical question. Gold is 

very slowly working higher, and unless you want to bite off “bigly & yuge” risk, 

your only choice here is to position it and pray like hell the bullion dealers can’t 

tank it … knowing bullion dealers the way I do, I don’t think you want to take 

that bet … better to wait for them to tank it, which they surely will, not chase 

price, and get price you want instead of what they give you.

Afternoon in New York, and while gold remains relatively strong, price action is 

terrible … there is no volumes clearing, price gaps on the M1 from close to open 

the next minute, and liquidity is non existent … if you had to go in and either 

buy or sell a lot of gold, you have my well wishes and prayers. “To be blunt, there 

isn’t anything here … there’s no there there … maybe you can make pennies, but 

you’re risking dollars … in other words a typical NFP Friday, where after 

cleaning out orders on bullshit mystery ticks and gaps higher/lower, the market 

dies and traders hit the exit gate … out the door for the weekend”. Assuming the 

afternoon is going to be worse than the morning post NFP, I’m not at all 

interested in hanging around and playing with dealers.

No trades in the PAMM today, nor in the C2 options signal advisory.

Our C2 options advisory still has bullish positions on in gold, that I put on in 

mid November, and that are working well … I’d like to see some kind of break 

in gold on a “washout”, so I can take advantage of theta decay over the 

Holidays, and a greater appreciation of the gold price into 2019 … when we get 

it, I’ll do more positions in GLD … until then, why enter bullish positions 

unless you get a pullback?

I wrote yesterday about crude oil … I’ll have more in the update blog on 

Sunday. Today is/was a waste in gold … typical Friday, regardless the NFP, 

where there isn’t much interest … after the NFP garbage, not even a $4 range 

from the tips … extremely pathetic trading action … I would say, though, that 

gold is supported at lower levels by the markets perception of a turn in interest 

rates and the end of the hiking cycle the FED is currently on … the market 

now, isn’t even expecting but a 12 bps. hike in rates in all of 2019, and is 

looking for lower rates in 2020 … this is a far cry from the FED’s “dot plot” of 

3 or even 4, 25 bps. rate hikes by the end of 2019 … unless that somehow 

changes in the weeks and months ahead, I don’t see gold getting significantly 

weaker in price.

I’m outta here early today … I can’t take watching the paint dry on the wall, 

with zero going on … whatever gold wants to do, it's gonna do it without me 

... until Sunday mia amigos … Onward & Upward!!

 

Have a great day everybody!!

-vegas

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