THE FX “YO-YO”

 

“Do it right, or you might as well do this!”

A short post today, cuz it’s another U.K. “data dump”, and the FED Minutes 

this afternoon at 2 P.M. EST … and who knows what the Twits at the Eccles 

Building are gonna come up with.

From today’s action, it appears the range “drought” might be over … today’s 

range a little deceiving, cuz 40 - 45 PIPS came from early Asia, and 2 M1’s 

where the first went down 20 PIPS in less than a second, and the second M1, the 

release of disappointing U.K. inflation numbers and the market dumped 40 

PIPS in a millisecond … that being the case, the “so far” range today of 137 

PIPS sees about 100 PIPS of that being untradeable … “it isn’t as great as it 

first appears, although the intraday action is much better than previous days, and 

the market has some “flow” to it that it has noticeably lacked recently … so, I’m 

hopeful this “PIP drought” is over, and Cable can get back to normal”.

As is usually the case, the FED ruins the early afternoon trade with their 

minutes release, so now it’s just a matter of waiting for that … we’ll see if there 

are any surprises. Minutes out ...  a nothing burger; a little short covering in 

Cable due to the fact no news of surprise hawkish interest rate increases, and 

that’s giving some heartburn to those who decided to stay short into the 

release.

Tomorrow sees BOE Chief Honcho Carney speaking at 4 A.M. EST, followed 

quickly at 4:30 A.M. EST by retail sales numbers, and if we can keep the  

“mojo” going, we in all likelihood can have another decent day of trading 

activity.

Two short trades today … PAMM up a few bucks north of 0.1%.

I’m a little surprised the inflation numbers “tanked” the market … they would 

have beat the consensus forecast, if not for lower airline ticket prices, and even 

the clueless math whiz kids at the Bureau of Unicorns & Fairy Tales U.K, admit 

it’s a seasonal decline every year when Easter comes early … so, it is what it is, 

but it could be the source of the large retracement seen since it came out.

As we’ve seen lately, being long this market can get you decapitated quickly 

without warning … some of the spikes down off rallies were particularly 

vicious, but I would remind traders, “nothing grows to the sky and nothing goes 

to zero either … and what that means, is somewhere in here [tomorrow, Friday, or 

early next week … a good bet would be the Monday Memorial Day Holiday in the 

U.S.], coming off a low, this stuff is due for one hell of a move higher … I dunno 

what the “news” catalyst will be to light this “dry Christmas tree”, but this market 

is due for a "clean out" on the upside that has some temporary legs lasting longer 

than 10 minutes … however, it’s gonna have to come off a low, and any “open 

higher go higher” scenario early isn’t gonna work … the ‘setup” here is key, and 

it has to catch shorts napping and trap them viciously … so, be very careful about 

remaining short for too long and just assuming it’s moving lower”.

We’ll see what kind of action tomorrow brings, but I was concentrating today 

on watching the “flow” of price as it moved … and noting that it was 10 times 

better than in the last couple of weeks … that’s what we need to see for larger 

intraday ranges, and more importantly better trading opportunities. Again, 

“news” releases dominate the range, and that’s always unfortunate but 

something we simply live with and accept … it isn’t so much the morning stuff 

from the U.K., but the afternoon things from the FED that really distort 

trading on days they are the market’s focus. With the better trading conditions 

comes better trades, and today saw 2, although the first didn’t add much 

… tomorrow should continue that trend. 

All told, let’s hope we’ve seen the last of the “doji” family for a good long while 

… today’s range almost the entire high close to low close range of the previous 

15 trading days! … think about this for a second, and it’s a head shaker! … and 

with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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