HERE WE GO AGAIN

 

“Al Bundy school of trading … hang on until it hurts!”

Up to 9:45 server time [5:45 A.M. EST], everything looked as if it was “smooth 

sailing” into the CPI numbers due out at 8:30 EST … not so, as the Russian 

Ambassador opened his Pie Hole and all hell broke loose on the downside 

… and now, within minutes the DOW30 is down almost 200 points. “Another 

shoe drops, and here we go again with roller coaster trading. Cue up the scumbag 

LP banks to widen spreads when they feel they can and not be indicted, and for 

slippage when you’re late to a trade to be simply awful. In other words, just 

another trading day in the DOW30”!

And of course, not to be outdone by a simpleton Ambassador from Lebanon, 

President Trump weighed in via Twitter with his “two cents”, and now the 

markets are wondering how close to WWIII we actually are, cuz the “Ruskies” 

not only said they would shoot down the missiles, they also said they would 

attack the source of the missiles … “well, won’t this be interesting if they meant 

it, and it wasn’t just posturing bullshit”. In any event, if the CPI number comes 

in “hot”, fueling higher interest rate increases down the road, and we got a 

potential real war brewing, I would think the market is in for some rough 

weather today, up and until this “political theater” gets resolved.

However, we’ve witnessed this kind of BS before, and I would caution that 

until missiles are in the air, Russians and/or Americans actually get killed, 

and/or U.S. ships and planes get hit with some kind of counter strike, it’s all 

“Kabuki Theater”, and being short is apt to prove painful.

Turning to today’s trading … “you want impossible trading conditions? … try 

anticipating Trump tweets and then what the tone is … minutes after his “the 

missiles are coming” tweet, now we’re getting a 100 point rally off the bottom cuz 

he then tweeted “can’t we all just be friends”? … well, that escalated and 

de-escalated quickly didn’t it? … and so it goes”. Next up, CPI in a few minutes.

Yawn on the CPI … “Chipmunk ramp” on the NYSE open … natch, what else 

is new?... as every institutional trading desk in the world front runs opening 

orders to buy … Now what, while we all sit and wait for WWIII?

Only one trade today … PAMM up slightly, nothing of significance.

This entire day a clusterfark of psychotic proportions … where’s the next 

headline from President Trump, Mueller, Russia & Syria, or China gonna hit 

and send the index up or down 50+ points in a second? Well apparently, about 

35 times today, as the “hits” just keep on coming, and the DOW30 acting like it 

wants to go higher, but begging to get “Monkey Hammered” lower.

And, as always these days, our lovable scumbag LP bank’s widening the 

spreads at too many turns in the market to keep track, but directly below 2 

such examples of the dozens I could have picked from … and this doubles the 

difficulty of trading, cuz if you get caught long or short at one of these turn 

tops or bottoms, they make you pay up to liquidate.

 

 

Every day for the last few weeks, I feel like I’m caught in the movie  

“Groundhog Day”; every morning, pre NYSE open we get the “Chipmunk 

ramp”, and then some kind of rally; starting around Noon to 1 P.M. EST, the 

selling starts, and it can be light or downright mind-boggling in scope; this 

carries over into Asia & Europe, and then it’s simply rinse & repeat for 

another day.

And while there are plenty of profitable trades to be had, there’s also plenty of 

traps that can see any trade down 30+ points in a heartbeat … and in a market 

that has no reason in the world to rally given the news, needing dozens of points 

on a long position to get back to even isn’t an enviable position to have … and 

neither is getting your Cashews squeezed by being short either, as the blind side 

ramps higher are just as wicked and deadly.

Quite frankly, unless new highs for the day are either being made or look 

threatened, I don’t want to be long in the New York P.M., cuz when this stuff 

rolls over and the selling takes over, anything can happen on the down side, and 

I do mean anything … and if you get caught in one of these, there’s no limit to 

the pain that might lie directly ahead of you. We have yet to see any early break 

in price in the DOW30 after 10:00 server time to about Noon to 1 P.M. EST. 

… they just aren’t there, and it means every day longs got a decision to make as 

to when to hit the panic button and liquidate, and if they do it at the same time, 

it’s “Thelma & Louise” yet again.

Last 45 minutes of trading, and another 100+ down has just occurred in 9 

minutes, the “talking heads” blaming “hawkish” FED minutes … and this is 

exactly what I’m talking about, cuz there’s no time left to recoup it back, and if 

you’re long, you got no choice but to liquidate or face a potentially brutal close. 

There are no winners in here, only losers who will wait too long to get out and 

then wonder what happened.

So while today basically treads water and adds a tiny amount to PAMM equity, 

this day is/was a trading disaster … risk 10 to make 1 if I ever saw it. 

Tomorrow’s another day, of course, and with it opportunity … I’m outta here 

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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