NOBODY GETS TO SEE THE WIZARD

“Yea well … I clicked my heels 3 times & all I got is sore ankles!”

The only thing left, is to send in the “flying monkeys” … first 4 hours in the bag, and it’s a complete “shit show”, replete with the now obligatory Cable “rumor mill” spikes while EURUSD is in a coma. No less than half a dozen 20 – 30 PIP+ blasts to the upside/downside taking every GBP cross to the woodshed for some “bloodletting”; and of course, add it all up, and the market is nowhere. Everything from PM May being assassinated by ISIS, the “Brexit” deal is imminent [well, not quite], and finally it’s “over and a failure” [well, not quite] … and here we sit at Noon London time, and anybody trading anything has to be in complete shock at the utter lack of a market in anything … it’s been nothing but a panic driven rumor mill, no doubt inspired and given credence by LP banks who pass rumors to corporate clients right before they front-run their orders.

And for you doubters out there, just remember the $3.5 billion Dollar notional order to buy GBPUSD via HSBC, that HSBC traders got caught front-running to the tune of an $8.5 million-dollar profit at the corporation’s expense, just a few months ago. Sure, they got caught, and got fined $100 million … big whoop … they do this every single frickin’ day multiple times … pay the fine, fire a few traders, it’s back to biz … now STFU and leave us alone.

Meanwhile, people are starting to notice the obvious; to wit, the following ZH headline [linked below], about how one bank dealing desk has labeled today as “headline havoc”.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-06/pound-tumbles-amid-brexit-chaos-headline-havoc

Cuz I got a news flash for you folks; there isn’t anybody with one functioning brain cell trading at the moment … it’s simply corporate order flow and dealers sticking it to them … and until the “Brexit” negotiation insanity is over and done with one way or the other, EURGBP is a complete hostage to these “out-of-nowhere” spikes that aren’t confined to simply a few PIPS; you get caught in one of these, and your stop is filled at the extreme price … and now, you got no way of getting it back. This is like going into a darkened 90 MPH wind tunnel and peeing, and then hoping for the best … cuz when this “Brexit” crap breaks, the algorithm is going to be “Zero, Zilch, & Nada” help to you if you’re on the wrong side. The good news? It will be over soon, and trading can resume again with something else to worry about.

Almost closing time in Europe, and while the LP’s have settled down with front-running corporate orders and jacking Cable up/down, the EURUSD has quietly slid below 1.18000 to put some slight pressure on EURGBP. But quite frankly, I could care less about the Euro at the moment; the full-fledged danger here is Cable, cuz the market is sitting on top of a very big truck of dynamite, and it’s gonna blow, one way or the other, and expect it to be very messy. So, while the algorithm is very good at what it does, it has no idea of what is going to happen shortly. My guess here is that it’s going to be Cable negative, or otherwise the market would have heard something about this slam-dunk, done deal, that is increasingly looking “iffy” … and if that happens, Cable will be in the car with “Thelma & Louise”, and EURGBP will be “to the moon Alice”, and there’s no way of side-stepping the risk other than leaving it the hell alone.

Everybody is standing in line waiting to see the “Wizard”, but the Munchkins are saying, “sorry, nobody gets to see the Wizard, cuz he’s too busy doing God’s work, and making the world a better place … figure the Brexit shit out on your own”. Well, that’s good advice, but the truth is nobody in the U.K. Gubermint has a clue either … and the silence here at the end of the European day is deafening … they’re stalling for time and grabbing at straws, but it’s “fish or cut bait” time and the clock is ticking … and failure is a real possibility.

I thought at the beginning of the day, right before Europe opened, that all of this would be solved before the close … it hasn’t been, and that in and of itself, says more than anything they can say. It means there is no solution that’s gonna fly. The only other scenario, is that DUP and the other coalition partners of May’s government are playing “hardball”, refusing to accept Brexit conditions until the last minute, in order to get more concessions for their vote. So, bottom line is that this could extend into Friday; but if it does, I would expect Cable to get punished … which begs the question, how low is low for bad news, and how bad does it have to be to pummel GBP further? And you wonder why anybody trading EURGBP was absent today?

This is the sixth day in a row of EURGBP looking to close the day within about 30 PIPS of each other, and right now it looks like a small “doji” day on the daily candlestick chart; this entire process is the typical government “shit show” you can almost “take to the bank” when it comes to either making a decision or solving a problem … this one is no different. The fact that it has caused almost total paralysis in EURGBP should be no surprise … the problem is, you simply don’t know when the info is gonna break; the only way you know is when your screen goes berserk.

Hopefully, it gets “solved” one way or another tomorrow; it’s a total bummer sitting here in limbo, watching the market go up one tick down another all day long with very little follow through … cuz if you end up trading it, you’re risking 100 PIPS+ to make whatever … so, no trades today, while we wait for these clowns to do something. Tomorrow sees no data from the U.K., but the E.U. reports GDP for Q3 at 4:00 A.M. EST; this has the potential to move EURUSD if the consensus is off the mark, but the real story are the continuing problems May’s U.K. government has in getting a “deal” with her coalition partners to present to the E.U. next week. Everybody keeps saying this week is “make or break”, so we just have to wait and see what happens … to say tomorrow will be interesting is an understatement; terror filled might be more appropriate. I, for one, will have my ruby slippers on just in case I need them. Onward & Upward!!

 PAMM spreadsheet directly below, and I’m outta here …

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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