WHAT MATTERS ANYMORE?

“Just add water & watch me boil!”

News out of Europe over the weekend, had me thinking markets were in for a rough patch come today; “Nope dope … BTFD; just BTFD you idiot”! And once again, people everywhere are conditioned to BTFD, no matter the market or where it’s traded.

Which of course brings me to GBPJPY, where in 10 minutes very early this morning after Europe opened, Cable exploded to the upside and USDJPY sat there asleep in an approximate 20 PIP range; since then of course, it’s been back down to the European open (148.40’s) and back up to marginal new highs … a “modified” “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] so to speak. It’s been an excruciating trade, with very little volumes and flows outside of the spikes; pretty much every buy signal coming on a spike up that finds the market 5-7 PIPS higher in seconds.

And it all leaves me wondering if anything matters anymore to the world. I fully realize in trading it’s all about the “setup”, and I’ve talked about that before, but nothing … and I literally mean nothing … spooks any market anymore; about the only thing that matters is who is caught long or short and who is gonna get squeezed in the seconds and minutes right ahead of us. After that it’s simply rinse & repeat.

One trade today, and again I’m pleased with the fills; the liquidation fill was off the high for the M1 by 3/10^th’s of a PIP on the bid; “can I get that in Cable”?

GBPJPY bid up early by Cable strength, and now holding near the highs on Yen weakness; cable really hasn’t gone anywhere since the early A.M., choosing to chop around in a 20 PIP range for the last 6 hours or so. USDJPY bid up now on stock market shrugging off the political news out of Germany and hugging its highs of the day, just a few index points in the SP500 of all-time highs. The manipulators simply won’t let it go down for more than a day or two MAX, and nothing more severe than -1% tops, and then its panic to the upside once again. When does this stupidity stop & SHTF?

Here in mid-afternoon New York time, GBPJPY drifting aimlessly around 148.90 … we started the European day in the 148.40’s; went to the 80’s in 10 minutes … over hours, dripped lower back into the 40’s … rallied to a new high above 149.00 on USDJPY strength via new daily highs in the SP500 … and that price got rejected quickly, and now we are meandering around without a clue … this is the 6^th day of trading GBPJPY; the 8 hour data shows an average range of about 102 PIPS, and for 5 of those 6 days, the market has been anywhere from 30% - 50% under that amount; today being the latest installment of the market not being able to really generate the kinds of moves the algorithm is designed to capture. Part of this, I am sure, is political uncertainty, and the other part is the calendar … this is Thanksgiving week, and within a week or two we’ll be in the Christmas season … could be the reason for lower volatility, but the thing is, this pair can “blow up” at any time, so you can’t be “lazy” when trading this puppy.

Up at the top, the range was there, but the formation off the top was neither a bearish engulfing pattern, or the “three black crows” to make a short trade. While the algorithm did have a few decent signals, overall the approximate 50 PIP blast to the first high in 10 minutes took away a lot of the short covering fuel necessary for a sustained advance, to make long positions worth hanging onto for more than a few seconds … and until the daily & weekly charts stop looking “heavy”, I can’t see sustained advances in this pair with simply new long positions from the spec community. And now that we are into year-end, within a week or two, where is the buying power gonna come from Cable and/or Yen weakness to move this stuff substantially higher on fresh buys?

Overall, I can “feel” intraday volatility dropping some … that’s somewhat normal for this time of year … but, what that brings are spikes at the turns of the 5 & 9 signal generator, and that can be frustrating; however, you just can’t buy/sell on 5-7+spikes in seconds with a crossover … over time it will cost you money. Remember, when trading these pairs … it isn’t the profit you concentrate on, it’s “where’s the risk … where are the stops … how is it trading … when does it feel like it will turn? You literally got no time at the turns … it’s click and done, and don’t worry about what happens next”.

Now late in the day, time for dealer stop hunts … “who’s short and needs a fill at the new high of the day”? Some things never change … I’m outta here … until tomorrow. Onward & Upward!! PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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