Yes, it was a glorious 3 day weekend; I answered no emails, took no calls, and most importantly mentally removed myself from financial markets cuz it was driving me nuts. Now, I’m only somewhat deranged, and ready to get back to trading.
Scanning the horizon, markets are more in turmoil than I can remember; gold especially, seems to think interest rates and economic growth will explode higher next year, leaving it at a gigantic disadvantage when it comes to competing with traditional financial assets. Given the level of carnage seen in the market since Brexit, it’s hard in a rational sense to see gold going much lower in 2017 from where it is now, so many things “baked into the cake” so to speak from the negative side. Since gold peaked in the Fall of 2011 at around $1900, it is down about 40% from its highs; somebody please enlighten me if world debt or U.S. debt has decreased or government has shown any level of competency in reducing spending and spurring economic growth?
And yet, here we are in the mid 1100’s with no relief in sight. The world is still as dangerous a place as ever, geopolitical concerns still very much driving world markets, and the uncertainty of Europe keeping the Euro very much an issue. My only hope is that we aren’t staring history in the face and repeating the trading disaster that started in the early 1980’s after Reagan’s historic win with a 20 year dead gold market. Never underestimate the power of government to keep gold down. When it wants to go up, it does; we simply have no idea what is in store for us going forward, which is why following the gold volatility algorithm is so important.
In USDJPY, I can’t envision a scenario where this pair slows down or becomes less volatile in 2017, given the uncertainties of President Trump’s election and economic agenda, the pure idiocy & stupidity of the BOJ, the likely disintegration of the Euro, and the likely level of volatility in world stock indices. It should be a good upcoming trading year in USDJPY all things considered.
I’m holding off on gold trades today, ditto USDJPY, because of the upcoming Fed interest rate decision tomorrow at 14:00 New York time [also because I’m getting back to the hacienda in the P.M.]; this happens to be one of those occasions when this meeting could provide some very interesting fireworks in financial markets. Then we have 2 trading days and Monday before the BOJ meets and that is sure too be entertaining as well, as “Peter Pan” Kuroda & crew most likely will do something entirely stupid and destructive and set the Yen off in one direction or the other thus affecting everything else on the planet. Until then, most likely crickets.
Over my extended weekend, I had planned on getting the USDJPY tutorial finished and posted by tonight … yea, that’s not gonna happen. I need a few more days to finish it, as I have added some material I think is important for your success in trading this animal. So, have some patience grasshoppers, it will be up very soon.
Other than that, if the sun is shining, it must be time once again to hit the beach for some much needed Vitamin C therapy. Until tomorrow …
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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