RANDOMNESS FOOLS EVERYONE

WHO KNEW? “GANN DID; BERT DID; I DO; HOW ABOUT YOU!”

Over the weekend, I had the experience again [for the umpteenth time] of meeting someone who is absolutely convinced that people “like me” can’t exist; “it’s simply not possible cuz markets are random in nature, and nobody can beat “randomness! How can ‘you’ explain this phenomenon?” [“As if it’s my obligation to defend my career & proven trading results to somebody that starts with a faulty premise; but, it’s the weekend and I feel like playing with this guy who doesn’t yet know I’ll be leading him into the biggest logic trap he’s ever seen.”]

I start by replying, “I’m reasonably sure you must follow some market; are you familiar with gold or the DOW 30 index?” And he says, “Yes, I watch the Dow every day almost; it’s crazy how it gyrates! Gold I watch occasionally, when it’s in the news, but stocks in the Dow I follow pretty much daily.” “Ok, then let’s talk about the Dow since you’re more familiar with it”, I say and then continue, “does the Dow just go ‘straight down’ or ‘straight up’, any day when you’ve watched it, for the entire day?” He says, “Well not that I’ve seen; sure, there are big up and down days, but I don’t ever recall the index going ‘straight’ in one direction for the whole day; it’s just F-ing nuts most of the time; it’s up 70 points and then I go grab some coffee or something and come back and it’s unchanged or vice versa; it looks and feels to me like a mess is going on and most of the time I have no understanding of why it’s doing what it’s doing. One day ‘news’ is bad and it skyrockets, the next day the ‘news’ is worse and it plummets. I just don’t see how it’s possible you make money doing this?”

I pause for a second or two and then say, “You do know you can ‘trade’ the Dow 30 index as a futures contract or as a CFD?” He replies, “Yea, but I don’t understand the mechanics involved … had a broker once try and talk me into opening a trading account to trade the stock indices, but I didn’t do it. But yea, I know they exist and you can make money if you guess right, but Christ when it goes against you … man the losses can be horrific.”

I pause again with him and finally say, “Do you believe in cycles? You know, the cyclic nature of things?” And he says, “No not really … just ‘mumbo jumbo’ for the masses; besides, they’re so unpredictable.” [And this is where I know I have him right where I want him.] I say, “So, your wife has no monthly period?” “For God’s sake man, what’s that got to do with anything?” “It’s a ‘cycle’ isn’t it?” “Well yea, if you want to get technical.”

“And since you don’t believe in ‘cycles’, you’d buy a farm in Iowa and plant corn in December too right?” “Ok, I see where you’re going …‘those’ kind of cycles sure … because you can see them and modern society knows they’re real … the ones you are inferring, not only can I not see ‘em, there’s no basis for them to exist so why should I believe they are real?”

Now for the kill; “Well, I can’t see ‘X-rays’ EITHER and for the life of me have no reason to know why they exist, but they most definitely are real and can kill you if you’re careless with them, just like markets like the Dow 30 or gold. Mathematical cycles or vibrations most definitely do exist; ever hear of a ‘sine wave’ in electronics? How about ‘elliptic wave’ cryptography that keeps military websites and computer networks safe from hackers? You yourself just said a minute ago that the Dow was ‘nuts’ and ‘gyrates’ a lot during the day; are these not mathematical cycles playing out before our eyes with big changes in momentum and direction? And by the way, that just happens to describe vector calculus, so I guess in your world that is meaningless and doesn’t exist also? [I’m on a roll, and I can see he’s starting to squirm a little, as the logic of my argument is eating away his armor.] I will be the first to admit, my algorithms build upon others in the trading field’s successes; most notably W.D. Gann and my mentor Bert, WHO JUST HAPPENED TO HAVE MADE ‘MILLIONS’ THEMSELVES, and can’t have possibly existed except that they did. Together, with what they taught me plus my own original research into ‘exhaustion’ moves, I have about the highest probability you will ever come across of making consistent money from trading; oh, and I been doing it since before you were born!”

AND THAT ENDED THAT! [“Go ahead, go get some shrimp off the barbie and grab a cold one; I know what you’re doin’; it’s Ok.”]

Imagine taking Gann’s ‘Square of Nine’ and printing it out on rectangular paper that was the size of an acre [43,560 square feet] with a starting level of ‘1’ and just going from there until the entire acre of paper was filled with cells; take a crane and lift the starting number of ‘1’ into the sky, and the acre of paper becomes a pyramid made up of 4 triangles bordering each other with a square at the base. And the 4 corners of the pyramid going up to the apex in the sky are the ‘cardinal cross’ numbers. From what I can gather from limited information, this was discovered by him on his 10 year [1909 – 1919] “fact finding” epic journey to the middle east & far east; think of this, 10 years gathering research for trading traveling the “far reaches” of the globe to dusty and long forgotten libraries in Cairo, Beirut, Istanbul, Bombay [Mumbai], Peking [Bejing], & Bangkok to name just a few.

Gann died 3 years after I was born; I was introduced to his work by my mentor Bert, who I had the distinct privilege to study under for about 3 years at the brokerage house we were both at before heading to the trading floor in Chicago. Gann is extremely cryptic and hard to understand from his writings; he doesn’t give you anything, he makes you work for it by going down blind alleys. Give any “Newbie” any of his work [you pick ‘em], and the first words out of his/her mouth will undoubtedly be something along the lines of, “I don’t understand this … where’s he going with this? … how does this tie in to buy/sell signals? … Mercury? … wait … what? ... what the hell does Mercury have to do with pork bellies? … ephemeris tables? … what the fuck are those? … nodes of the moon? … arcs? … 45° angles? … screw this I’m outta here!”

Bert was totally a “physicals” commodity guy; lumber, cotton, & corn were the big 3 he traded; here I was, and all I was interested in were gold, silver, interest rates, and currencies; I had no interest [intellectually speaking] in the markets he was trading, but came to “see the light” in his approach using Gann’s principles. Week after week Bert piled up some huge profits, and changed me from “skeptic” to “total believer” in 3 years time [actually a lot less than that].

Many readers know that over time, I have made adjustments to my original floor trading algorithms; the last major one being in early April of this year. With the tremendous changes in the nature of the way markets are trading now [i.e. greater HFT volume and much greater Central Bank manipulation], it was time for a “total re-write and examination” of the trading algorithms. From this, the “volatility algorithms” [gold, DAX30, crude oil, & soon to be DOW30] that are available for download [free I might add] were born. I can categorically state, the changes I made have been highly profitable.

For example, take the DOW30 on Friday; the FBI announcement on Cankles emails caused quite a stir; directly below, the DOW30 M1 candlestick on the MT4 with algorithm overlay, after the “knee jerk” selling that ensued. At this time, the market was in “buy mode” from the rules of trading this market.

The white arrows are buy signals from the plum line slope change from negative to positive when the plum line is under the yellow line; notice how close to the bottom of the move these signals are. The blue rectangles are of course exhaustion hits for liquidation; can they realistically be any more precise and “on target” in real time for you in getting out? This isn’t just a rhetorical question; find me anything else [in real time] that can come close to this.

Of course, for the last 6 months+ it’s no secret to me; the volatility algorithms for XAUUSD [spot gold] & DOW30 have almost perfectly mapped algorithm exhaustion behavior in both markets, and outside of “Brexit” [where things got more than a little nuts with RM=4 moves the norm for a couple of days], some FED interest rate decision moments, and of course the idiotic monthly NFP reports, I don’t see anything that even comes close to the algorithms ability to make money on a daily basis with a very low risk profile, that you can get your hands on and use to your benefit. Oh, and it’s free; go figure.

Crude oil is still doing well, but volatility has dropped since summer, making it tougher to make money. The DAX30, outside of some days where the market has actually put in a somewhat decent range [150+ points], has seen intraday volatility crater; and if you think I’m getting up at 2 A.M. to trade this and see miniscule ranges and volatility stare back at me … well, it ain’t a happenin’! Which, don’t get me wrong … this shit happens in markets, and when it does you leave it alone until it comes back. As it stands right now, it looks like gold and the DOW30 are ready to return to higher intraday volatilities; coupled with the fact they are U.S. based markets and can be traded during the business day, makes them ideal candidates for trading and making money.

FX? Don’t get me started with how totally fucked up this arena has become; 1) 24/5 market pairs with absolutely no preference to any of the three 8 hour sessions [Asia, Europe, U.S.] to make violent moves quickly and hurt traders with no subsequent follow through, 2) total lack of risk control over your account where stops mean nothing, and 3) because of the first 2, volumes are off 30%+ from 2 years ago, making liquidity and slippage an issue like never before. These are the reasons hedge funds large and small have left the trade or gone out of business in record numbers. I’m not working on an FX volatility algorithm, and I don’t expect the future will see me back here anytime soon [that doesn’t mean “never” though].

It’s 6:30 A.M. here in Paradise; the “impenetrable bacon box” has been successfully penetrated, so breakfast has been a success and the dog is happy cuz he’s eaten roughly half his weight in bacon and roast beef already; it’s that day again, and I feel like the pic directly below.

“Seriously, why can’t these markets open at 11 and close at 2:30?”

Amazing what caffeine does after your second cup of coffee; turning to gold today … well, looks to me like the Friday afternoon “Cankles Blitz” caught some serious short players off guard and trapped them into submission before the weekend … nothing like a Friday to squeeze people who stay at the party just a little too long. Not much range overnight in Asia and from the looks of the HR1, the Asian Chuckleheads traders seemed like they didn’t want to play starting the week off with more uncertainty than I can remember in a long time. Not much of an argument you can make to be aggressively short here … right now uncertainty plagues this market [and others as well], and as we saw on Friday, [not if] when another shoe drops from Wikileaks or the FBI, or even some other source, that causes “concern” for the political process and equity markets react, gold is going to react with it; until things settle down some in that regard, it seems to me the “safe” side of gold is to be long on breaks into the 1260’s. Of course, the algorithm will tell me what to do, but from a “macro” sense if I was a commercial seller, I would be somewhat hesitant in pushing prices lower at this moment.

On the other hand, Friday’s short covering burst could be seen in a longer term view as “capitulation” by the “Johnny Come Lately” crowd who had short positions at less than advantageous prices; just the kind of necessary market action dealers & bullion banks look for before they actively attempt to push prices lower; we’ll see who wins [besides us that is!].

Here at the 8 A.M. open, market appears “soft”; looks and feels like I’m going to be waiting for some kind of “waterfall” sell off to get long; this could be a long day. Half an hour into this today, & it’s Chicago PMI @ 9:45; maybe that will move this some, cuz it’s “chop city” from where I’m sittin’.

Well, there goes 4 hours of my life I can’t get back; what a bucket of slop gold is today. The good new? The DOW30 had some good buy signals that made profits; they didn’t turn out to be exhaustion moves, so I’m not going to show you the charts because you don’t have the manual or tutorial for the DOW30 yet, and I don’t want people losing money trying to “reverse engineer” the process and infer that all the rules and signals for the DOW30 are the same as that of gold. They are different, and if you “do it wrong”, the trading universe is a cruel place.

So, no trades today in gold, as the market spends pretty much all day under the daily calculated white horizontal line and we haven’t seen any type of waterfall action on the downside that would get me long; whaddaya expect with a $7 daily range? Ughhhhh. I’m so outta here, you have no idea … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OPEN A DEMO AND/OR LIVE ACCOUNT AT THE LMFX LINK IN THE “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION OF THE WEBSITE TITLED “OPEN TRADING ACCOUNT – DO IT NOW!”

 
 

 

BINARY EVENTS IN TRADING

“… and so, the key elements of the algorithm are … hey, you in the back? … are you paying attention?”

It’s Friday, and I don’t want to get too technical today because … well, it’s Friday … and knowing humans like I do, a lot of you will have the attention span of a teenager in Algebra class at 2 P.M. on the day school breaks for the Christmas Holidays. [“Oh wait … I meant ‘Winter Celebration’ period … another micro-aggression against ‘Snowflakes’ … OMG, when will I ever learn?”]

But before you anxiously await the “Simpsons” marathon on the big flat screen [“got your gym trunks all laid out with a ‘fresh’ t-shirt for the weekend don’t ya?”] and at least one case of cold “Duff’s” begging to be popped open for the occasion, I want to explain 2 key features in trading that you need to be cognizant of for maximum success; 1) my proprietary “Time Theory”, and 2) “booking & keeping” profits for the trading day.

Both of these are “binary events”, and are not mutually exclusive of each other; in fact, the first plays right into the other. Together, if you heed what I’m writing, not only will your trading be successful, your emotions get kept in check as well, and you find yourself in “balance”. And I’m just here to tell you [“ignore me at your peril & misfortunes, because I know some of you have to learn the hard way as Mr. Market shoves his foot so far up your ass on an early Friday afternoon you feel your throat getting sore.”] that you need to pay attention to both; and while they technically fall outside the confines of the volatility algorithm while you’re trading it on the M1, in an indirect way the algorithm’s “profitable signal probabilities” are influenced by both binary events.

My “Time Theory”, which I developed many decades ago in the trading pits and is as relevant today as back then, is as follows:

G(X) = ΔP – ƩT

G(X) = probability of making money on trading day ‘X’; ΔP = the change in price (or intraday volatility) of the market you’re trading (the higher the better); and ƩT = the time already gone by for the trading day as the market moves ever forward to its close for the day or week.

Simply put, the probability of making money today is HIGHEST when you’re trading an above average volatile market and your trades are made during the ‘early’ part of the trading day. It should be intuitively obvious to you why this is the case; 1) if it’s a volatile market, it’s gonna move, and 2) if your trades are put on during the early part of the trading session, if you happen to have a losing trade, there is plenty of time to make other trades to get the loss back with an algo signal. “Whatcha gonna do at 2 PM on a Friday if you lose money on a trade in gold? Where do you think this stuff is headed into the ‘wee hours’ of the close’? You think anybody is still left at their screens to trade this stuff? Yea, you and the bullion bank … good luck with that.”

This leads directly into factor 2; “once you’ve made your profit goal for the day [in gold use Oz., not money], or you’re reasonably close to that goal ONCE A TRADE IS OVER [not during], you have to have the discipline to stop, book the profit, and give the “middle finger” to Mr. Market and the bullion banks who desperately want you to stay and continue to play.” In other words, you make money and you keep it … come back tomorrow and grow your account some more; remember, opportunity is infinite, capital is finite.”

For me personally, at present my profit goal in gold is about $3 per Oz.; if I make a trade [or series of trades] and find myself up $5 or more, if the markets are moving and daily ranges have been very good, I may in fact might make additional trades; however, and this is important, I won’t risk more than $2 per Oz. on these additional trades; I won’t go below my profit goal; I may give back “some extra” I earned earlier, but I won’t sacrifice any of my profit goal [once earned] under any circumstances.

Turning to today’s gold trade, at the open it’s ….. crickets. God, what a bucket of slop this has turned into lately. And to make matters worse, of course the Chuckleheads traders in Asia bid it higher last night before Europe took it away; it’s what they do 90% of the time. GDP at 8:30 … can this move the market, cuz I’m not feelin’ like a whole lot of people are interested in trading today; whatever happens, no positions into the report.

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it. And like yesterday, “folks, I just can’t make this shit up!”. Today’s [most likely only] trade directly below.

I got in at the exhaustion line [1262.50] and out on the immediate spike up [1265.80]; went another Dollar higher, but who cares. All-in-all, after commissions about $3.20 something and change in profit on the exhaustion line buy. And for you Newbies out there wondering why such a quick turnaround on the liquidation; Easy Peezee, the market is below the daily calculated white horizontal line, which means on any waterfall [exhaustion or other], on the subsequent rally up you got to hit the liquidate button to get a decent fill from the LP, otherwise if you wait for the “turn” they will take their “pound of flesh” and fill you off the market. My liquidation fill on this today was right on the market; and I got this fill because it was going higher when I did it.

The market historical evidence is very clear in gold; over 90% of the time when price hits the RM=1 exhaustion lines, especially on a ‘waterfall’ spike down in price, you will get very quickly a rebound in price from those traders who are short and missed the opportunity to liquidate and are in fact panicking to buy and liquidate their position AND also those retail specs who missed the ‘bottom’ and now think they need to be long.

This buying, when price is below the calculated daily white horizontal line will not [probability wise] usually last very long; it is imperative you liquidate on the way UP, and not wait for the turn in price back down. It simply doesn’t matter if it goes higher from your liquidation; when it turns it can be ugly, and you don’t want to have to be selling [liquidating] in a falling market now do you?

These type of trades have a very high probability of success, only very slightly lower than plum slope changes under yellow when price is above the daily calculated white horizontal line. They are the very highest probability of success trades you will ever see in trading; that doesn’t mean guarantees, so don’t do “stupid shit” like leverage yourself out of your account.

Here we are now a little less than 45 minutes later, directly below.

Ok, you tell me, given the fact the market has just jumped markedly higher AND interestingly enough gone to the upper exhaustion lines and now threatens the day’s high on this Friday, AND THE FACT WE “RANG THE REGISTER [again I might add] already today, do we in fact go back in and trade some more given this hopeful action? For me, “nope” not a chance in hell; given what I wrote earlier in the post, we got a $10 range now with this waterfall, and given recent history [last couple of months] that range I’m betting will hold the rest of the day [and if it doesn’t who cares], so where’s the move gonna come from and go to? Besides, I already booked my profit goal … why in God’s name would I risk that in a “do nothing” POS market on a Friday? “Seriously, do I look like the kinda guy who wants to have sex with myself and mentally ruin a perfectly good upcoming weekend because I did ‘stupid shit’?” [Umm, that was a rhetorical question, OK?]

I’ve been getting a lot of emails lately from people who want to know how I handle all of the stresses of trading, and my typical responses back to ‘em usually go along the lines, “you have no idea the pressure I’m under … the dog … the Mrs. … the turquoise waters & beautiful sand of the Caribbean … Cousin It … chief of Staff Milton Waddums … vegas Jr. … all the brokerage house & LP bullshit. Ya know, it ain't easy being me.”

But, I’m gonna share today my “totally-up-to-now” secret for maintaining “balance” and a healthy trading account along with happy life; I figure it’s time.

For years, as far back as I can remember, I’ve been taking this at least 3 times a day; more if necessary. And man o’ man does this shit work wonders. Directly below, the “secret” of trading & life!

“For best results, take at least 3 times daily with beer.”

Now, since I been takin’ this shit for years, I decided a while ago to help their marketing department promote this wonderful product. So, I took it upon myself to give ‘em some ideas for promotion; I sent them the following pic to use, and I think it kind of sums up what you feel like after taking a few wonderful pills [washed down with some Vitamin C therapy for sure.].

 

And you know what? I haven’t heard a damn thing back from ‘em yet; I’m wonderin’ if they all use their own product to excess?

Nothing like a little humor ahead of a weekend. “Admit it, there for a second I had you didn’t I? C’mon, admit it; who’s your Daddy?” Dog’s fired up for the beach … we’re both soooooo outta here!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OPEN A DEMO AND/OR LIVE ACCOUNT AT THE LMFX LINK IN THE “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION OF THE WEBSITE TITLED “OPEN TRADING ACCOUNT – DO IT NOW!”

VOLATILITY ALGORITHM PROBABILITIES

“Gorilla? … I’m NOT thinkin’ causation here … who cares about the Gorilla?”

Yesterday, I wrote about the “perils & pitfalls” associated with probability theory and how most people [and by default that means traders as well] have a “predetermined idea in their head about the “how/when/where/ and why” things should happen, in what to them is a rational, probabilistic, logical sequence of events and unfold accordingly; only problem is it almost never happens this way, and when pure “dumb luck” strikes most hapless traders associate it with brainpower.

Back when actual trading pits ruled the world, every month new traders would get “released” onto the floor after their orientation; the absolute worst thing that can befall a new trader? Making a shipload of money their first week of trading; “shit this is easy, where the hell has this been all my life?” EXIT QUESTION: “When a market goes straight up or down for the week, and you happen to ‘piggyback’ it and make a shipload of money, how much of this money you just made is directly attributable to you and your so called brainpower?” SHORT ANSWER: “The law firm ‘Zip, Zero, Zilch & Nada’ is calling you!”

The easiest way to make a point is by using absurdity on itself; in other words, going “over the top” in regards to something that at the same time proves your point.

I could easily come to all of you and say, I got a ‘system’ that is 100% guaranteed to be right and profitable 100% of the time; every time gold rallies for the day, this ‘indicator’ precedes it every single time! You interested?”

“Every day gold rallies, the sun rises in the East; just look for gold to rally as the sun rises [maybe].”

“Whaddaya mean you want your money back?”

Of course, we can all see that not only is there no “causation” between the mutually exclusive events, but the same thing happens when gold goes down as well; in other words, all outcomes have a probability = 1.

Ok, so what makes the volatility algorithm work successfully for those that use it? 1) I take the underlying math [messy & complicated that only hurts most people] and internalize it to a visual screen; fact is, you become a “Pavlovian Trader”. You know what makes you money, you see the identifying patterns on the screen, you want that money, and “by God I’m hittin’ that damn button to get me some of that dinero!” 2) As I write in the tutorial extensively, the trading signals “flow backward” from the exhaustion lines, and the internalized math of the M1 signals put us in “the proper conditions” [meaning highest probability you will ever see] for a profitable trade. 3) Along with momentum now on our side, we are in a position of strength in regards our position, because once the market starts heading upward, we can take advantage of the dealers & bullion banks by using their power to allow and/or create “spikes” and sell into it [“Wait … what? … You’re a customer … you’re supposed to be buying here … damn these guys!]. Whether it’s an exhaustion line “hit” or simply a “mini-exhaustion” above average spike up since the trade started, it makes no difference; we’re there to liquidate in favorable conditions, cuz outside of the dealers & bullion banks who are absorbing the buy orders, who else is selling? Short answer: more than likely only us.

A couple of recent examples should be instructive. First a recent gold exhaustion move from 10/24/16, and then the DOW30 exhaustion move yesterday; both are on RM=1 mode. Directly below both charts in respective order.

 

Above, we got exhaustion hit examples in 2 different markets; please take a look at where the moves started. What you should notice is that they are very close [ a few minutes tops] from where a “buy” signal is given via the volatility algorithm when 2 criteria are present; 1) plum line is under the yellow line, and 2) the slope of the plum line changes from negative to positive. And as you will discover [to what should be your utter amazement] in the tutorial, every damn exhaustion move in both markets starts this way! [And there are literally “hundreds” of data points (meaning charts with commentary) for you to look at and see with your own eyes; bull days, bear days, choppy days.]

So, what’s the “upshot” of all of this? Well, it’s the fact that the algorithm always puts you in position for an exhaustion move before it happens; and “it” happens a whole helluva lot more times than you would otherwise think without the data supporting my premise. Without the algorithm, you don’t capture these moves mainly because you don’t see them coming; you don’t see or feel the momentum change in time to position yourself to take advantage of the moves. As such, you either miss the move entirely, or get in late at very bad price that cuts into profitability severely.

Remember the premise of “above average volatile” markets? Ok, if that is indeed the case, then we know with almost absolute certainty that at some point [or points] in the day we are going to see this stuff fly “hard & fast”; question is, can we be there to capture some of it or do we miss it because we didn’t see it coming? That’s why I have always said, “You give me an above average volatile market versus other markets, with intraday volatility that is higher than most, and I guarantee I will make a fortune over time because 1) I know it’s going to move and hit stops, 2) my algorithm will always put me in the proper position to take advantage of it, and 3) I’ll be the only guy selling into strength or buying into weakness when I liquidate while the rest of the world is doing the opposite, thereby assuring me of great fills.” And while I might leave some “money on the table” by getting out early sometimes as an exhaustion move continues on its merry way, I don’t really give a shit because I just booked some serious green for myself and I fully realize the old adage, “bulls & bears make money, pigs never do.” Trust me, do this damn near every day, and you got very few financial worries in life any more.

Now, today’s post is just the “tip of the iceberg” of what’s coming in the tutorial; I get into a lot more detail with examples and I explain the math involved so everybody can logically see why this works and makes you money over time. I literally prove the premise that the algorithm does in fact make money over time if you follow the rules and can exhibit patience & discipline by waiting for your trades; you do that, and it’s only a matter of time before the ‘Pudding Business’ is simply a bad dream!

Turning to today’s gold trade, “seriously folks, I can’t make this shit up.” First and most likely last trade today directly below.

Well, here it is for everybody to see; 1) market price is above the white daily calculated horizontal white line, 2) plum line goes below yellow line, 3) slope of plum line goes from negative to positive, thus giving buy signal, and 4) market moves to exhaustion lines for liquidation. All in all, about a $4 per Oz. profit. “Thank you, I’m outta here!”

Now, did I somehow know gold was gonna do this? In the famous telepathic words of the dog, “Whaddaya fuckin’ nuts?” Ok, so why didn’t I get out on the above average spike a couple of minutes earlier? “Because the daily range is so low at about $5, the probability is very high that will not hold going forward; at the moment I’m in the trade, momentum is clearly on the upside. I’m in around 1268.50, so I’m raising my sell stop as it goes up; my mental stop at the time you are talking about is now 1269.00; I see this bid price and position gets liquidated. Bing! Bang! Baddaboom! Next thing I’m seeing is price hit the upper exhaustion line and I don’t hesitate in hitting the liquidate button; fill is only a few pennies off the high.” Seriously, what more do you want from trading?

But here’s the thing; even if you did liquidate on that spike up a couple of minutes earlier, it’s not even a Dollar per Oz. difference from the exhaustion hit; granted, you may not like the fact, but the overall difference in the scheme of things is miniscule. Bottom line is, you still made money on the trade!

And so, here we are a little later [about half an hour], and you can see just how well the exhaustion lines “pegged” this move directly below.

And quite frankly, the equity markets don’t open for another half hour, so with this exhaustion move in gold making me about $4 per Oz., it’s time to turn my attention to the DOW30 [or crude oil if necessary]. Like I said yesterday, the best of all worlds for a U.S. trader; gold early and then depending on what’s happening, the DOW30 for the rest of the day [when, in the early to late afternoon, most likely gold isn’t doing shit.].

And of course, a beautiful “Chamber of Commerce” day today [like most days really] is likely to pull me away early; we’ll see. I’ll give the DOW30 about an hour to “get its act together” and see if it can do something, otherwise I’m outta here.

And just so you know I’m actually human and alive, and not some robot on life support living in Mom & Dad’s basement in Bumwater, Idaho, yesterday I took some shots from my phone directly below. 

“God, who is that male model roaming the beach?”

I got the beach to myself; dog is running around somewhere, and it’s like I’m ‘Robinson Crusoe’ all alone on some deserted stretch of beach. “Yea, I know, I need a frickin’ haircut … the Mrs. is on my ass … says the dog and I look like brothers … I say, ‘Ok, can I have some bacon now?’ … and that shuts her up.”

Well, it’s official … I’m outta here early … DOW30 can wait for another time … got golf balls to hit, free lunches to eat, and then deserted stretches of beach to myself to contemplate the meaning of life & trading with my BFF … wouldn’t want it any other way … I’m sooooooo outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OPEN A DEMO AND/OR LIVE ACCOUNT AT THE LMFX LINK IN THE “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION OF THE WEBSITE TITLED “OPEN TRADING ACCOUNT – DO IT NOW!”